The Buffalo Bills have been dominating teams in the second half as of late. Coming off an impressive 21-point comeback win to keep their division hopes alive, they travel to Cleveland, where rookie QB Shedeur Sanders is coming off his worst game as a pro, throwing for three interceptions. Cleveland is already eliminated from playoff contention with a 3-11 record and is only looking to play spoiler for the Bills’ division hopes.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the league in total yards per game (381.2) and are 4th in points per game (29.4). The Cleveland Browns are 30th in yards per game (264.3). The Browns are also 29th in points per game (16.1)—a massive 117-yard difference and about a 13-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 12th in yards allowed per game (312.6). The Bills rank 16th with 23.1 points allowed per game. Cleveland, on the other hand, is surprisingly 2nd in the league through 15 weeks in yards allowed (279.1), despite their 3-11 record and 19th in points allowed per game (23.9). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 34 more yards than the Browns and allows just about 1 less point per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 330 total yards and about 27 points, while the Browns’ offense should have around 288 yards and about 19 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a fair 8-point advantage and a 42-yard advantage overall, with the Vegas line being -10.5, favoring Buffalo. The Browns are 5-9 covering the spread, while the Bills are 7-7 covering. Betting the Bills at -10.5 seems steep; I’d recommend an adjusted line of -6.5 for those who like playing it safe.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this matchup.
- Josh Allen is playing great football in December, with 7 touchdowns over the past two games and no interceptions. Allen is peaking at the perfect time.
- Â Tyrell Shavers only had 1 target and 1 catch for 16 yards over the past three games, despite playing over 50% of the snaps in those games. Shavers was expected to be a solid, serious threat option, but has only been absent for the past few weeks.
- Harold Fannin has quickly become one of the most promising young TEs in the league. In the last two games, Fannin has 15 receptions for 162 yards and a TD. I expect him to cause problems on short yardage situations.
- Shedeur Sanders had the best game of his short career in week 14, but followed up with a lackluster 3-interception performance last Sunday. Sanders needs to show some flashes over the last 3 games of the season if he hopes to convince the leadership in Cleveland not to draft a QB in April.
Game Predictions
I expect the Bills to win with ease, 31-21. The score likely won’t reflect a dominant game, but I can see the Browns scoring a TD in garbage time. Josh Allen has another clean game and throws no picks. On the other side, Harold Fannin has at least 5 receptions for 50 yards, can easily be 100 yards if we underestimate the Browns like we did the Dolphins in week 10. It’s also worth noting Myles Garrett has 21.5 sacks on the season and needs 1 more to tie with T.J. Watt & Michael Strahan. I think he gets 1 against the Bills and breaks the record next week.
A Look Ahead
The home stretch, if Buffalo doesn’t win the AFC East, these could be the last two games at Highmark Stadium. The Bills host the Philadelphia Eagles in week 17, followed by a divisional matchup, hosting the New York Jets to close out the season in week 18.
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