Texans (1-3) @ Ravens (1-3)
Stat: The Ravens have allowed 35 points in three of four games this season.
The Ravens’ have held historic dominance over Houston — they’re 13-2 all-time versus the Texans and 3-0 against C.J. Stroud. Extensive injuries from the Ravens could result in of a much needed win for Texans.
The Texans’ offense, despite struggling to establish a consistent ground game (ranked 23rd in rushing), is seeing bright spots from rookie Woody Marks, who recorded 119 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. If Baltimore’s defense can’t shore up its tackling and sack rate (currently near the league’s worst), Stroud might finally surpass his typical sub-200-yard performances against them.
- Houston’s conservative offense could push this game’s pace lower unless Baltimore forces a shootout.
- Texans’ pass-catchers like Nico Collins may see lower efficiency, but garbage-time volume remains viable.
- Texans’ Woody Marks’ workload is trending up, while Baltimore continues to struggle translating run success rate to wins.
- Viewers should watch Cooper Rush’s protection — Lamar Jackson has a 12.6% sack rate (worst in the league), this could easily translate to Cooper against a solid Texans defense.
Giants (1-3) @ Saints (0-4)
Stat: Jaxson Dart took 17 hits on runs and passes, second among quarterbacks last week.
Despite spotty protection against the Chargers, Dart still managed nearly 20 fantasy points, boosted by his dual-threat ability (11.4 from rushing).
Saints defense has been undisciplined and heavily penalized (most penalties through three weeks) with an 0-4 record for the first time since 2012. This Week 5 NFL matchup depends largely on whether the Giants can protect Dart long enough to get their receivers going — especially Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton — against a secondary prone to breakdowns.
- Dart’s rushing production gives him a solid floor, but sack risk caps his ceiling.
- Giants rookie RB Cam Skattebo’s all-around role may grow.
- Robinson and Slayton are viable mid-range options versus a shaky secondary.
Commanders (2-2) @ Chargers (3-1)
Stat: Washington’s defense continues to be plagued by explosive plays, having allowed an NFL-worst 28 pass plays of 15 yards or more.
Commanders coverage issues are especially tied to motion — no team has given up more big plays versus motion, with six alone coming in their loss to Atlanta. That’s a dangerous recipe against Justin Herbert, who already ranks 11th in completions of 15+ yards.
The Commanders’ strong red zone efficiency (78% TDs on nine trips) won’t matter if they continue surrendering deep field position so often. Unless Washington adjusts its defensive, this could become another long day for their secondary — and a rebound opportunity for Herbert after a modest Week 4 fantasy showing.
- Herbert and his receivers (Allen, Johnston) carry big-play upside despite O-line concerns.
- Chargers’ protection remains a weak point; Herbert has been hit 47 times this season, second in NFL.
Chiefs (2-2) @ Jaguars (3-1)
Stat: The Chiefs’ defensive front ranks 31st in run stop win rate (25.5%), while the Jaguars’ offensive line ranks second in run block win rate (76.5%).
Travis Etienne Jr. has taken full advantage, ranking third in rushing yards (394) and leading the league with 6.1 yards per carry. Under new coordinator Liam Coen, the Jaguars’ offense has become far more balanced, averaging 144 rushing yards per game — up 42 from last season. That efficiency has re-energized Etienne, who’s back on pace for another 1,000-yard campaign after last year’s slump.
Jacksonville’s ground game could dictate tempo and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
- Chiefs’ offensive rhythm might depend on game flow — expect Mahomes to counter with faster drives.
- Consider a game script where Jacksonville emphasizes long, physical drives to control possession.
- Jacksonville cornerback Jourdan Lewis has allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap this season (fifth best among slot corners with at least 80 coverage snaps) along with a minus-17% completion percentage over expectation
