The Bears now sit twelve days into training camp, and there have been loads of storylines, as previously written on what to watch for coming out of Bears training camp. This year has a lot of folks buzzing around the Windy City and across various media outlets. As of now, the Chicago Bears have roughly a 38.5% chance of making the playoffs in the 2025 NFL season, according to betting odds (+160). The Super Bowl odds aren’t as favorable, so we’re not going to put the cart before the horse and even dive in there.
Many talking heads in the media vary drastically on what they think the Bears will do this season. AI models have been all over the board with predictions, but typically land in that sweet spot of 8-9 to 11-6. Everything is contingent on Caleb Williams’ progression and Ben Johnson’s ability to perform as a head coach.
Making the playoffs this year will be no easy feat as the Bears finished in last place in the division, earning a top 10 pick, and yet somehow have the 6th toughest schedule in the entire NFL. Let’s break down some of the must-win games this season.
Winnable & Critical Games
- Week 1 vs The Vikings – This game is against a division rival at home on Monday Night Football to start the year. This matchup will be big as the Vikings have had a top 10 defense in back-to-back years, and they retooled adding Hargrave and Allen on the DLine. Additionally, this will be the first NFL start for delayed rookie J.J. McCarthy so the Bears will have to set the tone early and get after him.
- Week 3 vs The Cowboys – This is a godsend as it is against The Cowboys who are in shambles per usual, with lots of coaching changes and unrest surrounding Micah Parsons. This game is also a home game so getting a win here will be critical since week 2 they will be on the road in Detroit.
- Week 4 vs The Raiders – The Raiders are one of the easier games on the schedule this year. A true trap game on the road but the Bears should be able to come away with a W.
- Week 7 vs The Saints – New Orleans is in an intense rebuild with a first-time head coach and uncertainty surrounding the QB position. This is primed for the Bears to go into NOLA and leave with a W.
- Week 10 vs The Giants – Again this game will feature QB uncertainty and heavy offensive line issues, however tread lightly as Canadian head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best QB coaches in the league.
- Week 12 vs The Steelers – This is very winnable as its at home, and against a Steelers offense that lacks productivity, and an old slower version of Aaron Rodgers.
- Week 15 vs The Browns – It’s the Browns.
Tough Matchups / Bonus wins if the Bears can pull it off
Path to the Playoffs
Truthfully, I can’t find a loss on the schedule… just kidding. Realistically, the Bears do have a path to the playoffs, but they will need at least 10 wins. The NFC is a deep conference this year with the NFC North still tough. The Eagles, Commanders, Rams, and Buccaneers all looking to make the playoffs again.
The easiest way for the Bears to secure a wildcard berth would be to win all 7 must-win games, at least split with the division going 3-3 or better, and steal 1 or 2 wins from the tougher opponents I mentioned earlier. That would give the Bears an 11-6 or 10-7 record and seal them as serious playoff contenders.
Barring any injuries, this is very doable, and I think it is a healthy prediction. I predicted after the schedule release in May that the Bears would go 10-7, and I still feel very good about that. I think the only way this season is considered a failure is going anything less than 8-9, especially with the talent they have on the roster.
