Every year, the hype machine cranks into overdrive after the NFL Draft, sending rookie ADPs skyrocketing and creating unrealistic expectations. But not every talented player walks into a fantasy-friendly situation, and in 2025, there are several rookies being drafted based more on buzz than on role, opportunity, or scheme fit. Whether it’s questionable landing spots, depth chart concerns, or development issues, the following six players carry far more risk than reward at their current price.
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers (WR)
The Green Bay Packers love to deploy a wide receiver committee and have not had a consistent option at wide receiver since Davante Adams‘ departure. I don’t necessarily love the fact that Matthew Golden, coming in from college, wasn’t a target eater and just an absolute wide receiver one for Texas. Now he was very good, 1.85 yards per route run, 18.7% target per route run at his time at Texas, while also having 987 receiving yards. Golden’s strength is his home-run hitting abilities, with his skills as a deep threat.
Despite his skills as a deep threat, I am concerned about his ability to make contested catches at the NFL, and I know for a fact that Golden still has a long way to go developing his route tree. My realistic expectation for him in year one is similar to the production of MVS during his time in Green Bay. Expect Golden to slot in as the team’s WR3 or WR4 to start the season as he continues to develop, but some splash plays could result in high-scoring weeks. Based on his current price in rookie drafts and redrafts, I am fading him for the inconsistent production that is bound to happen this season.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts (TE)
Tyler Warren is probably one of my favorite prospects in the draft. I had him within my top five overall prospects, but he landed in the worst spot possible. Warren was one of the highest graded tight ends as a receiver and a blocker last season while being the number one option in the passing game for Penn State. He is 6’5 and finished with 1233 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. My biggest problem with him having an ADP of 8 in rookie drafts and his current price in redrafts is his quarterback situation.
Anthony Richardson struggled completing passes last season and hovered around a 50% clip for a majority of the season. This resulted in all of the Colts’ pass catchers having down seasons and inconsistent production. Warren’s ADP should take this into account, but it does not, resulting in a steep price to pay for the rookie tight end. In dynasty drafts, I like Warren from picks 9-12. Then, in redraft, I like Warren outside of the top twelve tight ends to start the season.
Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (RB)
Cam Skattebo is one of the more well-known prospects heading into 2025, resulting in a higher ADP than other rookies. Skattebo is a good player, ranking 21st in the country in yards after contact per attempt last season while carrying Arizona State last season. My biggest concern for Skattebo is will his playing style will allow him to be fantasy relevant in a backfield split. One of the biggest correlates behind strong rookie running back seasons is elusiveness. Skattebo ranked 91st in the country last season in that category.
The Giants will likely have Skattebo work in on early downs with Tyrone Tracy operating as the receiving back. This type of backfield split is enticing, but the Giants’ offensive line was one of the worst in the NFL in run blocking rating, resulting in good fantasy production. With no significant additions to that unit in 2025 and a rookie quarterback, that number might stay the same in 2025. As of now, I am not willing to pay the hefty price of Cam Skattebo and think other players around his ADP are better choices.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (RB)
Bhayshul Tuten is an intriguing prospect who ran one of the fastest 40s and is a freak athlete coming out. Last season, he was one of nine running backs who had over 30 runs over 10 yards and 20 runs going over 15 yards/ Tuten was dominant in zone running schemes in college, which is a feature of Liam Coen’s offenses. He finished top twelve among running backs in zone running plays while seeing a significant jump in his PFF grades on those plays. But Jacksonville’s backfield is a problem for him.
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigbsy return from last season after splitting touches. Etienne will operate as the third-down back while Bigsby proved himself to be incredibly effective last season on early downs. Last season, Bigsby saw his role increase as the season went on and finished 14th among running backs in explosive rating while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Tuten’s best chance is to eat into Etienne’s snaps on third down, but one of the bigger flaws in Tuten’s game is his pass protection. Expect Tuten not to receive enough volume this season to be fantasy-relevant.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (QB)
With the Derek Carr retirement news, Tyler Shough has immediately been elevated to quarterback one in New Orleans. Shough was one of the biggest surprises in the draft when he was selected 40th by the Saints over Shedeur Sanders. His tape shows flashy improvisation but mad inconsistencies. His accuracy varies throw to throw, he struggles reading the field, and he’s shaky spotting pressure. Those are massive red flags for a QB’s long-term outlook. The analytics aren’t kind either: 30th in adjusted completion rate, 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in big-time throw rate, and 72nd in deep-ball adjusted completion percentage.
The Saints have talent like Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rasheed Shaheed, but the O-line’s spotty, and Ryan Ramczyk’s retirement hurts. They drafted Kelvin Banks Jr., but he’s a rookie, and it is unknown how well he will perform out of the gate. I am avoiding Shough unless I have a desperate need in SuperFlex leagues in my dynasty drafts. In redraft, he should not be selected in any format as of now until we see some action in the preseason.
Isaac TeSlaa, Detroit Lions (WR)
The Lions were hyped on Isaac TeSlaa, saying he was their must-have guy in the draft. In recent memory, the Lions have nailed their offensive picks, but I am not so sure TeSlaa fits well in Detroit. He ran 68.3% of his routes from the slot in college, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is the NFL’s best slot receiver. So, what’s the plan? Replace Jameson Williams, who’s been in trade rumors? Absolutely not, Williams is a deep-ball home-run hitter; Teslaa’s not that guy. His 16.4% target-per-route-run and 1.45 yards-per-route-run numbers don’t scream “fill that role.”
He’s a big body, maybe a red-zone threat, but developing as an outside receiver will take work. I don’t love the fit, and I don’t think he’s a great fantasy investment. He will battle for the 3rd wide receiver spot in Detroit, which has not provided much production over the last two years. I’m fading him next season, and he is a player I am not drafting in any format.
Final Thoughts
Let me know what you guys think down in the comment section below. Which of these players am I wrong about, and which players will surprise me heading into the next season? But these are my biggest fades that you guys need to know heading into next year. Make sure you guys hit that subscribe button for more Blitz Fantasy Football content, and I will catch you guys next time.