For the 31st time, UFC heads to England, with a country-high 17th time in London. Many of the fighters are one of the country’s natives. Among them, three of them put their unbeaten record on the line, along with three others. Two fights on this card give fighters the chance to get themselves ranked. And wrapping it all up is a fast track to a battle for a UFC title in the future.
(All odds from DraftKings)
Featherweight Bout: (1) Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy
The O2 and fans around the world are getting given a treat of a main event, with two of the best featherweights in the division. Odds are that the winner of this contest will have the opportunity to face Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight championship.
Movsar Evloev has dominated his time in the octagon, picking up 19 straight wins since turning pro. Since entering the UFC, he hasn’t ended a fight early. But that’s not to take away from his victories, having won all nine bouts by decision, eight of which were unanimous. His opponents have been quality as well: No. 2 Diego Lopes, No. 5 Aljamain Sterling, No. 8 Arnold Allen. However, it has been over a year since his last bout.
On the other side, Lerone Murphy picked up his first knockout since 2021, landing a spinning elbow to knock out Aaron Pico. He can strike very well, landing almost two strikes more than he takes, with a 54% accuracy clip, while defending 62%.
Murphy has the slight edge in striking, but he’s at a hefty disadvantage, as Evloev lands nearly five takedowns per fight. Murphy only defends the takedown 51% of the time. Murphy can land the takedown a time or two per fight, and Evloev isn’t the best as a defensive grappler. Murphy’s best way to get to the front of the line to face Volk is to keep the bout upright or recreate the Pico fight.
Prediction: Movsar Evloev (-250)
Best Bet: Lerone Murphy Over 0.5 Takedowns (+120)
Featherweight Bout: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell
Just one fight into his UFC career, Luke Riley earns a co-main fight in his home country. He did earn it after picking up a big knockout win against Bogdan Gand in his debut. In that fight, Riley entered round two trailing in the fight, having been taken down four times. He’s proven that he can end fights whenever he wants, having knocked out nine of his 12 victims.
Michael Aswell picked up his first UFC similarly, knocking out Lucas Almeida in round one. Aswell is a solid striker himself, landing a wealth of shots in his fights. His recklessness with certain strikes is made up with his power, having clinched six total KO wins.
Both fighters can batter each other. Riley has the advantage when it comes to power strikes, but Aswell will chip away until his opponents wears down.
Prediction: Luke Riley (-198)
Best Bet: Fight Not to Go the Distance (+100)
Welterweight Bout: (13) Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson
After a long, dominating career in Bellator, Michael “Venom” Page has graced the UFC with a 3-1 record across his four fights. He returns to the welterweight division after moving up a weight class and going 2-0. His bouts at this class have resulted in a 1-1 record in the UFC welterweight division, with a win over Kevin Holland and a loss to current No. 2 Ian Machado Garry.
He’s a smart striker who throws a ton of strikes and is very accurate, while not taking too much damage. He has found himself on the mat from takedowns twice or more in three of his four matches. However, he’s able to ward off many of the attempts, as he defends the takedowns at a 67% mark.
He faces a fellow Englishman in Sam Patterson. This is a big step up for him, having gone 4-1 in the UFC. He’s a versatile fighter who can secure submissions in plenty of ways (2 rear naked chokes, 1 arm triangle, 4 guillotines). He can land big shots, as he’s shown his last two times out, and six times.
This is Patterson’s chance to enter the upper echelon of welterweights in the UFC. To have a name in the same breath as many of these fighters in the deepest division in the company would be a huge stepping stone in his career.
Prediction: Michael Page (-192)
Best Bet: Sam Patterson +3.5 (-120)
Light Heavyweight Bout: Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane
There may be no more exciting debut than Iwo Baraniewski’s. Using a direct quote from Daniel Cormier from his commentary, “They’re just fighting!” In the 90 seconds that he and Ibo Aslan were upright for, Baraniewski knocked down Aslan, was knocked down, stumbled Aslan again, before knocking him down and out to end it.
Never has he had to work deep into fights, having ended all of his wins in the first round (five knockouts, two submissions). The striking is more of Baraniewski’s calling card. He throws heavy, often, and accurately.
He faces Austen Lane, who is more than capable of popping his opponents (11 knockouts). His knockout of Richard Jacobi on the Contender Series was his pathway to the UFC. Since then, his career with the premier company has left a lot to be desired, having gone 1-4, with a no contest is his first UFC bout.
His glaring flaw is his chin, having had his lights put out in six different instances. He’s only ever seen the end of a fight once, and it was his most recent W. He controlled the cage for over eight minutes, which showcased his plus grappling ability. Dominating the cage is how he could beat a scary monster like Baraniewski.
Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski (-600)
Best Bet: Round and Exact Method of Victory: Round 1- KO/TKO/DQ (-175)
Middleweight Bout: (11) Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
After a big loss to Anthony Hernandez, which stifled his climb up the Middleweight rankings, Roman Dolidze is looking to return to the win column. Dolidze is a powerful striker, though his accuracy is a bit wild (41% accuracy). He’s not super aggressive as a grappler, landing just a takedown per fight. His is very battle tested, has the endurance to go deep, but can and will finish a fight (11 finishes).
He might get into a striking exchange against Christian Leroy Duncan. CLD has plenty of power in his hands, with a multitude of tricks in his bag to knock out his opponents. He’s very technical in his striking and will want to keep this fight on his feet.
CLD is susceptible to getting taken down (20% defense). In his loss against Gregory Rodrigues, he was taken to the mat four times, to which Rodrigues had control for nearly nine minutes in the 15-minute contest. If he wants to win, he needs to stay upright. Dolidze is going to want to tap into his grappling more and control the pace of the fight.
Prediction: Roman Dolidze (+340)
Best Bet: Roman Dolidze Over 0.5 Takedowns (-160)
Featherweight Bout: Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva
What better scenario than to make your UFC debut in your home country? Well, the scenario is coming together for Kurtis Campbell. For this chance, he used just 80 seconds of the scheduled fifteen minutes to knock out Demba Seck. He isn’t a one-trick pony, in his knockout methods, having dropped his opponents from head strikes, liver-kicked his way to victory, and even chopping his opponents’ legs down for a technical knockout.
Danny Silva is going to have to keep the distance when striking and time his takedowns properly to have a solid chance of victory. Both of his UFC wins are by split decision, doing just enough to find ways to win, whether that’s slightly edging the advantage with significant strikes landed or throwing with more accuracy.
“The Pink Panther” is going to want to put on a show in front of the country and will have the crowd in his favor. Silva needs to find a way to dictate the pace and take the air out of the O2.
Prediction: Kurtis Campbell (-238)
Best Bet: Kurtis Campbell Round 1 Point Spread -1.5 (-150)
Lightweight Bout: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola
After a forgettable 1-2, 1 no contest first run in the UFC, Mason Jones’ second run has been what was expected from him the first time through. In his most recent win, Jones was able to land two takedowns and big shots to knock out Bolaji Oki.
He can throw in bunches, landing 81 significant strikes against Jeremy Stephens. But, he’s not one-dimensional, landing 10 takedowns in his last two fights, while averaging over four per contest. He’s looking for a redo of his most recent loss: the last fight of his first UFC run, which took place in this same arena.
Looking to spoil the redemption opportunity is Axel Sola, who picked up a win in his UFC debut. There’s two differences in this fight, as Sola doesn’t enter this fight on short notice, as he did against Rhys McKee. The other factor is he’s fighting at lightweight, the class he’s been used to, after fighter at welterweight his last time out. He’s a big-time striker who has the gas tank if fights need to go deep. Sola can outstrike his opponent and end fights on his own terms (7 finish wins).
Prediction: Mason Jones (-135)
Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (-160)
Featherweight Bout: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita
Across his last nine fights, Nathaniel Wood has seen his fights go all 15 minutes, to which he’s 7-2. This isn’t to say his fights are fireworks, as he can throw viciously and often, while being able to absorb a plethora of shots. But he’s a decent grappler, landing about 1.5 takedowns per fight, while defending the takedown at an admirable 73%. He can definitely end fights, though, having the previous 10 fights before that end within the 15 minutes, being the victor in eight of them.
As for his opponent, Losene Keita dominated the smaller professional MMA scene, picking up 16 wins in 17 trips to the octagon. The lone loss is one that Keita wishes he could have back, as it wasn’t really his fault. At Oktagon 45, Keita took on Mate Sankidze in a featherweight title unification fight. In this fight, Keita landed a takedown and was controlling the tempo of the fight, when he would suffer a leg injury, leading to a doctor’s stoppage TKO.
He’s been off since 2024, though he has gone through a fight camp. In September, he was scheduled to fight Patricio Pitbull in Paris. He failed to make weight, and Pitbull declined to fight him for this reason, so rust could play a minimal factor. However, Keita is a great striker who can end fights on the feet, and he’s been chomping at the bit to return to the octagon.
Prediction: Nathaniel Wood (+200)
Best Bet: Nathaniel Wood +5.5 (-125)
Heavyweight Bout: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco
After entering the UFC with a perfect 9-0, following a first-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series, Mario Pinto hasn’t slowed down. In his win against Austen Lane, he lost the first round, being dropped by his advisory. He was able to clinch the KO win in round two. Most recently, he was able to land three of his four takedowns, finishing Jhonata Diniz with ground and pound.
He faces Felipe Franco, who bounced back after a loss on Dana White’s Contender Series, with two first-round wins. This is the standard for Franco’s career, having picked up first-round finishes in all 10 of his wins. In the loss, Franco wasn’t able to hold on for 12 more seconds before the final horn. The judges had the first two rounds even, and the third round was close.
These fighters are going to look for the quick out, as they’ve done so many times in their careers. Both throw bombs, so it wouldn’t be shocking if one of these fighters is face down on the mat in the first five minutes.
Prediction: Mario Pinto (-900)
Best Bet: Fight to Start Round 2: No (-115)
Middleweight Bout: Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Antonio Trocoli
Needing just 76 seconds on Dana White’s Contender Series, Mantas Kondratavičius makes his UFC debut against Antonio Trocoli. Early wins have been the name of his game, having picked up six knockouts and two submissions. His lone blemish on his record was a second-round submission.
Trocoli should’ve grandly entered the UFC. On the Contender Series Season 3, he picked up a neck crank submission win in the first round. Even more impressive, it was reported that Trocoli broke his foot on his first kick and still battled through the injury. However, this fight was changed to a no contest, after it was reported that he failed a drug test.
Nearly five years later, Trocoli made his UFC debut, where he was knocked out by Shara Magomedov. Following that, he was submitted by Tresean Gore, and then most recently by unbeaten Mansur Abdul-Malik.
He was once a good grappler and striker, but this was before a failed drug test and a forgettable start to his UFC career.
Prediction: Mantas Kondratavičius (-800)
Best Bet: Fight to Start Round 2: No (-160)
Heavyweight Bout: Louie Sutherland vs. Brandon Peričić
Louie “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sutherland looks to pick up his first win in a major promotion after suffering losses in PFL, Bellator, and most recently, UFC. His UFC loss was to Valter Walker, as the most recent victim of his four-fight heel hook win streak.
However, Sutherland has heavy hands, picking up eight of his ten wins by knockout. He’s going to want this fight to end early, having picked up seven wins in the first round, while going 2-3 in fights that go the distance.
He takes on Brando Peričić, who clinched his first UFC win in under two minutes. Similar to his counterpart, winning early is what he wants. Peričić has won all of his fights in the first round. He’s never seen a third round in the professional ranks, with his lone loss happening in the second round.
As is the case for most heavyweights, the latter rounds are fun for nobody, as most of the time, the big boys gas out. Both fighters are going to search for the quick finish.
Prediction: Brando Perčić (-250)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)
Lightweight Bout: Shem Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
After both fighters lost their UFC debuts, the O2 gives both Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady a chance to pick up their first wins in the UFC. Rock was swept 30-27 by Nurullo Aliev back in November, picking up just the second loss of his professional career.
Before that loss, Rock was on a four-fight win streak, including three by submission, all by rear naked choke. This is how he’s found success in his career, having nine submission wins.
As for Al-Selwady, he was knocked out by Loik Radzhabov in the third round. Going into the round, the fight was 19-19 on the scorecards, with Radzhabov having the slight edge in striking and takedowns.
However, this fight was over two years ago. He is a dominant fighter, having finished 10 of his 15 wins. The main question will be how sharp is he after two years off. The main concern for Al-Selwady is how will his chin hold up, having been knocked out in all four of his losses.
Prediction: Shem Rock (-105)
Best Bet: Fight Not to Go the Distance (+105)
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira
Very rarely does a fighter lose on Dana White’s Contender Series and have their next fight be in the UFC. But that is the case for Shanelle Dyer. In all fairness, though she lost by unanimous decision, she showed tremendous resilience, getting knocked down three times, but managing to still land north of 100 significant strikes.
She is a great striker and will work all parts of her opponent’s body. She can finish her opponents, having clinched four knockout wins, including three in the first round.
She starts her UFC career against Ravena Oliveira, who is searching for her first win in the UFC after losing both of her first two fights. After losing by unanimous decision in her debut, she was submitted via rear naked choke by Stephanie Luciano. Despite the two losses in the UFC, she is a solid all-around fighter, having found finishes in all seven of her wins.
Prediction: Shanelle Dyer (-485)
Best Bet: Shanelle Dyer -5.5 (-115)
