Fantasy football drafts aren’t won in the first few rounds—they’re won by finding players who significantly outperform where they’re being drafted. While early-round picks provide the foundation of a roster, the middle and late rounds are where you can uncover the players who turn a good team into a championship contender. Every year, there are players being drafted outside the range of the proven stars who have the opportunity, talent or situation to vastly exceed their ADP. The key is identifying those players before the rest of the league catches on. Here are some of my favorite late-round values who could deliver far more than you’re paying for on draft day.
Kyler Murray (Sleeper ADP 159)
Kyler Murray has the profile of a massive fantasy value at an ADP of 159 because you are essentially paying a late-round price for a quarterback who has already demonstrated top-10 fantasy upside. In his last full season, 2024, Murray threw for 3,851 yards and 21 touchdowns while adding 572 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns on just 78 carries. That rushing production is the key: the 572 yards were seventh-most among NFL quarterbacks that season, and his 7.3 yards per carry was elite. Before injuries derailed him in 2025, Murray had also produced 819 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs in 2020, showing that his legs can create a massive fantasy floor and ceiling. Even his 2025 sample is encouraging from a per-game perspective: in five games, he averaged 192.4 passing yards, 34.6 rushing yards and 1.2 total touchdowns per game.
The bigger argument is opportunity cost: at pick 159, you’re drafting Murray around the point where many leagues are taking bench pieces, yet his 2024 season produced 297.4 fantasy points, 10th among quarterbacks, according to FanDuel’s fantasy data. If he simply returns to anything resembling his 2024 workload, you’re getting a quarterback capable of approaching 4,000 passing yards while adding 500-plus rushing yards, with legitimate double-digit rushing-TD upside in his best-case scenario. That’s the kind of dual-threat profile that can turn a QB drafted in the 150s into a weekly starter and potentially a league-winning value.
Tyler Shough (Sleeper ADP 170)
If Tyler Shough is being drafted around 170 overall in 2026 fantasy drafts, he has the kind of late-round upside that can completely change the way you build your roster. The biggest reason to be interested is the possibility that the Saints take a massive step forward offensively and finish as a top-five offense. Shough showed flashes as a rookie, completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions while adding 186 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but context matters: he made only nine starts and was operating in an offense that wasn’t among the league’s most productive units. If New Orleans takes a significant step forward in 2026, Shough’s fantasy ceiling could be much higher than his current ADP suggests.
A top-five offense would give Shough something every fantasy quarterback needs: volume and touchdown opportunities. If the Saints become one of the league’s most efficient scoring offenses, it’s reasonable to envision Shough approaching 4,000 passing yards with 25-plus passing touchdowns. Add another 150–250 rushing yards and a handful of rushing scores, and suddenly you’re looking at a quarterback who could push toward or beyond 300 fantasy points, depending on league scoring. The important part is that Shough wouldn’t need to become an elite NFL quarterback to make that happen. He simply needs to be the quarterback directing a highly productive offense. His ability to contribute on the ground gives him another path to fantasy points and raises his weekly ceiling.
The Saints also have the pieces to make this scenario interesting. Chris Olave gives Shough a legitimate No. 1 receiver, while New Orleans has continued to build around its young quarterback and add talent to the offense. If Olave stays healthy, the offensive line holds up and the running game creates more manageable situations, Shough could find himself in an offense capable of consistently producing long drives and red-zone opportunities. That’s where the touchdown projection becomes especially important. Shough threw only 10 touchdowns as a rookie, but expecting that number to more than double isn’t unreasonable if he goes from leading a middling offense to leading one of the league’s five most productive units.
Ultimately, the appeal of Shough at 170 isn’t that you’re expecting him to be a star from the moment the season begins. It’s that you’re paying almost nothing for access to a scenario where everything clicks. If the Saints finish in the top five in total offense and scoring, Shough could go from a late-round quarterback most fantasy managers overlook to a legitimate weekly starter. A player drafted around 170 overall doesn’t need to finish as the QB5 to crush his ADP; if he finishes somewhere around QB8–QB12, you’re getting an enormous return on a minimal investment. That’s exactly the type of late-round upside worth chasing in fantasy football: a quarterback whose current price reflects uncertainty, but whose ceiling is based on the possibility of becoming the quarterback of one of the NFL’s best offenses.
Jordan Mason (Sleeper ADP 117)
Jordan Mason is the type of running back who could easily smash an ADP around 117 in 2026 because his current price doesn’t fully account for what happens if his workload increases. Mason is coming off a 2025 season in which he ran for 758 yards and six touchdowns on 159 carries, averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. He also showed that he can handle a larger role when given the opportunity. In the five games Minnesota played without Aaron Jones, Mason averaged 14.8 carries for 75.2 rushing yards per game while scoring four touchdowns, which translates to roughly 1,275 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns over a 17-game pace.
The exciting part for fantasy managers is what happens if Mason moves from being part of a committee into a true lead-back role. He doesn’t need 300 carries to destroy his ADP. Imagine Minnesota gives him around 220 carries, and he maintains something close to his career 5.1 yards-per-carry average. That would put him around 1,120 rushing yards before even accounting for touchdowns or receiving production. If he gets 8–10 rushing touchdowns and contributes another 150–200 yards through the air, you’re suddenly looking at a back who could push toward 200 fantasy points in PPR scoring. That kind of season could easily put him inside the top 15 running backs, making a player drafted around 117 look dramatically undervalued.
There is also reason to believe Mason can be extremely efficient with volume. In 2024, his final season in San Francisco, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 153 attempts, and across his four NFL seasons he has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. His 2025 season in Minnesota was slightly less efficient at 4.8 yards per carry, but he still produced 758 yards despite receiving only 159 rushing attempts. Even more encouraging, he finished the 2025 season with a huge 94-yard performance on just 14 carries against Green Bay, showing that the explosive ability is still there.
So the path to Mason crushing an ADP of 117 is pretty straightforward: more touches, continued efficiency and enough goal-line opportunities to turn those touches into touchdowns. If Minnesota’s offense improves and Mason becomes the primary back rather than splitting work, a projection in the neighborhood of 1,100–1,200 rushing yards, 8–12 touchdowns and 150-plus receiving yards isn’t difficult to envision. At that point, you’re not looking at a player who merely beats his ADP by a few spots; you’re looking at someone who could finish as a top-12 fantasy running back while being drafted outside the top 30 at the position. That’s exactly the type of workload-based upside worth targeting in the middle rounds.
Wan’Dale Robinson (Sleeper ADP 115)
Wan’Dale Robinson is another player who could massively outperform an ADP of 115 in 2026, especially because the market is largely treating him like a midrange WR4 despite the fact that he is coming off a legitimate breakout season. In 2025, Robinson caught 92 passes for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns on 131 targets, finishing 13th among wide receivers in receiving yards and seventh in both targets and receptions. The volume is what makes him particularly interesting at this price. Robinson wasn’t simply making the most of a handful of opportunities; he was one of the most heavily involved receivers in football. He also produced 392 yards after the catch, showing that his high reception total wasn’t entirely dependent on short, low-value completions.
The biggest reason to believe Robinson can crush an ADP of 115 is that his 2025 production could actually be the beginning of his fantasy ceiling rather than the peak of it. He already surpassed 1,000 yards while scoring only four touchdowns, which leaves plenty of room for improvement if his scoring opportunities increase. His 131 targets demonstrate that an offense can funnel significant volume in his direction, and if he maintains anything close to that workload in 2026, he has a strong chance to remain a high-floor PPR receiver. Even something like 100 receptions, 1,100 yards and six touchdowns would put him in the conversation for a top-15 fantasy wide receiver in many scoring formats.
There is also an interesting opportunity for Robinson in Tennessee. After signing with the Titans, he enters a new situation where his role could be even more valuable depending on how the offense is constructed. The Titans don’t need Robinson to suddenly become a 1,400-yard receiver for this pick to pay off. If he becomes a consistent first- or second-read option and continues seeing 8–10 targets per game, the receptions alone can give him a remarkably stable fantasy floor. His 2025 season averaged just over 8.1 targets and 5.8 receptions per game, and a similar workload with a little more touchdown production could push him well beyond his current draft position.
The scenario where Robinson truly destroys ADP 115 is if the Titans offense takes a step forward and he becomes the clear focal point of the passing game. Imagine Robinson receiving 145–150 targets, catching around 105 passes, gaining 1,150–1,250 yards and scoring seven or eight touchdowns. That type of season would give him a legitimate chance to finish as a top-10 to top-15 fantasy receiver, yet you’re currently drafting him around the 10th round. Even if he falls short of that ceiling, his combination of target volume, reception potential and proven ability to produce yards after the catch gives him a realistic path to finishing well ahead of his ADP. At 115, you’re not paying for a breakout—you’re essentially betting that a receiver who just posted 92 catches and 1,014 yards can maintain his role and turn a few more of those opportunities into touchdowns. That is the kind of bet that can make Robinson one of the better mid-round values of the 2026 fantasy season.
Jonah Coleman (Sleeper ADP 168)
Jonah Coleman is one of the more intriguing late-round running back values in 2026 because his current ADP around 168 doesn’t fully reflect his potential path to touches in Denver. He enters a backfield with J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, but neither player is a lock to handle a full workload all season. Dobbins has a lengthy injury history, including an Achilles tear, MCL sprain and Lisfranc injury, while Harvey has yet to prove he can consistently shoulder a true three-down role. That creates an opportunity for Coleman to become much more than a handcuff if the backfield suffers another injury or the Broncos decide they need to spread the workload.
Coleman’s profile makes that possibility especially interesting. At roughly 220 pounds, he has the size to handle early-down and goal-line work, but he also brings legitimate receiving ability. If Dobbins misses significant time and Denver doesn’t want to put 20-plus touches per game on Harvey, Coleman could gradually carve out a meaningful role. Even 10–15 touches per game would give him a chance to make an impact, particularly in an offense capable of creating scoring opportunities. A scenario of 150 carries, 30–40 receptions, around 1,000 total yards and 6–8 touchdowns would put Coleman firmly in the fantasy conversation.
The biggest reason to draft Coleman at his current price is that he doesn’t need everything to go perfectly. Dobbins getting hurt could open the door, Harvey struggling to handle a larger workload could expand it, and Coleman himself has the versatility to take advantage. At an ADP around 168, you’re essentially betting on a player who could have little standalone value early but possesses a realistic path to becoming an RB2 or weekly starter later in the season. That’s exactly the type of contingent upside worth chasing in the late rounds.
Greg Dulcich (Sleeper ADP 247)
Greg Dulcich is one of the easiest late-round tight ends to take a shot on in 2026, especially with an ADP around 247. The price is essentially free, but the opportunity in Miami is legitimate. Dulcich finished 2025 with 26 catches for 335 yards and a touchdown in just 10 games, including a strong finish to the season, and he now enters 2026 as the clear favorite for Miami’s receiving tight end role. The Dolphins lost Darren Waller, and the rest of the tight end room has very little NFL receiving production, leaving Dulcich with a realistic path to becoming an every-down player.
The efficiency is what makes the upside particularly interesting. Among qualifying tight ends last season, Dulcich ranked fifth in targets per route run (24%) and second in yards per route run (2.64). Those numbers suggest that when he was actually on the field, he was creating offense at a high level rather than simply benefiting from volume. He also averaged 7.69 yards after the catch per reception, showing the big-play ability that made him an intriguing prospect coming out of UCLA.
The situation could give him considerably more volume in 2026. Miami’s receiving corps has undergone major changes, and Dulcich has reportedly been one of Malik Willis’ primary targets during offseason work. If that chemistry carries into the regular season, there’s a realistic path to 70–90 targets, with something like 50–60 receptions, 600–700 yards and 4–6 touchdowns. That would put him firmly in the weekly fantasy conversation and potentially make him a top-12 tight end.
At an ADP of 247, that’s exactly the type of upside worth chasing. You don’t need Dulcich to become an elite tight end for the pick to pay off. If he stays healthy and becomes a consistent part of Miami’s passing game, he could go from being one of the final players drafted to a legitimate starting fantasy tight end. The risk is obvious—Dulcich has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career—but at pick 247, you’re getting a player with a realistic path to 100-plus fantasy points and TE1 production without sacrificing much draft capital.
Finding late-round value is all about identifying players whose opportunity is greater than their current draft price suggests. Whether it’s a quarterback stepping into a better offense, a running back waiting for an expanded role, a receiver commanding unexpected volume or a tight end with a path to becoming a team’s primary option, these are the players who can dramatically outperform their ADP. Not every late-round pick will hit, and that’s part of the strategy, but the cost of taking these swings is low while the potential payoff is enormous. If even one or two of these players turn into weekly starters, they can provide the type of surplus value that gives your roster a major advantage over the competition.
