Oneil Cruz has been one of the most polarizing players in Major League Baseball ever since he entered the league in 2021. Cruz hits balls just as hard as Giancarlo Stanton and can probably throw the ball as hard as the Ace of his staff and reigning National League Cy Young Award Winner, Paul Skenes. He may even run 80% as fast as Chandler Simpson. His tools are all there, but he cannot put it all together. The Center fielder converted to the position last season after making way too many errors in the field at shortstop throughout the early part of his career. This has not proven to be a successful move so far, as we saw on Opening Day, when he accounted for two errors in the first inning that made Paul Skenes be chased out of the first inning and the shortest outing of his career. He seems to have mental errors in the field. It is not for a lack of skills, ability, or talent, but he just cannot put it together into one cohesive skillset.
Oneil Cruz is currently batting .328 with a .400 on-base percentage. These are numbers that he has never seen before. It also seems pretty unsustainable because of his near 40% whiff rate (Which ranks in the bottom 3% in the MLB) and over 30% K-Rate. The numbers that he is putting up are unsustainable when it comes to the lack of consistent contact that he has throughout each at-bat. Cruz was a .250 hitter in 2024, and that seems like a realistic number for him to hit due to the amount of hard contact that he makes when he is actually making contact.
Cruz is also a stolen base machine. He led the National League last season with 38 total for the season, and with his inability to get on base last season, those numbers should come up if he hits .250, which is 50 points better than his 2025 campaign. Cruz has the potential to ultimately go 50/50, which has really never been done besides Shohei Ohtani, but it just goes to show you the seemingly unlimited potential that he has.
With Cruz’s uptick in potential on-base skills, and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense seeming to be much better this season. He can also see an uptick in runs scored. He has scored 62 and 72 in the last two years, respectively, which is not very good for a player with his potential, but if Cruz can continue this production this season, he should be nearing 100, which is a mark for very good players. Cruz’s fantasy baseball stock can rise significantly if he can continue an average of early production this season and his previous year’s production.
Cruz’s early-season success can also be attributed to his teammates around him being much more successful than in years past. Ryan O’Hearn, Konnor Griffin, and Brandon Lowe have provided much-needed protection to the young Cruz and the Pirates’ lineup. This has allowed Cruz to thrive and gain some confidence in himself and the lineup.
I am not sure whether or not Oneil Cruz can be even 75% of the player he has been throughout the first 20 games of the season, but he has played great. Odds are for Cruz, this is an early-season hot streak, but Cruz is too talented a player not be able to be a productive major league player. He has played barely above replacement value to this point in his career, and I hope this is the year he can turn the corner and be a 2.5 to 4.0 WAR a year player. With his talent, there is no reason why this is not a tangible possibility. The Pirates fans and players deserve for him to be a productive player as well. Hopefully, some of this production continues, and this ends up being the real Oneil Cruz.
