College football’s Week 11 slate provided us with yet another day of excitement. Indiana avoided an upset from Penn State by throwing a last-minute touchdown. Oregon avoided potential College Football Playoff elimination with a field goal in the final seconds to defeat Iowa. The ACC saw two of its ranked teams upset in home conference games. Vanderbilt held onto its playoff hopes with an overtime win against Auburn. Some of the highest-ranked teams in the Top 25 breezed to victory, but I would not expect the same outcome in Week 12. Here are some of college football’s must-watch games in Week 12.
#5 Georgia vs. #10 Texas
Location: Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA
Spread: Georgia (-6.5)
Over/Under: 50.5
ML: Georgia (-225), Texas (+190)
Georgia Run Game vs. Texas Run Defense
The Dawgs are going to live and die by the ground game. They’ve proven that in almost every game this season. Georgia is currently averaging 41.8 rushing attempts per game. Georgia’s goal is to pound the rock even in the face of a great run defense in hopes that an explosive run eventually sparks the drive. Georgia ran the ball 31 times against Auburn, despite getting just 2.5 YPC. Georgia ran the ball 39 times against Florida, despite getting just 3.5 YPC. So, for Texas, even if you consistently stop Georgia’s rushing attack, you’re going to face 30-40 carries in this game.
Georgia is currently averaging 4.8 YPC on the season. RB Nate Frazier is averaging 5.7 YPC, and RB Chauncey Bowens is averaging 5.5 YPC. Georgia currently ranks 4th in the SEC in rushing yards per game, averaging 197.2. The Bulldogs are as committed to the run game as any team in the conference.
Meanwhile, Texas boasts college football’s #2-ranked run defense, allowing just 2.4 YPC. The Longhorns are allowing just 78.2 YPG on the ground. Along with averaging 7 TFLs per game, the Longhorns boast great missed tackle percentages as well. Defensive starters Anthony Hill Jr, Jelani McDonald, Michael Taaffe, Hero Kanu, and Ethan Burke all possess missed tackle rates <5%.
Texas has performed well against the run all season. Vanderbilt averaged 6.3 YPC before facing Texas, and the Longhorns held Vanderbilt to 58 rushing yards on 2.4 YPC. Ohio State averages 140 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. Texas held the Buckeyes to just 77 yards on 2.3 YPC. Texas will be facing the most talented rushing offense on its schedule. Will the Texas run defense be able to withstand the pressure of Georgia’s run game? Most likely, but they could be in for a surprise.
QB Scaling Issues?
Gunner Stockton vs. Alabama, Auburn, and Florida: Gunner Stockton vs. everyone else
66%, 6.7 YPA, 190 passing YPG, 3 TDs, 1 INT 70%, 8.55 YPA, 245 passing YPG, 12 TDs, 1 INT
UGA PPG: 21.67 UGA PPG: 39.3
Arch Manning vs. Ohio State, OU, and Florida: Arch Manning vs. everyone else
63.2%, 6.97 YPA, 199 passing YPG, 4 TDs, 3 INTs 62.7%, 8.56 YPA, 254 passing YPG, 14 TDs, 3 INTs
Texas PPG: 17 Texas PPG: 35.8
The results in the box scores from these teams indicate that the winner of this game will likely need only 20-24 points. These two QBs experience substantial drop-offs in YPA and YPG against teams with above-average pass defenses. Both offenses rely on horizontal schemes to succeed through the air. Both Steve Sarkisian and Mike Bobo utilize a high volume of screen passes to capitalize on their teams’ athleticism. How will these schemes fare in a game where elite athletes are abundant?
When it comes to limiting pass production via pass rush, the advantage leans toward Texas. The Longhorns are college football’s #1-ranked team in sack production, sacking opposing QBs 34 times. Georgia currently ranks #128 in sack percentage. As a result, Texas has intercepted opposing QBs 9 times, while Georgia has intercepted opposing QBs only 4 times.
#4 Alabama vs. #11 Oklahoma
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL
Spread: Alabama (-6.5)
Over/Under: 45.5
ML: Alabama (-200), Oklahoma (+170)
Great Defense or Ugly Offense?
Barring an unexpected run of explosive plays, we can expect this game to be low-scoring. Alabama thrives on passing the football, but Oklahoma ranks #23 in yards per pass allowed and #2 in sack percentage. Oklahoma wants to win the game through John Mateer, but Alabama ranks #15 in yards per pass allowed and averages two takeaways per game.
Alabama already struggles to run the ball, ranking #111 in yards per carry. Oklahoma ranks #1 in yards per carry allowed. Oklahoma’s offense ranks #59 in PPG, #82 in YPG, and #61 in Points Per Play. Alabama’s defense ranks #12 in PPG, #13 in YPG, and #16 in Points Per Play.
Vegas betting lines currently project this game in favor of Alabama, with a spread of roughly 26.5 to 19.5. I suggest not being surprised if the total score is less than that.
3rd Down, 4th Down, and Redzone
In close, low-scoring college football games, we can typically look at the critical downs to determine the winner. So, how do these teams perform on the critical downs?
Alabama’s offense ranks #11 in 3rd down conversion rate, #29 in 4th down conversion rate, and #16 in redzone scoring rate. Oklahoma’s defense ranks #13 in 3rd down conversion rate allowed, #31 in 4th down conversion rate allowed, and #55 in redzone scoring rate allowed.
Oklahoma’s offense ranks #50 in 3rd down conversion rate, #65 in 4th down conversion rate, and #1 in redzone scoring rate. Alabama’s defense ranks #48 in 3rd down conversion rate allowed, #123 in 4th down conversion rate allowed, and #6 in redzone scoring rate allowed.
Other Games to Monitor
#22 Pittsburgh vs. #9 Notre Dame (-12.5)
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week to host Notre Dame. Since losing two ranked games to start the season, the Irish have beaten opponents by 26 PPG. Does Pittsburgh have the ability to pull off a massive upset? Eh, we’ll see. Pittsburgh does rank #4 in YPC allowed, #13 in yards per play allowed, and #16 in takeaways per game.
Navy vs. #24 South Florida (-9.5)
As stated in a previous article, the winner of the AAC conference is most likely going to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff: Navy and USF currently rank #1 and #2 in the AAC. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat to win the conference and ultimately a playoff spot.
USC currently sits at #3 in the Big Ten standings. The Trojans are looking to finish the season with two losses and push for a College Football Playoff birth. Standing in their way is Iowa, which just nearly upset Oregon last week. The weather in this game heavily favors Iowa. 1-2 inches of rain is expected in Los Angeles on Saturday, along with decent wind speeds. USC is on upset alert.
#7 Ole Miss (-13.5) vs. Florida
What is a two-touchdown favorite doing on this list? Well, if you recall, Florida beat Ole Miss last season to eliminate the Rebels from the playoff. Florida has already beaten Texas and nearly beaten Georgia this season. Lane Kiffin and his team need to bring their A game on Saturday.
A loss in this game means that BYU will fall out of playoff contention, barring a win in the Big 12 Championship. BYU has outscored conference opponents by a mere 18 points through 6 games. TCU will bring the nation’s #11 passing yards per game offense.
