Welcome to the first part of my college football playoff preview. In this article, we’ll be covering Miami vs. Ohio State and Oregon vs. Texas Tech. Miami is coming off a massive win at Texas A&M, and Oregon defeated James Madison in the first half. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Texas Tech will have extra rest and are looking to prove their top-4 status. Buckle up, we have a massive week of football ahead.
#10 Miami vs. #2 Ohio State
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)
Over/Under: 41.5
ML: Ohio State (-350), Miami (+280)
Big Game Comparison
How do these teams look against the top competition on their schedules?
The two best teams on Ohio State’s schedule are Indiana and Texas. In those games, the Ohio State offense averaged 13.5 PPG, while the defense allowed 10 PPG. The two best teams on Miami’s schedule are Texas A&M and Notre Dame. In those games, the Miami offense averaged 18.5 PPG, while the defense allowed 13.5 PPG.
These two teams are similar. Both teams have QBs with steady games and high peaks, RBs with consistent YPC, and defenses that can be stifling.
Defensive Slugfest
Both Ohio State and Miami are loaded with NFL talent on the defensive side of the ball.
For the Buckeyes, players such as Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Kayden McDonald project as 1st-round draft picks in this year’s draft. Other players, such as Caden Curry, Kenyatta Jackson Jr, Jermaine Mathews Jr, Jaylen McClain, and Davison Igbinosun, will all hear their names called in the NFL Draft at some point.
For the Hurricanes, Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor are likely to be 1st-round picks. Others, such as David Blay Jr., Ahmad Moten Sr., Justin Scott, Mohamed Toure, Wesley Bissainthe, Jakobe Thomas, Zechariah Poyser, and Xavier Lucas, will also be drafted.
The overall score in this game is projected to be low, with the Vegas over/under set at 41.5. That doesn’t mean the offensive talent in this game is poor. In fact, Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, Julian Sayin, Francis Mauigoa, and Malachi Toney are all projected to be 1st-round picks at some point.
Statistical Matchups
These are two of the best defenses in college football. Ohio State ranks #3 in YPC Allowed, while Miami ranks #7. Ohio State ranks #4 in yards per attempt allowed, while Miami ranks #11.
When facing elite defenses that do not make mistakes, the offense needs to do two things. Number one is to be efficient, and number two is to be explosive. Both of these passing offenses can do just that. In fact, Ohio State and Miami rank #1 and #2 in completion percentage. Additionally, Ohio State ranks #10 in yards per pass attempt, while Miami ranks #17.
On the ground, each team will rely on the legs of its featured running back. Ohio State RB Bo Jackson is averaging 6.2 YPC on the season. He had 83 yards on 4.9 YPC against Indiana. Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr is averaging 5.4 YPC on the season. He had 172 yards on 10.1 YPC against Texas A&M.
One Wildcard
Throughout the season, Brian Hartline has called plays for Ohio State. The Buckeyes have averaged 34.9 PPG, ranking #16 in college football. Now, HC Ryan Day is taking over the play-calling duties. Will the offense have any changes in philosophy? We’ll see.
Score Prediction
Due to the volume of games throughout the season, I have stayed away from score predictions. Now that we’re in the final games of the college football season, I will have some fun predicting the score.
Ohio State: 20
Miami: 13
#5 Oregon vs. #4 Texas Tech
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
Spread: Oregon (-2)
Over/Under: 51.5
ML: Oregon (-135), Texas Tech (+115)
Big Game Comparison
Neither of these teams played a strong out-of-conference opponent, and metric-based comparison can become more difficult across conferences. Whereas Ohio State and Miami had multiple OOC matchups, including Texas, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame.
The two strongest opponents that Oregon faced were Indiana and USC. Oregon averaged 31 PPG while allowing 28.5 PPG. For Texas Tech, its two strongest opponents were BYU and Utah. Texas Tech averaged 32.3 PPG and allowed 8 PPG.
To judge these results, you need to determine the strength of each conference. The Big Ten and Big 12 split 4 OOC games, with each conference going 2-2. But, Oregon’s strength of schedule ranks at #14, while Texas Tech’s ranks at #54. Texas Tech’s performances against highly ranked opponents have been more convincing, while Oregon has faced better opponents.
Dominant, Yet Susceptible Defenses
These two defenses rank amongst the best in college football in the main categories. Texas Tech ranks #2 in yards per carry allowed and #6 in yards per pass allowed. Oregon ranks #20 in yards per carry allowed and #3 in yards per pass allowed. Texas Tech ranks #2 in yards per play allowed, while Oregon ranks #5.
Now that you’ve read that information, you might wonder how these defenses can also be susceptible. Well, these defenses tend to fall apart in the red zone. Texas Tech comes in at #41 in red zone scoring rate allowed, while Oregon comes in all the way down at #120. Oregon has one of college football’s worst red zone defenses.
Additionally, these two defenses do not play with discipline. Oregon’s defense ranks #86 in defensive penalties per game, while Texas Tech ranks #111. Oregon ranks #112 in defensive penalty yards per game, while Texas Tech ranks #127.
Explosive Plays
Yardage on offense will be hard to find in this game. With two defenses among the best in college football in yards per play, both offenses will need to hunt explosive plays to create scoring opportunities.
The two quarterbacks are similar in their yards-per-attempt numbers. Texas Tech QB Behren Morton averages 8.8 YPA, while Oregon QB Dante Moore averages 9 YPA. Oregon has the most explosive wide receiver in this game. Malik Benson averages 17.9 yards per catch.
At RB, Oregon’s trio of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr averages a combined 7.3 yards per carry, and each of them has a run of 60+ yards. Texas Tech’s running backs, Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams, are explosive in their own right. Their yards-per-carry average is lower, at 5.5, but Dickey has a long touchdown run of 71 yards.
The explosive edge goes to Oregon, though Texas Tech’s advantage at defensive line will play a role in how effective Dante Moore can truly be downfield.
The Bye Week
Last year, every team that had the bye week in the playoffs lost its first game. How does the bye week factor into this game?
Well, because Oregon was playing James Madison, Texas Tech knew it would play Oregon. Ohio State, for example, didn’t know if Texas A&M or Miami would win. Indiana didn’t know if Alabama or Oklahoma would win. This similar situation affects Georgia, too, which knew that Ole Miss would undoubtedly beat Tulane. So, Texas Tech will have had 3 1/2 weeks to game plan for Oregon.
Until the G5 teams are removed from the playoffs, these advantages will persist. But, until then, it remains an advantage for the teams in Texas Tech’s position.
Score Prediction
Texas Tech: 27
Oregon: 24
