Since 2022, the Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball: four straight postseason appearances, 2022 NL pennant winners, and back-to-back NL East division champions. And yet, Philadelphia sports fans remain restless for the third World Series trophy in franchise history. And after heartbreaking moments across the past four postseason runs, especially the throwing error by Orion Kerkering against the Dodgers in the NLDS last year, the feeling is warranted.
The core that they’ve constructed over the past five years or so, while mightily talented, is beginning to age. However, top prospects Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford made the Opening Day roster, while star lefties Jesús Luzardo and Christopher Sánchez both earned lucrative extensions before this season kicks off. With 162 games standing between Philly and another trip to the postseason, here are five bold predictions for this year’s Phillies.
Jesús Luzardo will finish higher in NL Cy Young voting than Christopher Sánchez
Many Philadelphia Phillies fans were distraught with the front office when fan favorite Ranger Suarez left for the Red Sox in free agency. However, the rotation still has two of baseball’s best lefties. Christopher Sánchez had his best year to date, finishing 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts, finishing as the runner-up in NL Cy Young voting. There’s no doubt that he’ll continue to keep his name in the mix for the award for years to come.
However, his excellence overshadowed how good Jesús Luzardo was and will be. Philadelphia sent two prospects to land the lefty from the Miami Marlins. At point blank, if you look at his numbers, you might think Luzardo is a good, but not great arm.
His 3.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, while solid, are deceptive. Across two starts in late May and early June, Luzardo was tagged with 20 earned runs, 21 hits, and 5 walks in 5.2 innings of work. If you remove those outings, his numbers drop to a 3.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. While you can do this with any player that has a bad stretch of games, Luzardo’s situation feels like the extreme.
If you look deeper into the pitches in his arsenal, a small tweak in his first year in Philadelphia helped Luzardo possess one of the most devastating pitches in the game. After throwing a slider as his primary breaking ball, Luzardo began throwing a sweeper. This was his putaway pitch, as hitters hit just .178 against it.
Luzardo’s newest pitch ranked as a top-25 pitch in run value last season, while being tied for the best sweeper in the MLB with Garrett Crochet. His changeup ranked as another plus pitch, providing a +6 run value last year. Outside of that, Luzardo ranked in the upper tier in most advanced stats, with the lone flaw in his game being his ground ball rate being slightly better than average. Having had a year at Citizens Bank Park, a notably hitter-friendly park, he’s had a season to get acclimated to his new home.
The statement of his finishing higher than Sánchez is no slight at Sánchez. Rather, it’s a praising of what he’s capable of on the mound. No matter who finishes higher, if both lefties pitch to what they are capable of, the Phillies will be ecstatic will the result.
Aaron Nola will have a 3-ERA and 190+ strikeouts
On the heels of his worst season at the MLB level, one that was riddled with injuries, many people have sold stock on Aaron Nola. Yet, there’s a weird phenomenon across Nola’s career that is noteworthy. Since 2018, Nola’s ERA line goes:
2018: 2.37
2019: 3.87
2020: 3.28
2021: 4.63
2022: 3.25
2023: 4.46
2024: 3.57
2025: 6.01
Notice anything there? Years that end with an even number seem to be his best years, while the odd years happen to always see him struggle. Across the four even years in this case, Nola’s finished third, seventh, fourth, and 11th in Cy Young voting. While it may be crazy to say that a player’s numbers are solely affected by the final number on the calendar, it’s been the odd trend of Nola’s career.
Usually, when trends and theories are discovered, they are debunked shortly thereafter. But Nola is in desperate need of a bounce back. The once ace is now a middle-of-the-rotation arm, and with the previous prediction, paired with Zach Wheeler returning to the mound following his recovery from injury, and the potential breakout of Andrew Painter, he could be on the edge of the rotation. This isn’t to say Philadelphia will get rid of their former first-round pick, but it is definitely something he needs to stay out of the worst contract in team history conversation.
Nola had two inspired outings with team Italy in the World Baseball Classic and has already been noticed for game two of the team’s opening series with the Texas Rangers. At minimum, when Nola’s on the mound, he’s an innings eater. But Nola has the potential to reinstate that he is a top-of-the-rotation kind of arm.
Brandon Marsh will be demoted or traded
Since coming over at the trade deadline in 2022, Brandon Marsh has been an energetic, fun player that fans have loved, especially when paired with the rest of the “Day Care” (Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott). He had his best offensive season with the Phillies last year and is going to be the Opening Day left fielder this year. And yet, this could be his final year in Philadelphia.
He had his best year versus right-handed pitching, hitting .300, with 35 extra base hits. He is still a detriment against left-handing pitching (.197 average in 2025). His approach has worsened across his time with Philadelphia, dropping about 2% in his walk rate in each full season. He did cut down his strike outs, but he still gets his ticket punched over 25% of the time.
His expected numbers were worse than his actual output. Now, take expected numbers with a grain of salt, as while it could dictate if a player is lucky or unlucky, baseball is all data, and sometimes being lucky is better than being good. But this is a good benchmark for the quality of contact a player puts together. Across Marsh’s career, his expected numbers have always been worse than his actual output on the field.
His expected stats are still good numbers, but his value on the field might be skewed a bit. The Phillies are in win-now mode. While they are going to give Marsh as many at-bats as possible (with a possible lefty/righty platoon with Otto Kemp), if the deadline rolls around and the outfield isn’t producing, Marsh could be the odd man out. The hope is for free agent signing Adolis García to return to a 30-home run, 90-RBI threat and prospect Justin Crawford to continue the tear he was on in AAA in 2025.
If Marsh comes back to earth against righties, he could be the piece that gets moved, as García is under contract for just this season and Crawford is the future of the Phillies’ outfield. Marsh would be under contract for a year-plus and could serve as a supplemental piece to get a deal done for a big-name outfielder.
The Phillies will have three 30+ home run hitters
Across the history of the MLB, there have been only about 75 teams to have three players in a season hit 30 or more home runs. Ironically, the Phillies were the first ever team to achieve this in 1929 (Chuck Klein- 43, Lefty O’Doul- 32, Don Hurst- 31). For Philadelphia, the most recent instance of this was the 2009 Phillies, when Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibañez, and Chase Utley launched 30 or more homers to lead the Phillies to a World Series berth.
As for the current Phillies, this roster has the pop to add their name to the list. The most obvious example of power is Kyle Schwarber, who’s hit 46, 47, 38, and 56 home runs in four years in Philadelphia, leading the National League twice. In the two most recent seasons (2022 and 2024) in which Philly has had two 30+ home run hitters, Schwarber has been a part of both.
Joining Schwarber on the 2024 list was Bryce Harper, who’s hit 30+ in three of his seven years in Philadelphia. Harper has fallen short of this benchmark a couple of times, including by just three last year, in a year that he was dubbed “not elite.” In 2022, he popped 18 in 99 games, after missing two months mid-season recovering from a fractured thumb. He’s seen limited action in Spring Training due to his participation in the World Baseball Classic. While he did struggle, his final at-bat while rocking USA across the chest was a monstrous big fly in the tournament championship, which could get him back on track.
The aforementioned García could have a much-needed bounce-back. He’s hit 30 or more home runs twice in his career, while having 27 in 2022 and 25 in 2024. Across the past two seasons (the two worst full years of García’s career), Globe Life Field was graded as the second least hitter-friendly park in baseball.
Outside of those three, Trea Turner could have his best power-hitting season. He’s hit 25+ home runs twice in his career, including 26 in his first year with the Phillies. Bohm has had just one year in which he’s hit 20 home runs, but given that it’s a contract year, the Phillies third baseman could have an outlier power season.
The Phillies will rank top-five in stolen bases
Last season, the Phillies finished with 124 stolen bases, good for 12th in baseball. The year prior, Philly was tied for fifth with the Guardians, totaling 148 (while also being caught 16 fewer times than Cleveland). The drop off from 2024 to 2025 was for a couple of reasons.
Marsh was less aggressive in 2025, attempting just eight stolen bases (seven successful) compared to going 19/22 in 2024. Johan Rojas was less of an everyday player in 2025, with just 12 last year instead of 25 in the season before. Stott saw a regression from 2024 to 2025, having eight fewer swipes.
The positives for their stolen base case are that Stott still had 24 last year, and totaled 99 in four years in the league. Turner was able to grab 36 bags, the best mark since he led the league in 2018. Though Rojas is serving a suspension for PEDs, he could come back to the big club at some point this year to help the number.
Add the fact that Harper will add about 10, while Schwarber, Kemp, and J.T. Realmuto could sprinkle in a few, and the Phillies are in a good spot. This is without mentioning that García has 25 stolen base upside (2022), though he’s more likely to add 10-15.
And this is without mentioning the Phillies’ new starting centerfield, Justin Crawford. Across his three full seasons in the minors, Crawford has swiped 40 or more bases in each year. If the Phillies have a chance to return to the top tier of base-stealing teams, Crawford has to be one of the guys to shoulder the load.
