Running back remains one of the most dangerous positions to get wrong in fantasy football. Early-round backs can provide a massive weekly advantage when they hit, but spending significant draft capital on an aging player, an uncertain workload, or production that isn’t sustainable can put your roster behind before the season even starts.
That’s why price matters just as much as talent. Javonte Williams, Bhayshul Tuten, and Jaylen Warren all have paths to workloads and production well beyond where they’re currently being drafted. Christian McCaffrey, Jeremiyah Love, and Travis Etienne Jr. could all have productive seasons, but their current prices require fantasy managers to overlook legitimate concerns. Here are three running backs I’m targeting and three I’m avoiding in 2026.
TARGET: Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys
Javonte Williams was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football last season, finishing as the RB11 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs with 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. His production wasn’t driven entirely by Dallas’ offense either. Williams ranked third among qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt while finishing 16th in explosive run rate, providing some of the best efficiency numbers of his career. During the first eight weeks, Williams averaged 18.5 touches and 90.7 total yards while scoring nine touchdowns, resulting in an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game over that stretch.
His production fell to RB25 from Weeks 9 through 17, but the underlying numbers suggest the decline had more to do with touchdowns than Williams suddenly becoming ineffective. His explosive run rate actually increased from 4.8% to 5.5%, while his missed tackle rate climbed from 11% to 13%. Dallas has also made its intentions clear entering 2026, clearing out most of the competition behind Williams and leaving him positioned for another significant workload in one of the NFL’s better offenses. The Cowboys rewarded him with a three-year extension after last year’s breakout, and he enters the season with the seventh-easiest projected schedule for running backs. At RB17, we’re drafting Williams below a level he already surpassed last season despite very little changing about the role that allowed him to do it.
AVOID: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey proved everyone wrong again last season. After injuries destroyed his 2024 campaign, McCaffrey returned to finish as the RB1 in fantasy points per game while ranking second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. He remained arguably the most valuable receiving back in football, leading the position with a 21.3% target share and 54.4 receiving yards per game. San Francisco also continued feeding him an enormous workload, with McCaffrey piling up more than 400 regular-season touches and roughly 450 across 19 total games. As long as that receiving role remains intact, McCaffrey is capable of finishing as the RB1 again.
The concern is what San Francisco increasingly needs from him to produce at that level. McCaffrey has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer in consecutive seasons and ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt last year. Only 8.7% of his carries gained at least 10 yards, another significant decline from his career norms. Volume has been able to overwhelm those efficiency concerns, but we’re now asking a 30-year-old running back coming off one of the largest workloads in football to do it again. He also faces the 25th-ranked schedule for fantasy running backs. McCaffrey can absolutely make this take look terrible if he stays healthy for 17 games, but that’s the point. At his first-round price, you’re betting on another massive workload from an aging back whose rushing efficiency is already showing signs of decline. That’s more risk than I want with one of my most valuable picks.
TARGET: Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bhayshul Tuten didn’t get enough opportunities to fully break out as a rookie, but nearly everything he did with those opportunities should have fantasy managers interested entering Year 2. Tuten ranked fifth among qualifying running backs in rushing success rate, 11th in missed tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He also scored seven touchdowns on only 93 touches before a finger injury derailed the end of his rookie season. The production wasn’t massive, but the per-touch efficiency backed up the explosive profile that made Tuten such an intriguing prospect coming out of college.
Now the opportunity is finally there. Travis Etienne’s departure leaves behind 296 touches in Jacksonville’s backfield, and Tuten has spent the offseason putting himself in position to absorb a significant portion of them. Chris Rodriguez will remain involved after signing a two-year deal and could be particularly annoying around the goal line, so I’m not projecting Tuten for a traditional bellcow workload. He doesn’t need one. If Tuten earns around 60% of Jacksonville’s backfield opportunities while expanding his receiving role, his efficiency gives him a path to producing like a fantasy RB1. Liam Coen’s offense helped Etienne finish as the RB13 in fantasy points per game last season, and I’m willing to bet that Tuten’s talent can produce similar numbers if he wins the lead role.
AVOID: Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals
There isn’t much to dislike about Jeremiyah Love as a player. Arizona selected him third overall after he spent his final two college seasons ranking inside the top 15 running backs in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and elusive rating. Love is also a legitimate receiving weapon, ranking 17th among FBS running backs in yards per route run last season while commanding a 10.9% target share. With that combination of talent and draft capital, there’s little doubt that Arizona views him as its long-term centerpiece at running back.
My concern is paying a borderline RB1 price for him immediately. Love suffered a high-ankle sprain during the preseason, putting his Week 1 availability and early-season effectiveness in question. James Conner and Trey Benson are no longer immediate threats to his workload because of their own injuries, but Tyler Allgeier remains capable of handling significant work and gives Arizona no reason to rush Love into 20 touches per game. The Cardinals also project to have one of the weaker offenses in football, creating questions about how many scoring opportunities this backfield will generate. Love could eventually take over and become an elite fantasy running back, but fantasy managers don’t get those missed early-season games back. I’m willing to bet on the talent long term; I’m less interested in paying an RB1 price for an injured rookie entering an uncertain offense in Year 1.
TARGET: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren finally received the largest workload of his career last season, and his efficiency barely changed despite the additional volume. Warren set career highs with 211 carries, 958 rushing yards, and eight total touchdowns while finishing as a solid RB2. He ranked sixth among qualifying backs in missed tackle rate, ninth in yards after contact per attempt, and 12th in rushing success rate. Warren remained even better through the air, ranking third in yards per route run and seventh in first downs per route run. After years of being viewed as an efficient complementary option, Warren proved he could handle more than 250 opportunities without sacrificing what made him valuable.
Rico Dowdle’s arrival creates uncertainty, but Warren has spent his entire career sharing touches and still consistently found ways to outperform his price. The more interesting development is Kenneth Gainwell’s departure. Gainwell finished among the league leaders in running back receptions last season, leaving behind receiving opportunities in an area where Warren has consistently excelled. Dowdle should handle enough carries to prevent Warren from becoming a true workhorse, but that isn’t necessary for him to beat his current ADP. Warren already showed us what he can do with a larger role last season, and additional passing-game work could compensate for whatever carries Dowdle takes away. If I’m looking for an RB2 outside the early rounds, I’d rather bet on Warren’s proven efficiency than chase a less established player simply because his projected workload looks cleaner.
AVOID: Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans Saints
Travis Etienne Jr. bounced back in a major way last season, finishing as the RB13 in fantasy points per game while handling 296 touches for Jacksonville. He produced 1,399 total yards and benefited from one of the largest workloads at the position, ranking 11th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, 10th in weighted opportunities, and fifth in red-zone touches. That workload allowed Etienne to remain a strong fantasy option even though his individual rushing efficiency wasn’t particularly impressive.
That’s exactly what concerns me following his move to New Orleans. Etienne ranked just 37th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackle rate, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt last season. Jacksonville gave him enough opportunities for those numbers not to matter, but it’s much harder to confidently project another 296 touches with Alvin Kamara still in New Orleans. Kamara avoided injured reserve after suffering an MCL sprain and remains a threat to handle passing downs once healthy, which could remove some of the most valuable fantasy opportunities from Etienne’s workload. Etienne should still lead this backfield in carries and can absolutely return RB2 value on volume alone. I’m just not willing to pay for last year’s production when the efficiency underneath it was mediocre and his new backfield makes another 300-touch season considerably harder to project.
