Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
Quarterbacks to Start
Caleb Williams CHI
Caleb Williams has stabilized his fantasy football production over the past month, even if the ceiling hasn’t been elite every week. He ranks QB8 in fantasy points per game, but only has two QB1 finishes in his last five games, which highlights some volatility. Over that stretch, Williams has been more volume-driven than efficiency-driven, ranking 13th in passing yards per game but just 23rd in yards per attempt. His accuracy metrics also lag behind, sitting 33rd in accurate throw rate, and has been a massive problem in his consistency this year. Still, he has delivered at least 19 fantasy points in three straight games, including a season-high 330 passing yards last week. That yardage spike matters heading into Week 18, as it signals increased trust in the passing offense in the right matchups.
Williams’ Week 18 outlook sets up favorably against a Detroit defense that has quietly become vulnerable through the air. Since Week 13, the Lions rank 11th-worst in yards per attempt allowed and have generated pressure at one of the lowest rates in the league. That lack of pressure is key for Williams, who performs best when kept clean in the pocket. Detroit has also allowed the 13th-most passing touchdowns in that span, and three quarterbacks in their last six games have thrown for at least 366 yards. Williams already scored 20.9 fantasy points against the Lions earlier this season, and Chicago still has seeding motivation entering the finale. Given his recent production and the matchup profile, Williams is a clear start in fantasy football and profiles as a top-10 option in Week 18.
Jaxson Dart NYG
Jaxson Dart’s rookie season has been uneven, but his fantasy football production remains strong thanks to elite rushing usage. Since Week 4, Dart ranks QB8 in fantasy points per game, largely driven by 7.2 rushing attempts and 41.4 rushing yards per contest. He has scored nine rushing touchdowns, which continues to raise his weekly floor even when passing efficiency dips. Dart’s recent passing numbers have cooled, ranking 30th in yards per attempt and 28th in passing yards per game among 42 qualifying quarterbacks. Over the past four weeks, he has posted a modest 3-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and finished as QB23 in that span. Despite those concerns, he has still produced at least 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games, showing his ceiling remains intact.
Week 18 offers Dart a prime bounce-back opportunity against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and continues to hemorrhage production through the air. Since Week 13, the Cowboys have surrendered the highest yards per attempt in the NFL and rank second-worst in CPOE and passer rating allowed. Even with improved efficiency metrics recently, opposing quarterbacks have averaged nearly 250 passing yards per game over Dallas’ last three contests. Dart’s rushing profile gives him insulation against any passing struggles, making him especially valuable in 4 point passing touchdown formats with his legs. In a matchup that historically produces quarterback explosions, Dart is a strong Week 18 start and a potential league-winning option.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Baker Mayfield TB
Baker Mayfield’s recent fantasy production has been misleading when viewed through surface-level box scores. While he scored 21.4 fantasy points last week, it came with two interceptions, a lost fumble, and inefficient play that continues a troubling trend. Mayfield has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and fewer than 15 points in four of his last six. Since Week 12, he ranks 24th in passing yards per game and 25th in yards per attempt among 29 quarterbacks. His efficiency has cratered further when adjusted for volume, ranking 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Outside of last week, his only QB1 finish since Week 11 came back in early December, underscoring how rarely he delivers ceiling performances.
The Week 18 matchup against Carolina makes Mayfield a risky start in a must-win game. The Panthers have allowed just 12.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since Week 10 and have held every passer except one under 20 points during that span. Carolina’s defense ranks sixth in success rate per dropback since Week 13 and has consistently forced inefficient drives. Mayfield already struggled against this unit earlier in the season, finishing as QB21 in their previous meeting. While Tampa Bay has playoff motivation, the matchup and Mayfield’s recent efficiency trends point to another capped fantasy outcome. Outside of Superflex formats, Mayfield should be viewed as a sit in Week 18.
Jared Goff DET
Jared Goff enters Week 18 coming off his worst fantasy football performance of the season, posting just 2.1 points in Week 17. While that outing was extreme, it highlighted the volatility that comes with Goff’s environment-dependent production. He has historically struggled outdoors and on the road, averaging just 12.2 fantasy points per game in five career starts at Soldier Field. Despite ranking second in passing yards per game and eighth in yards per attempt this season, his production dips sharply away from controlled conditions. Goff has gone under 256.5 passing yards in five of eight road games and four of six outdoor games in 2025. Even with strong season-long metrics, the situational factors make this a difficult spot.
Week 18 sets up poorly for Goff as he heads into cold, windy conditions against a Bears defense playing for seeding. Since Week 13, Chicago ranks 14th in CPOE allowed and has limited explosive passing plays at a league-average rate. The potential absence or limitation of Amon-Ra St. Brown further clouds Goff’s ceiling. While Detroit may play with pride, fantasy football managers cannot rely on motivation alone. Goff’s splits and historical struggles in Chicago make him a risky bet in championship week. Given the environment and matchup, Goff is best viewed as a sit unless options are extremely limited.
Running Backs to Start
Aaron Jones MIN
Aaron Jones has quietly stabilized his fantasy football value late in the season with consistent volume and efficiency. Since Week 14, Jones has averaged 18.3 touches and 74.3 total yards per game, keeping him firmly involved in Minnesota’s offense. While he ranks just RB29 in fantasy points per game over that span, his usage profile suggests more upside than the raw totals indicate. Jones has posted a 4.6 percent explosive run rate and continues to create yardage despite a modest missed tackle rate. He has scored 26.6 fantasy points across his last two games, including 15.3 PPR points last week. With Jordan Mason potentially sidelined again, Jones’ workload could remain secure heading into the finale. This also could be his last career NFL game, and he has a matchup against his former team in the Packers.
Week 18 presents an ideal matchup against a Green Bay run defense that has collapsed down the stretch. Since Week 13, the Packers have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt. That level of early-down leakage plays directly into Jones’ skill set as a one-cut runner. Green Bay also has little incentive to push starters in a meaningless game, which further tilts the matchup in Jones’ favor. Revenge narratives aside, the numbers strongly support his outlook entering the week, setting him up for another strong performance. Jones is a reliable fantasy football start in Week 18 and profiles as a strong RB2 with upside.
Malik Davis DAL
Malik Davis enters Week 18 as one of the intriguing plug-and-play options. In Week 17, he stepped into a featured workload after Javonte Williams left early, and Davis immediately handled 20 carries while topping 100 rushing yards. He ran with decisiveness and efficiency between the tackles, averaging over five yards per attempt and consistently staying on schedule for the offense. Even without meaningful receiving production, the rushing volume alone created a strong fantasy scoring profile. The usage also matters because Dallas leaned on him in neutral and positive game scripts, signaling the coaching staff trusts him to handle a full workload. Javonte Williams is expected to miss this week with a shoulder injury, placing Davis back into that workload this week.
The Week 18 matchup against the Giants strengthens Davis’ case as a fantasy football start, assuming his role holds. New York has been one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs, and the matchup supports both rushing efficiency and carry volume. This season, the Giants have allowed the 4th most points per game to running backs while giving up a bottom-five explosive run rate over the course of the season. While Dallas also has nothing to play for, they will be rolling out their starters in a great matchup. If Davis again pushes toward 18–22 touches, that workload alone places him firmly in RB2 territory with upside. Davis should be started with confidence this week in a favorable matchup.
Running Backs to Sit
Bucky Irving TB
Bucky Irving’s fantasy value has steadily decreased over the past month, resulting in declining trust for managers. He has failed to exceed 8.3 fantasy points in three consecutive games despite continuing to receive early-down rushing volume. While the carry totals remain respectable, Irving has lost access to high-value touches, including goal-line opportunities. Notably, he has not recorded a single carry inside the five-yard line all season, severely limiting his touchdown upside. His snap share has hovered around the mid-50 percent range, signaling a shift away from a featured role. Sean Tucker has taken over short-yardage work, while Rachaad White continues to command a sizable portion of snaps. That backfield split has significantly lowered Irving’s fantasy ceiling.
The Week 18 matchup against Carolina does little to improve Irving’s outlook, keeping him firmly in sit territory. The Panthers already limited him earlier this season, holding him without a reception and keeping him out of the end zone. Carolina’s defensive structure forces inefficient rushing production and limits explosive runs between the tackles. Irving’s recent usage suggests his ceiling is capped at modest yardage totals without scoring equity. Without consistent targets in the passing game, his fantasy floor remains fragile. Until Irving can regain a stronghold on the touches within the red zone, a player with little receiving upside is not an option I would like in my lineup. Irving is ranked as a high-end RB3 entering this week and is a landmine I am avoiding in Week 18.
Woody Marks HOU
Woody Marks returned to action in Week 17 with strong surface-level usage but disappointing fantasy football results once again. Despite handling 20 total touches against the Chargers, Marks failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in a favorable game environment. That inefficiency has become a recurring issue, as he has now failed to crack 10 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Over that stretch, his rushing efficiency has dipped sharply, averaging just over three yards per carry while struggling to create yards after contact. Even when volume has been present, Marks has rarely produced explosive plays or chunk gains. Fantasy football managers hoping workload alone would carry his value have been repeatedly burned late in the season. The combination of declining efficiency and limited scoring has capped his weekly upside.
The Week 18 matchup against Indianapolis further solidifies Marks as a sit this week. The Colts have limited rushing efficiency effectively over the past month, allowing the 8th-lowest explosive run rate and 9th-fewest yards per game. Marks already struggled against this unit earlier in the season, finishing with fewer than eight fantasy points in that meeting. While his snap rate and touch share remain respectable after Jawhar Jordan’s breakout, inefficiency continues to limit his ceiling. Despite the volume, he has not had consistent production, and in a tough matchup, it is hard to trust him in a must-win situation. Marks is an RB3 entering Week 18 and will need to find the end zone to reach that 10-point mark he has struggled to get to over the season.
