To recap Week 12 of college football, Clemson managed to outlast Louisville by one point, ending Louisville’s ACC championship hopes. Texas A&M gave us the SEC’s most unlikely comeback win, erasing a 27-point deficit in the second half. Alabama coughed up three turnovers, as the Tide were upset by Oklahoma. Georgia rolled against Texas, and USC scored a fourth-quarter touchdown against Iowa to save its playoff hopes. Our college football regular season is beginning to wind down. Let’s take a look at Week 13.
#15 USC vs. #7 Oregon
Location: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR
Spread: Oregon (-10.5)
Over/Under: 59.5
ML: (Oregon -400), USC (+300)
The Ground Game
If you ask USC coach Lincoln Riley, his biggest fear in this game is likely to be Oregon’s rushing offense. Oregon ranks #1 in yards per carry, averaging 6.3 YPC. The Ducks rank #8 in rushing yards per game, despite ranking #52 in rushing attempts per game. The Oregon rushing offense is highly efficient. Despite Oregon losing to Indiana, Oregon’s RBs averaged 6.44 YPC in the game. Oregon has surpassed 250 rushing yards in six games so far this season.
So, how does that stack up to USC’s rush defense? Well, the Trojans currently allow 4.4 YPC, which ranks #78 in college football. In USC’s two losses, Illinois rushed for 171 yards, and Notre Dame rushed for 306 yards. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love ran for 228 yards on 9.5 YPC.
This will be the ultimate deciding factor in the game, and we’ll be able to predict the game after the first drive or two. If Oregon is getting its averages on the ground, it will be a long day for the USC defense.
The Critical Downs
Can USC win this game on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone? The USC offense has been quite good at maintaining drives and finishing in the red zone. The USC defense has been quite good at stopping opponents in the red zone. How do these stats compare with Oregon?
The USC offense currently ranks #5 in 3rd-down conversion rate, #19 in 4th-down conversion rate, and #12 in red-zone scoring percentage. Oregon’s defense currently ranks #19 in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed, #127 in 4th-down conversion rate allowed, and #131 in red-zone scoring rate allowed. Oregon’s offense currently ranks #70 in red zone scoring rate, while USC’s defense ranks #7 in red zone scoring rate allowed.
College football games have seen total possessions cut by as much as 25% in recent years due to the clock rule changes. Because of this, score margins are much smaller. Therefore, we can typically look at who wins on 3rd and 4th down and in the red zone to determine game outcomes.
#22 Missouri vs. #8 Oklahoma
Location: Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK
Spread: Oklahoma (-7.5)
Over/Under: 42.5
ML: Oklahoma (-290), Missouri (+240)
Expect A Rock Fight
The Oklahoma defense ranks #11 in YPG allowed, #5 in yards per play, #1 in YPC, #2 in rushing YPG, and #2 in sack percentage.
The Missouri defense ranks #10 in YPG allowed, #11 in yards per play, #17 in YPC, #15 in rushing YPG, and #5 in sack percentage.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer is passing for 190.5 YPG in SEC play. Missouri QB Matt Zollers will be making his 3rd career start. These QBs are going to have their hands full against two great defenses. Each of these defenses is battle-tested, having played a combined eight ranked opponents.
Offensively, Oklahoma has been out-gained in 4/6 SEC games. In its two most recent wins, Oklahoma was out-gained by Tennessee and Alabama 862-563. Six forced turnovers by Oklahoma’s defense won these games. Will the defense be able to force a couple more turnovers on Saturday?
Mizzou’s Run Game vs. Oklahoma’s Run Defense
With Matt Zollers making just his 3rd start in college football, Missouri is going to be highly reliant on RB Ahmad Hardy as well as backup RB Jamal Roberts. The two great running backs will likely be squaring off against loaded boxes, as the Sooners will likely dare Zollers to throw into a highly complex defensive secondary.
So, is there a path for Hardy and Roberts to have success against the nation’s #1-ranked rush defense? Actually, yes.
Oklahoma has faced seven P4 opponents. The starting RBs in those games combined for 4.56 YPC on 111 carries. Oklahoma’s overall rush defense stats are daunting, yet starting RBs have found ways to succeed. Michigan RB Justice Haynes totaled 125 yards on 6.6 YPC against Oklahoma. Texas RB Quintrevion Wisner totaled 94 yards on 4.3 YPC. Other RBs, such as Jeremiah Cobb and Rahsul Faison, reached 10 YPC and 5 YPC.
Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts have faced their fair share of defenses. Against Alabama, they combined for 102 yards on 6 YPC. Against Texas A&M, they combined for 219 yards on 7.3 YPC. However, Auburn put the brakes on Missouri’s run game. Auburn held Hardy and Roberts to 64 yards on 2.4 YPC.
Other Games to Monitor
Louisville vs. SMU (-2.5)
Currently, the ACC contains four teams with just one conference loss. SMU is one of those teams. If SMU wants to remain in ACC Championship contention, this is a must-win game. Louisville is undefeated on the road this season.
Pittsburgh vs. #16 Georgia Tech (-2.5)
Georgia Tech is the ACC’s second-highest-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, and it currently controls its own destiny for the ACC Championship. A loss in this game knocks Georgia Tech behind Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU, assuming those three teams win. Pittsburgh will still need some help with a win against Georgia Tech.
#20 Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Florida
There are no conference championship bids on the line in this game, but I recommend tuning into this one. Tennessee defeated Florida by 6 points in overtime last season. These two teams have met 54 times since 1916. Josh Heupel is looking to lead Tennessee to its third double-digit win season in four years, while Florida is fighting for dignity.
#11 BYU (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati
Texas Tech and BYU currently have a stranglehold on the Big 12 Championship game. However, if BYU loses this game, it will fall into a section with four other teams with a 2-loss conference record. Cincinnati is looking to prove itself amongst the top of the Big 12 after losing to Utah by 31 points a few weeks ago.
