Week 5 is here, and with it comes another opportunity to make the tough decisions that can make or break your fantasy matchup. While some players are must-starts regardless of their opponent, others have matchups, usage concerns, or injury questions that make them difficult to trust. This week, several notable fantasy assets find themselves in unfavorable situations; mentioned below are some fantasy-relevant names that are in line for a tough Week 5 in fantasy. Whether it is an aggressive pass rush, declining efficiency, limited snap counts, or a lack of consistent targets, these players all have reasons for concern heading into Week 5. Let’s break down the numbers behind each matchup and why I believe these four players could disappoint fantasy managers this week.
Tyler Shough Vs Minnesota Vikings
Adding Shough to this Week 5 list is not an indictment of him; it is a recognition of what the Vikings defense has been this season. Over 4 games, the Vikings defense ranks first against the QB position, allowing just over 10 points per game. Along with the strong ranking, the Vikings defense has only given up 3 TD passes in 4 games, while recording 4 interceptions and 16 sacks in those same 4 games. The blitz rate on this defense is astronomical at 72%; Dallas Turner as well as Brian Flores are currently in their bag.
The big negative with Shough and the Saints is the amount of sacks he has taken; in 4 games, he has sustained 12 sacks, and pressure was allowed on nearly a third of his pass attempts. This is considered the highest among qualifying QBs, and the way the Vikings are playing this defense is chomping at the bit to get a chance to play this offensive line. With 16 sacks already in 4 games, I expect them to have at least 5 sacks. These sacks will kill drives and limit the opportunity for Shough and the Saints’ offense. Which is why my expectation for Shough in Week 5 plummeted all the way down to a strong sit consideration if you have another comparable option.
Alvin Kamara Vs. Minnesota Vikings
With Travis Etienne currently on IR, this is a risky must-sit, but I think it may be necessary against a strong Vikings defense. So far, throughout 4 games, Kamara has struggled, averaging 3 yards per carry. This low average is a problem as Kamara is not someone who will get 25 rushing touches a game; he will get more like 7-10 rushing touches in Kellen Moore’s offense. This is shown as he is averaging only 25 rushing yards per game, as well as looking stiff compared to Alvin Kamara of old. This is where health comes into the picture: he has missed practices this week and in the offseason, and even a healthy Kamara is a limited Kamara, so an injury may just stagnate all fantasy production.
Although the Vikings do give up 4.2 yards per carry on defense, I do believe the Saints defense will not hold up against the Viking offense, making the game script heavily favor the pass for New Orleans. Kamara may get a few catches due to the game script; however, I believe the Saints will be passing the ball down the field in an attempt to take control of this game. Alvin Kamara is an aging asset that is not what he once was; if anyone can prove that it will be Brian Flores and the Vikings.
Mike Evans @ Seattle Seahawks
Much like Shough above, Mike Evans on this Week 5 list is not anything against him as a player. Injury has always been a concern for Mike Evans and will continue to be, as he isn’t getting any younger. However, this is the one of the toughest fantasy matchup as he travels to Seattle to play the Seahawks; the Seahawks rank second against WRs in fantasy points through the first 4 games. Within those first 4 games, the Seahawks defense has recorded 6 interceptions and 11 sacks, proving they are a force against opposing QBs.
Now, another concern is the snap count, at an average of less than 60%; it shows that he is very reliant on the TD to cement himself in your starting lineup. This makes his floor way too low for me to trust this week when the 49ers travel to Seattle. I would expect George Kittle to continue his reign of terror on his NFC West rivals, while Evans fades into the shadows in Week 5 with a mediocre 2-4 catch game, making him a must sit in my opinion.
Dalton Schultz @ Tennessee Titans
Schultz is one of the easier decisions on this list, as both his usage and matchup are not in his favor for Week Schultz has scored 7.5 points or less in 3 of the 4 games so far this season. With Nico Collins back in the lineup and making plays, it lowers the floor that Schultz has as a streamable TE.
Along with his declining usage, the Titans are no joke against TEs this season, allowing an average of only 27.3 yards per game to TEs. If history repeats itself, and it often does, I would project a subpar outing from Schultz, as averaged less than 30 yards per game against the Titans in his career, making him entirely TD-dependent. Avoid the disappointment and sit Schultz in Week 5.
Week 5 presents some difficult decisions for fantasy managers, and these four players are prime examples of why matchups and recent usage matter just as much as a player’s name. Although none of these players is guaranteed to have a poor performance, the combination of difficult matchups, inconsistent production, and limited upside makes them players I would be cautious about starting in Week 5. If you have comparable alternatives on your bench or the waiver wire, this may be the week to trust them instead.
