One of the more popular debates amongst college football fans is which coaches are facing the most pressure or are on the hot seat for the coming season. Sometimes, fans can be off the mark, but most of the time, we can accurately gauge the feelings within a program. Now that programs are spending tens of millions of dollars on rosters, pressure is mounting on certain coaches. Programs, and more importantly, boosters, are not going to sit idle while millions of dollars are being wasted.
So, which coaches are under the most pressure heading into the 2026 college football season?
Steve Sarkisian, Texas
Sarkisian seems to split the fan consensus on job security. Some believe Sarkisian is completely safe, while others believe he’s walking on thin ice down in Austin. If you ask me, the pressure on Sarkisian stems from one simple fact: the Texas roster is valued at $40+ million heading into 2026.
In 2025, Texas finished the regular season 9-3, falling short of the College Football Playoff despite a top-5 roster. In 2024, Texas had a great season, losing in the semifinal of the College Football Playoff. In 2023, Texas also fell in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Given the talent level and commitment to spending, the Texas program will no longer settle for anything short of championships, and they shouldn’t. Texas will easily double the NIL budget of most of its opponents this season.
In the upcoming 2026 season, Texas will possess the #1 roster in college football, according to most fans, myself included. In addition to returning stars such as Arch Manning, Ryan Wingo, Trevor Goosby, Colin Simmons, and Graceson Littleton, Texas will bring in 8 blue-chip transfers, including the #1 LB, #1 WR, #3 RB, and #4 RB.
If Sarkisian cannot find himself in a national championship game with the richest roster in America, Texas might decide to find someone who can.
Lincoln Riley, USC
Through four seasons at USC, Riley’s record is 35-18. The Trojans are 2-2 in bowl games, have won zero conference championships, and made zero playoff appearances. Even with Caleb Williams totaling 93 total TDs during his two seasons, Riley failed to find any postseason success.
The USC program is giving Riley everything he needs to compete for the College Football Playoff. QB Jayden Maiava is returning. Riley has his 3rd defensive coordinator in four seasons. The schedule contains just 3 or 4 ranked opponents. Not to mention, USC just spent the most money in the 2026 recruiting cycle to land the #1 recruiting class.
Usually, the defining season for a coach is his 4th year at a program. Riley’s 4th year ended with a 9-4 season and another bowl game loss. Will his 5th year be the last straw if the season is a disappointment? Quite possibly. If USC is willing to fund #1 recruiting classes in the modern-day NIL landscape, then the program will require a coach who can win when the talent is there.
Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Truth be told, Dabo has turned out five straight disappointing seasons at Clemson. Is the program focused on addressing underachievement? Maybe not. At some point, though, the program will feel the need to move on. If Dabo leads the Tigers to another .500 regular season, that could be the nail in the coffin.
It’s been 5 full seasons since Clemson’s last College Football Playoff appearance. Over that span, Clemson has seen just 17 players drafted, pending results of the 2026 NFL Draft. Clemson is likely to have 7 players drafted in this coming draft- its highest total since the 2020 NFL Draft. Yet, even with the talent, Dabo led the team to just a 7-6 record. Clemson has ranked inside the top 7 in 247 Sports’ total recruiting talent each of these 5 seasons, but that stat is not backed by draft results. Dabo needs to address this lack of development.
Clemson is currently set to face just two opponents projected in the top 25 rankings. The Tigers will possess 5-star talent at WR, DL, LB, and DB. QB Christopher Vizzina will be in his 4th year with the program. DE Will Heldt returns after a season with 7.5 sacks and 15.5 TFLs. The Tigers are loaded once again. It’s time for Dabo to win games that he should win.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Norvell is by far the most likely name on this list to be fired. The Seminoles have been one of college football’s biggest trainwrecks for the past two seasons. After going 13-1 in 2023, FSU has finished 2-10 and 5-7, despite having a top-20 roster in both years.
Norvell has chosen a clear direction for the FSU program, spending money in the transfer portal and hoping the transfers hit. Even though this strategy has failed in back-to-back seasons, FSU enters 2026 with 13 new projected starters from the transfer portal.
At this point, Norvell is more likely to be fired after 2026 than he is to retain his position. Had his buyout not been so steep, the program likely would’ve fired him this offseason. The FSU administration, boosters, and fans are starving for success. 2026 will likely be FSU’s third straight season with a losing record- a theme that seems too common in Tallahassee nowadays.
