Week 1 is finally here, which means fantasy managers are diving headfirst into the action and excitement of tough lineup decisions. Even if you’re still celebrating your draft night steals, it’s worth checking a few key stats to help bolster your Week 1 lineup. Here are the best and worst matchups to keep in mind as you set your fantasy lineup for kickoff weekend.
Quarterbacks
- Best: Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts dominated the Dallas Cowboys defense in 2024, posting a 115.0 QB rating, 70% completion rate, and four total touchdowns across two games. And that was when the Cowboys still had DE Micah Parsons. Over the past four years, the Cowboys have been the league’s best defense when Parsons is on the field—but the worst when he’s sidelined. Add on that the Cowboys allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season (21.1), and Hurts is ready to shoot the moon this week. While Week 1 games can be slow out of the gate, Hurts’ matchup and past production put him atop my fantasy QB rankings for the opener.
- Worst: Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans
While Titans rookie QB Cam Ward may be a great stash and see waiver wire pickup, absolutely do not start him Week 1 — no matter how deep your league is. The No. 1 overall selection out of Miami has to travel to Denver to face last year’s top-ranked fantasy defense at Mile High Stadium. In 2024, Denver ranked 1st in pass rush productivity rate, 1st in EPA per play, and 3rd in opponents’ score rate, while averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. I like Ward, but a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road in Denver is a huge challenge, so he should remain on the bench this week.
Running Backs
- Best: RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard enters Week 1 with a promising matchup against the Jaguars, who allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2024 (24.0). Last season, Hubbard averaged 4.8 yards per carry, ranked eighth in yards after contact per attempt, and 11th in missed tackles forced, finishing as an RB12 in half-point PPR scoring with 1,366 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns. The Panthers’ offensive line graded seventh in the league for run-blocking, and the team looked fully in sync under HC Dave Canales down the stretch. Rewarded with a four-year, $33 million deal, Hubbard is set up for a strong start and should be a high-upside RB2 for Week 1.
- Worst: RB Josh Jacobs, GB Packers
Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs’ Week 1 fantasy outlook isn’t ideal. The Lions allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to running backs last season. With a healthier defensive front this year, plus the addition of first-round DT Tyleik Williams and the return of DE Aidan Hutchinson, it’s reasonable to temper expectations for Jacobs—even though he’s still the Packers’ clear lead back. Add in that Detroit allowed just 17 fantasy points per game to RBs last year (5th fewest in the league), and Jacobs’ matchup looks even tougher. That said, don’t overreact if he struggles in Week 1—he is still a bell-cow moving forward.
Wide Receivers
- Best: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
WR Drake London is set up for a big Week 1 fantasy outing. Atlanta takes on a Tampa team that ranked in the top five in points per game (29) in 2024, while the Falcons finished as last year’s 24th-ranked pass defense. Expect the Bucs to come out shooting, and if the Falcons fall behind early, second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. should look to his top receiver early and often. Tampa will likely stack the box to contain RB Bijan Robinson, opening up plenty of opportunities for London. With TE Kyle Pitts continuing his disappearing act and WR Darnell Mooney returning from injury, London is poised to command a lion’s share of targets against a Bucs defense that allowed an average of 30 fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season.
- Worst: Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
With Ben Johnson gone and OC John Morton still an unknown as play-caller, Williams’ usage to start the year is tough to pin down, and some early bumps in consistency should be expected. The Lions open the season against Green Bay, who allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts in 2024, meaning Detroit will likely lean more heavily on the run game. In addition, the Packers’ recent addition of DE Micah Parsons will shorten QB Jared Goff’s window to get the ball downfield to a speedster like Williams with a re-tooled interior offensive line. Williams’ talent is undeniable, but he should be viewed as an average flex play this week, and nothing more.
Tight Ends
- Best: Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
Pats TE Hunter Henry is a sneaky Week 1 play against the Raiders. Las Vegas allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last season and gave up 10 touchdowns to the position—second-most in the league. Henry quietly led the Patriots in catches, yards, and targets in 2024, finishing with 66/674/2 despite bad touchdown luck. He’s also built reliable chemistry with second-year QB Drake Maye, who leaned on him heavily as a rookie. Even with WR Stefon Diggs in the mix, Henry should remain a trusted target, and this matchup gives him legit low-end TE1 appeal out of the gate.
- Worst: Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders
Even though Commanders TE Zach Ertz finished the 2024 season as the TE7 overall in PPR, he isn’t an appealing Week 1 option. The Giants were the toughest defense in the league against tight ends last year, allowing just 6.7 fantasy points per game to the position. Ertz faced them twice in 2024 and managed only 5 catches for 67 yards combined. Now entering his 13th season and turning 35 in November, it’s hard to see him finding much success in this matchup. Fantasy managers are better off leaving the veteran on the bench and looking elsewhere for production in Week 1.
