It’s crazy to think how close we are to watching NFL football on Sundays. It feels like yesterday that we just watched Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks win their second Super Bowl, but as the offseason wraps up, teams will begin training camp as they get ready for this upcoming season in hopes of holding up the Lombardi trophy. With the NFL season upon us, fantasy football managers are also preparing for their season as they look to become champions in their football leagues.
Everyone is looking for the next rookie breakout that could make or break their fantasy teams. Fantasy managers are hoping they draft the next rookie, Saquon Barkley or Justin Jefferson, who will help them win their fantasy leagues. It’s also worth noting that finding the next star rookie is beneficial for keeper leagues.
Most of the time, not every hyped rookie lives up to fantasy expectations, and most of them start to fade out. In fantasy football, a “fade” refers to a player whose draft value outweighs the production they’re expected to provide. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll have poor NFL careers-it simply means their current fantasy price may be too high. Players like Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020), or Sammy Watkins (2014) are fantasy rookie fades that come to mind when discussing the definition of a fantasy rookie fade.
This upcoming season, there are a lot of rookies who have high expectations, but could potentially fade out as the season unfolds. So, it’s important that fantasy managers be cautious when drafting their fantasy lineups this season. With all that being said, here are three rookie fantasy football fades to consider before draft day.
Fantasy Rookie Fades
Jeremiyah Love
The stud running back out of Notre Dame was drafted third overall in this past NFL draft by the Arizona Cardinals. Love is an explosive, do-it-all running back characterized by his elite top-end speed, lateral agility, and three-down versatility. Hopefully, he can be considered as one of the top running backs in the league, but for now, he has the potential to start off as a fantasy rookie to fade.
His ADP is already very expensive, making that the biggest reason, as he’s already being drafted around RB12-RB13, given the expectation that he will produce as an RB1 right away, which is huge expectations for a rookie running back. Love has the talent to become a future RB1; it just might not happen right out of the gate.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has question marks, as they are projected to be one of the worst offenses in the league. When it comes to playing in an ineffective offense, it means fewer red-zone trips, fewer touchdown opportunities, and more negative game scripts, which could make any running back struggle when being put in that situation.
Another concern for Love to fade out is that the Cardinals could operate in a committee. The Cardinals also have James Connor, Tyler Allgeier, and Trey Benson in the running back room, so Love will be fighting for reps on offense to start the season.
Love has a bright future in the league, but it might happen right away. So, fantasy managers should be cautious when it comes to deciding to draft Love. If you’re in keeper leagues, it’s worth the risk if you have the patience.
KC Concepcion
When looking at KC Concepcion as a player, he’s an explosive, highly versatile offensive weapon and return specialist. He can reach top speed almost instantly, allowing offensive coordinators to manufacture touches for him via screens, jet sweeps, and motions. What makes him even more special is that he’s a proven punt returner who can change field position in an instant. So, it’s not so much about the talent with KC; it’s more about the situation that he’s in with Cleveland.
The Browns already have a crowded wide receiver room that includes Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, second-round rookie Denzel Boston, Isaiah Bond, and Harold Fannin Jr at tight end. There will be a lot of mouths to feed, which will make it hard to guarantee KC will command a true WR1 target share right away.
Another concern, of course, and one that has always been an issue in Cleveland, is the quarterback position, as there is uncertainty all over the place. Even though the Browns have Dillion Gabriel and Taylen Green, the QB battle will likely come down to Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. Both Sanders and Watson create uncertainty at the quarterback position: Watson is coming off an injury and off-field issues that have made headlines, while Sanders showed progress in his rookie season but remains a looming question mark as he looks to take the next step in his NFL career.
It’s not so much about the talent; it’s just the situation that makes KC Concepcion a potential fantasy fade. Unless he starts off hot and shows that he can be a WR1, teams should be cautious when it comes to picking KC Concepcion.
Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza had one of the best seasons in college football history as the 2025 Heisman trophy winner led the Oklahoma Sooners to a national championship, earning his way to being selected no.1 overall in this past draft by the Las Vegas Raiders. He’ll be looking to help transform the Raiders organization back into contention as the franchise’s future quarterback, but that might not happen right away.
Kirk Cousins was signed by the Raiders this past offseason so that Mendoza can sit and learn. Multiple reports indicate that the organization is comfortable with Mendoza learning behind a veteran rather than being thrown into the fire. So, the idea of Mendoza making an impact right away from the jump is unlikely. Cousins is an experienced veteran quarterback who can help the Raiders be competitive until Mendoza is ready, but when Mendoza will make his debut is unknown.
If he does start at some point, though some rookie quarterbacks have no problem adjusting to the NFL level from the start, like Jayden Daniels did, it’s likely Mendoza will struggle at first as he takes time adjusting to the NFL level. He’ll need time to adjust to NFL defenses, to make faster decisions, and to learn how to pinpoint more complex coverages. To rely on him being a fantasy starter is risky.
If you’re in a dynasty league, Mendoza is worth the bet, but for redraft, it might not be the best decision.
