To recap week one for the Crimson Tide, ECU traveled to Tuscaloosa and lost to Alabama, 48-10. Sophomore QB Keelon Russell accumulated 342 total yards and 1 touchdown, and Alabama ran for 227 yards and 5 TDs on the day. The Crimson Tide defense held ECU to just 2 rushing yards and even scored a defensive touchdown.
Each week, I’ll be recapping my score prediction for the previous game. Last week, I predicted Alabama 41-6. So close, but I didn’t account for a defensive touchdown.
Now, let’s get to this upcoming SEC matchup between Alabama and Kentucky.
Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, KY
Spread: Alabama (-10)
Over/Under: 49.5
Battle in the Trenches
The first matchup that we’re going to focus on is Kentucky’s OL versus Alabama’s DL. If you know anything about a Will Stein-coached team, it’s that running the ball is going to be the focal point. During Stein’s three seasons with the Oregon Ducks, his offense totaled 437 carries in 2023, 499 carries in 2024, and 551 carries in 2025. He’ll be getting back his starting RT, Malachi Wood, for this game, along with one of his running backs, Jovantae Barnes.
The Wildcats will face an Alabama DL that held ECU to 2 rushing yards on 22 carries. The Crimson Tide’s portal additions (Devan Thompkins, Terrance Green, and Kedrick Bingley-Jones) seem as advertised through one game. The newfound size on the Alabama front will be needed against a Kentucky rushing attack that loves to run the ball inside.
On the flip side, Kentucky’s defensive front left some meat on the bone against FCS Youngstown State. Youngstown converted 8/15 on third down, often by running the ball in short-yardage situations. While Youngstown never hit any explosive runs, they thrived in 2nd/3rd and short. But the Kentucky DL will bring size to this matchup, with multiple 300+ pound linemen and multiple DEs between 260 and 275 pounds. The Kentucky pass rush will need to find itself in this game as well, as none of Kentucky’s starters up front had more than 3.5 sacks in 2025.
Alabama will face a tough task Saturday afternoon, as it will need to replace Michael Carroll at RG, who’s likely out with a concussion. Carroll is the team’s best offensive lineman and a potential All-American. It’s likely that Mal Waldrep, who subbed in at LG in the second half last week, will move to RG, while Will Sanders will remain the starting LG. While most of us expected Alabama’s run scheme to be based on wide zone, it has actually been built around inside zone. It’s an interesting approach given Alabama’s personnel, and they’ll be running straight into a big defensive front on Saturday.
Coordinator Matchup
For those who are unaware, Will Stein is not calling plays for Kentucky. While Stein is heavily involved in offensive installation and planning, Stein has given up play-calling as a head coach. OC Joe Sloan will be calling the plays for the Wildcats in 2026. Sloan will focus on a pro-style system, hence the match with Will Stein. Sloan was the OC for LSU during the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Why does this play a major role in the game on Saturday? Well, Sloan faced off against Alabama DC Kane Wommack in both 2024 and 2025. In 2024, Sloan’s Tigers managed just 13 points. In 2025, the Tigers scored just 9 points. Combined in those two games, LSU averaged just 5.55 yards per pass and 3.3 yards per carry.
This is perhaps a nightmare matchup for Joe Sloan. Most of his offensive personnel isn’t as good as it was with LSU, and Kane Wommack now has perhaps his best defensive personnel since arriving at Alabama.
Kalen DeBoer
A few interesting Kalen DeBoer facts to consider when previewing this game:
. Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 in conference openers, including 2-0 with Alabama
. Kalen DeBoer teams are 33-1 when rushing for 125+ yards
. In his career as a FBS head coach, DeBoer is 4-9 against the spread as a double-digit road favorite
. In that time as a FBS head coach, DeBoer has 6 losses as a double-digit favorite on the road
. In 5 games with Alabama as a double-digit favorite, DeBoer is 1-4 against the spread
Kalen DeBoer is the nation’s best coach against ranked opponents. He’s also among the nation’s elite when coaching as an underdog. However, these are the games where DeBoer must improve.
The conference opener record suggests Alabama will win this game, but the ATS record suggests it could be a much tighter game than Alabama fans would like.
Prediction
Alabama: 34
Kentucky: 13
In 8 quarters of football, Joe Sloan’s offenses have scored 5 field goals and 1 touchdown against Kane Wommack’s defenses. I see no reason to believe that Kentucky plans to break that trend with an offensive outburst. I think Kentucky will be held to a couple of field goals through the first three quarters, then find a way to reach the end zone late in the game.
The Kentucky defense allowed 305 total yards to FCS Youngstown State. I envision a game where Alabama racks up the total yards, with a few on-the-road errors from young players stalling a couple of drives. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keelon Russell’s first turnover in this game.
In the end, I believe the talent gap is too big, and Alabama’s speed will be too much for Kentucky’s heavy defensive personnel. Additionally, Kane Wommack’s resume versus Joe Sloan comes into play again.
