For those of you lucky enough to be playing for a championship (and those unfortunate enough to be playing to avoid last place), it all comes down to this week.
Week 16 was peak 2025 fantasy chaos. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love all finished outside the top 20 at quarterback, while Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford rose to QB1 and QB2. Running back followed the same script. Ashton Jeanty and Kenneth Walker entered the week off duds with brutal matchups, then flipped the board entirely as RB1 and RB6.
Let’s hope Week 17 is a bit easier to predict. We break down the best and worst matchups of the final week of the fantasy football season.
Quarterback
Best: QB Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans)
Tyler Shough has quietly turned into one of the more reliable streaming quarterbacks down the stretch. Over the last four weeks, he’s been the fantasy QB9 in points per game, clearing 17 fantasy points in four straight and five of his last six. He’s coming off a career-high 308 passing yards on 49 attempts against the Jets, and the volume should remain intact with New Orleans still thin at running back.
The matchup only helps. Tennessee has surrendered roughly 240 passing yards per game over the last three weeks, and allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, giving Shough a clear path to another productive outing in Week 17.
Worst: QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at Minnesota Vikings)
Jared Goff is coming off back-to-back 25-plus fantasy performances and just attempted a season-high 54 passes last week for 364 yards and two touchdowns. Normally, that’s not a quarterback you fade, but this week isn’t normal.
Minnesota’s pass defense has been a consistent problem for fantasy managers, allowing the third-fewest points per game to the position while thriving on pressure and disguise under DC Brian Flores. The Vikings bottled up Jaxson Dart and Dak Prescott in back-to-back weeks, setting the stage for a run-first approach from Detroit and a capped ceiling for Goff.
Running Back
Best: RB Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals (at Cincinnati Bengals)
Michael Carter may have disappointed fantasy managers with last week’s 6.5 point performance, but he firmly established himself as Arizona’s lead-back, logging more than twice the snaps, routes, and opportunities of the next two backs combined. He converted 11 carries into 65 yards against the Falcons, showing efficiency in a role that should only grow.
This week, he faces the league’s most generous rush defense: the Bengals have allowed 1,924 yards to running backs and surrendered the most fantasy points per game to the position this season. With a clear path to touches and upside in both the running and passing game, he’s worth backing confidently in Week 17.
Worst: RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Panthers RB Rico Dowdle has quietly hit 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season, but recent weeks have been a struggle. Over his last four games, he’s averaged just 62.5 scrimmage yards while continuing to split work with Chuba Hubbard. Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers saw Dowdle post nine carries for 29 yards and four catches for 14, numbers that barely moved the needle.
That trend is likely to continue against a stingy Seattle defense that ranks sixth-fewest in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Dowdle remains a flex option in deeper formats, but Week 17 offers a low ceiling for a breakout.
Wide Receiver
Best: WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts)
Parker Washington has clearly emerged as a top threat in Jacksonville’s offense as of late. Last week, Washington led the way with six catches for 145 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, outpacing Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. against a stingy Broncos defense. Trevor Lawrence has been playing at an elite level — Week 15’s QB1 and Week 16’s QB2 — and that hot hand only boosts Washington’s upside.
Week 17 brings a plus matchup, as the Colts rank among the worst defenses against slot receivers and surrender the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. With the Colts dealing with injuries to their top corners, Washington profiles as a high-upside, boom-or-bust flex this week.
Worst: WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Miami Dolphins)
Emeka Egbuka started the season on fire, but that spark has fizzled fast. He hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games, and his usage has cratered with Mike Evans back in the mix. His snap share has dropped to season lows, and last week he saw a career-low two targets.
Since Week 6, Egbuka has topped 10.4 fantasy points just once while scoring 6.5 points or less in five games. Facing a Dolphins defense that allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, there’s little reason to have confidence he will turn things around this week.
Tight End
Best: TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as one of Cleveland’s most reliable playmakers over the last few weeks. The rookie tight end has scored double-digit fantasy points in four straight games and has found the end zone four times during that stretch, including a receiving and rushing touchdown against a Bills defense that had only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends all year.
Week 17 presents a particularly friendly matchup: the Steelers are one of only two teams this season to allow at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to tight ends. With Pittsburgh allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends, Fannin projects as a strong TE1 with touchdown potential.
Worst: TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Dalton Kincaid’s brief stint as a top-12 fantasy tight end is officially over. Since Week 6, he’s topped 6.4 points just twice, and last week against the Browns, he ran 12 routes, played under 40% of snaps, and saw a single target — one he didn’t catch. Buffalo’s offense has shifted back toward Dawson Knox, who now commands the TE1 role and significantly more opportunities.
Kincaid’s talent is obvious, but the production hasn’t followed, and Week 17 won’t be any easier. He faces the Eagles, who allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Kincaid remains a firm sit, even in championship lineups.
