As the 2025 Fantasy Football season approaches, identifying players likely to regress from their 2024 performance is critical for building a championship-caliber roster. Below are five players who may not replicate their 2024 production, making them risky picks at their current Average Draft Position (ADP) based on usage, scheme changes, and statistical concerns.
1. James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
James Cook delivered a career-best 2024 season, averaging 15.7 half-PPR points per game with a significant spike in touchdowns, capitalizing on a scheme adjustment that funneled more goal-line touches his way. However, his contract situation adds uncertainty; he’s skipped voluntary OTAs, and his participation in mandatory minicamp remains in question as he seeks an extension.
On the field, Cook operated in a three-back committee with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, who was dubbed the league’s best third-down back according to Josh Allen, which capped Cook at roughly a 50% snap share. His 2024 production leaned heavily on touchdowns, with 43.1% of his fantasy points tied to scores, an unsustainable figure given his first two NFL seasons showed limited touchdown upside. Additionally, Cook saw 30 fewer rushing attempts compared to the prior year, and with Ray Davis earning early-down work, his volume may not rebound. With too many red flags, I have a hard time investing in James Cook at his current ADP
2. Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers had a standout rookie season for the Las Vegas Raiders, commanding 153 targets in 2024. He set rookie records for receptions (108) and receiving yards (1,144) by a tight end, earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors. However, the 2025 outlook is murkier with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith reshaping the offense. Historically, Geno Smith-led offenses have not heavily targeted tight ends, with no tight end under his tenure reaching near the volume Bowers received in his rookie season.
The addition of Ashton Jeanty, who is projected for over 300 touches, and rookie Jack Bech, alongside incumbent Jakobi Meyers, provides more competition for touches than the 2024 Raiders. While Bowers remains the top passing option, the Raiders are expected to play with more positive game scripts, reducing overall pass volume. Carroll’s schemes have also leaned away from tight-end-heavy production, and with Bowers’ 2024 target share inflated by negative game scripts, he faces a likely slight drop-off from his breakout year.
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield thrived in 2024 under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, finishing as a top-three fantasy quarterback with a 7.2% touchdown rate and a career-high 22 rushing yards per game.. He recorded 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, ranking third and second among quarterbacks, respectively. However, Coen’s departure introduces significant regression risk. Mayfield’s touchdown rate far exceeded his previous career high of 5.6% and will see touchdown regression this season.
The Buccaneers’ offense is incredibly talented and added Emeka Egbuka in the draft, but new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard’s usage of these talented players is yet to be seen. We are drafting Baker at his ceiling right now as the QB6. The rushing upside is not enough for me to reach on him early in a deep quarterback draft this season.
4. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams was a volume king in 2024, commanding an 85% snap share and excelling at the goal line. Which helped him record back-to-back 1,100-plus-yard seasons and 26 total touchdowns over two years. However, his efficiency metrics paint a concerning picture: among 46 qualifying running backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt.
The Rams’ investment in running backs Blake Corum and rookie Jarquez Hunter, who impressed at Auburn, signals a potential shift with Williams’ inefficiency. Williams’ 2024 role as the unchallenged lead back is unlikely to hold, with snap share almost certainly dropping from the past two seasons. While he remains effective near the goal line, his lack of explosiveness and inefficiency will lead to more opportunities for other running backs in LA. With Williams being drafted within the top twelve running backs right now, I would be hesitant to invest in him based on the underlying stats.
5. David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery has thrived in a 1A/1B backfield tandem with Jahmyr Gibbs, posting 13 and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2023 and 2024. However, significant changes loom for 2025. The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, center Frank Ragnow to retirement, and guard Kevin Zeitler, weakening the offensive line that fueled Montgomery’s efficiency.
Late in 2024, Montgomery’s MCL injury allowed Gibbs to showcase bell-cow potential, and the Lions’ staff likely took note of Gibbs’ ability to handle a full workload. New offensive coordinator John Morton’s usage of the Lions’ star players is yet to be seen, but Montgomery seems like the easy choice for regression compared to Detroit’s other stars. Montgomery, a short-yardage specialist with a contrasting style to Gibbs, lacks the explosiveness to compensate for fewer touches. His reliance on touchdowns and a now-altered offensive environment makes him a prime regression candidate.
