Draft season is here, and finding value at the right draft slot can be the difference between a playoff run and a lost season. While early-round stars grab the headlines, it’s often the players who outperform their ADP in the later rounds that swing fantasy leagues. Here are three players poised to smash their current ADP and deliver league-winning upside in 2025.
Josh Downs, WR — Indianapolis Colts
ECR: 106th overall (PPR), WR47 (Blitz Rankings)
Josh Downs took a clear step forward in his second NFL season, ending as the WR28 in fantasy points per game—but that ranking doesn’t tell the full story. When Joe Flacco was under center for at least 80% of snaps, Downs showed flashes of real upside: he commanded a 25.7% target share, over a quarter of the targets, averaged 2.38 yards per route run, and scored 15.5 PPR points per game. Had he maintained that pace across a full season, he would have ranked as high as WR21 in fantasy points per game among receivers with at least 50 targets.
Numbers dipped with Anthony Richardson under center, dropping to 21.3% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, 48.3 receiving yards per game, and 10.7 PPR points, placing him around WR44. Still, Downs has proven to be a reliable WR3/4 option who could easily exceed his ADP in 2025 if Indianapolis gets more consistent quarterback play.
Training camp reports are encouraging, with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler noting Downs’ presence and separation on the field, and quarterback Daniel Jones’ ability to provide opportunities in short-to-intermediate routes.
At 23 years old, the former third-round pick out of North Carolina already posted a 72-803-5 line in 14 games last year, and could just be scratching the surface. While size and an unsettled QB situation temper his ceiling, Downs remains a high-upside target in the WR4/flex range.
*Update* – Downs did leave practice with a hamstring injury yesterday, so his injury status is worth monitoring, but assuming he avoided anything major, he should still retain his value.
Justin Fields, QB — New York Jets
ECR: 104th overall, QB13 (Blitz Rankings)
Justin Fields enters 2025 as one of the more intriguing fantasy quarterbacks. His rushing upside is elite—he’s one of only two active QBs to top 900 rushing yards in a season, and 2022’s 1,143 yards rank second all-time among quarterbacks. Over the last three seasons as a starter, Fields has finished inside the top ten in fantasy points per game, and last year, even in just six starts, he averaged 9.2 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game. Only 3 QBs with 100+ carries in a season have ever finished outside the top 12 in fantasy — that alone keeps him locked into potential QB1 territory.
Passing remains a question mark—Fields has completed 61.1% of his career attempts and operates in a Jets offense that isn’t exactly quarterback-friendly—but he showed progress last year in accuracy metrics and turnover avoidance. Through six starts, he ranked fourth in highly accurate throw rate, ninth-lowest in turnover-worthy throws, and 12th in catchable target rate among 31 qualified QBs. Add in an offensive corps led by Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and Fields has a solid support system.
Preseason glimpses have been encouraging as well. He led the Jets’ first team offense on a 79-yard opening drive, capped off by a 13-yard scamper into the end zone. There’s still risk, but the reward at his current 11th round ADP makes Fields hard to ignore. I wouldn’t reach for him earlier than the 10th, but treating him as a late-round QB1 with upside has value written all over it.
Evan Engram, TE – Denver Broncos
ECR: 86th overall (PPR), TE8 (Blitz Rankings)
Evan Engram enters 2025 as one of the more intriguing late-round tight end values, going 84th overall in PPR drafts. Last season’s dip in efficiency (47-365-1) was tied to shoulder and hamstring injuries, culminating in a nine-game absence and his first missed time since 2021. When healthy, Engram remains an elite target earner, ranking fifth among TEs in targets per route run (23%) and third in target share (25%) in 2024. In his two seasons prior, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and finished top-12 in target share each year.
One of Engram’s most bankable strengths is his performance against man coverage—a key factor for receiving output at the tight end position. In 2023 and 2024, he ranked fourth and eighth in yards per route run vs. man coverage, per FantasyPros. That skill could be especially valuable in Sean Payton’s offense, where the “Joker” role has historically produced high-end fantasy results, as seen with Jimmy Graham’s three consecutive top-2 TE finishes under Payton.
Engram’s main target competition in Denver is WR Courtland Sutton, giving him a realistic shot to lead the team in looks from promising second-year QB Bo Nix. If he comes close to his 2023 production (114 catches, 963 yards, 4 touchdowns) and stays healthy, Engram could push for a top 5 TE finish and smash his current 9th round ADP.
