Week 16 is here, and fantasy playoff matchups are tight as can be. Whether you’re fighting for a chance at the championship or puttering to avoid your league’s last-place punishment, we’ve got you covered with this week’s best and worst matchups.
Quarterback
Best: QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been quiet as of late, failing to score over 15 points since Week 9, but this week’s matchup may end that streak. The Chargers travel to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team surrendering the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (24.5) and ranked second-to-last in opponent scoring.
Prior to Herbert’s five-game skid, he was the QB2, averaging 21.8 points per game. Despite being a run-first team, the Chargers rank in the top-10 in passing touchdowns per game, while Dallas ranks dead-last in opponent passing touchdowns allowed per game.
Expect Herbert and company to take full advantage of a reeling Dallas defense that all but knocked themselves out of playoff contention last week against J.J. McCarthy and a mediocre Vikings offense.
Worst: QB Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Rookie QB Jaxson Dart has been a fantasy darling this year when healthy. *When healthy* is the big caveat here, though — the rookie signal caller has been evaluated for a concussion a whopping five times in nine career starts.
Even if he can stay upright, Dart takes on a Vikings defense this week that allows the third-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. Minnesota has been stifling against the pass all year, ranking top-5 in fewest passing yards allowed per game and top-3 in completions and passing TDs surrendered per game.
For context, Minnesota just held Dak (QB5) to 11.92 fantasy points last week, the third-lowest total for him on the year. Dart may still end up a league-winner (he faces the Raiders next week), but he has an uphill battle this week.
Running Back
Best: RB Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings
This is a risky one, I know, but Aaron Jones Sr. has quietly seen steady work in both the run and pass game during the Vikings’ two-game win streak. While the veteran back hasn’t scored more than 10 points since Week 11, he continues to operate as the team’s receiving back, converting 8 targets into 7 receptions over the past three weeks.
Now, the Vikings take on a Giants team that struggles against running backs. The G-men allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (21.2) and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game.
Yes, Jones splits carries with Jordan Mason, but the veteran has 80 rush attempts to Mason’s 59 since returning from injury in Week 8. It’s a gamble, but the matchup is there. If there ever was a time for Jones to deliver big, it’s this week.
Worst: RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenneth Gainwell has sneakily taken over Pittsburgh’s backfield. While the 5th-year veteran is technically still splitting snaps with Jaylen Warren, Gainwell has been the far more efficient back, averaging 1.39 PPR points per touch to Warren’s .81 over the past month.
As fun as it’s been to have Gainwell as a secret flex weapon, it might be time to look elsewhere. In Week 16, the Steelers travel to Detroit for a showdown with a Lions team allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Sure, the Lions’ defense completely flopped last week against the Rams, allowing Blake Corum and Kyren Williams to combine for three scores, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening again against a far inferior Steelers offense. Gainwell still has flex merit, but it may be wise to consider better options.
Wide Receiver
Best: WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Everyone had all but written off Jayden Reed’s fantasy season when he broke his clavicle in Week 2, but the 3rd-year receiver returned at just the right time. Reed has hauled in 9 passes on 10 total targets since returning two weeks ago, and now looks to be the team’s top receiving option with Christian Watson potentially out with a chest/shoulder injury.
The Packers will travel to Chicago in Week 16 for a divisional showdown with a Bears team allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. While Chicago’s defense has improved throughout the season, it has been consistently weak against slot receivers, allowing 14.0 fantasy ppg to pass catchers lined up in the slot.
Reed is primarily a slot receiver, and I would expect Matt LaFleur to take full advantage of that in a must-win game. With the division on the line, this could easily end up a high-scoring affair. Reed should have a solid WR3 floor in PPR formats.
Worst: WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
After being one of the most consistent fantasy receivers through the first 11 weeks of the season, Cowboys WR George Pickens has fallen off hard. Over the past two weeks, Pickens has had just 8 receptions for a measly 70 yards.
It’s not just the decreased stats that are concerning, though. Pickens’ effort has been widely questioned for two weeks straight, as the 4th-year receiver was spotted giving up on routes and walking off the line of scrimmage again last week. Pickens’ 33 receiving yards against the Vikings were his fewest since Week 1, and his six targets were the lowest he’d seen since Week 7.
I doubt things will get much better this week against a Chargers defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Pickens is still startable, but he is a far cry from the WR1 status he commanded earlier this year.
Tight End
Best: TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins
The Bengals have been the most automatic TE matchup all season. They allow a league-leading 20.5 fantasy points per game to the position. That’s a full seven more points than the next-worst team (Washington) with 13.5.
Waller is coming off a two-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh and continues to be the Dolphins‘ primary red-zone target when healthy. The Bengals’ defense has been atrocious all year, allowing a league-high 31.2 points per game.Â
The Fins get to return to warmer weather, and with both teams eliminated from playoff contention, expect a scrimmage-style, high-scoring affair, regardless of who is under center.
Worst: TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. has surprisingly been one of the most reliable tight ends in fantasy this year. Since Sheduer Sanders took over at quarterback, Fannin has been the TE5 overall in half-point PPR and leads the Browns in receiving yards.
However, things might change this week. The Browns face the Bills, who have blanketed tight ends all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position, and just two total touchdowns to tight ends all year.
Cleveland’s passing attack struggled against an average Bears defense last week and is likely to struggle even more against a Buffalo defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game. Fannin has been a fun ride, but that ride likely ends in Week 16.
