The Chicago Bears just lost 28-21 to Jordan Love and the vaunted Green Bay Packers defense. While superstar DE Micah Parsons‘ effort isn’t shown on the stat sheet, Caleb Williams and the Bears were made well aware of his presence for all sixty minutes. Despite the game-sealing interception made by Packers CB and special teams ace Keisan Nixon in the game’s final moments, the game was lost over the course of all four quarters.
Some key moments included the Josh Jacobs 21 yard gain after Chicago seemingly had the talented back dead to rights on 3rd and 2 at the Chicago 28 yard line. Several missed tackles led to a Packers score four plays later.
Another moment in the game was Bears DC Dennis Allen‘s questionable decision to rush seemingly everyone on a blitz in the middle of the third quarter, leaving CJ Gardener Johnson one-on-one with Packers WR Christian Watson, who is having a really nice bounce-back season since he returned from his ACL injury against Chicago at the end of last season. Watson won that battle and walked in for a 41-yard score.
Despite these moments, Chicago battled back after a brutal first two quarters and made a game out of it in the second half. Moral victories don’t exist in the National Football League, but the game did demonstrate that Chicago can hang with a Super-Bowl caliber defense and make this historical rivalry enjoyable to watch again.
The NFC North led by the Green Bay Packers has suddenly become a race to the top.
Packers Lead NFC North (For How Long?)
Green Bay leads the division after the 28-21 win over Chicago on Sunday.
This could be short-lived, however, as Green Bay faces a tough test against the Denver Broncos in Denver next Sunday afternoon. Chicago heads back home to face off against DE Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns in a very winnable matchup. When Green Bay travels to Chicago in Week 16, the division lead could be on the line once again.
If the Bears can split the series with the Packers, it would greatly help their chances for a postseason bid. The division isn’t only a two-man race, however.
After all seemed lost in Detroit after a loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving that completed the Packers season sweep, Detroit bounced back with a big win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Their path to the postseason begins with a matchup against Matthew Stafford and the top-seeded Los Angeles Rams.
Detroit Lions (8-5) Playoff Outlook
Remaining Games: LAR, PIT, MIN, CHI
Detroit faces a tough matchup against the Rams who are absolutely rolling aside from a recent loss to a competitive Carolina Panthers team.
Strictly speaking hypothetically, if Detroit falls to the Rams their path is to go 3-0 in their remaining games against Pittsburgh, Minnesota who they lost to in Week 9, and Chicago in Week 18. They would need some help from the Bears in Week 16 to keep their hopes of a division title alive. If Green Bay gets to 11 wins, the ship has sailed for Detroit to win the North.
Don’t count out Detroit too early to make a bid for the postseason.
Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) Playoff Outlook
Remaining Games: DEN, CHI, BAL, MIN
Coming off a close win against Chicago in Lambeau Field, the Packers have seemingly found an offensive identity. The defensive line is stout and can wreck games along with a talented defensive backfield led by linebackers Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper as well as Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams in the secondary.
I do expect Denver to give the Packers trouble at Mile High Stadium. This Denver pass rush led by defensive ends Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen is a legit unit, paired with All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II in the secondary.
The game could go either way, but I give the edge overall defensively to the Broncos and the offense does just enough to win games.
For the sake of the playoff outlook, I see a loss to Denver, a loss to Chicago in the rematch, a win against Baltimore, and a win over Minnesota in Week 18.
This would put Green Bay at 11-5-1 to likely finish first in the NFC North with either Detroit at 11-6 and Chicago at 10-7 to miss the postseason or Chicago in the second slot at 12-5 and Detroit at 10-7 to miss the postseason.
The overarching point is that there could be a team in the NFC North that will miss the playoffs with a record above .500. There is also a path where all three of Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay make the postseason and it looks something like this:
Chicago Bears (9-4) Playoff Outlook
Remaining Games: CLE, GB, SF, DET
The Chicago Bears have posted their best start to a season since 2018 and are currently 2nd in the NFC North.
The Bears did fall to the Green Bay Packers in Week 14, but have a winnable matchup against Cleveland in Week 15. With a win over Cleveland and a Green Bay loss to Denver, Chicago would regain the division lead.
The passing game is a work in progress, but did show signs of growth at Lambeau with several high level throws demonstrated by Caleb Williams and explosive plays came with them.
If the Bears can work out some kinks in the passing game against Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns, I expect Chicago to start faster against Green Bay at home in Week 16 and split the series to improve to 11-4. That might be easier said than done, however, as temperatures are set to hover around 10 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill dipping things down to -10 at Soldier Field.
I’d expect a heavy dose of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. Unfortunately, expect CB Kyler Gordon to miss more time as HC Ben Johnson didn’t seem to optimistic about his return after the slot corner reaggravated his groin in pre-game warmups at Lambeau Field:
Star LB Tremaine Edmunds also has to sit this week and will be eligible to return from short-term IR in Week 16 against Green Bay.
The Bears cannot overlook the Cleveland Browns, as every game is valuable in this divisional race to the postseason. It will also be the last game of the year the Bears are a heavy favorite in, as the current line sits -7.5 with movement likely to come closer to Sunday.
The game against San Francisco is just as paramount, as the 49ers are also fighting for their playoff hopes despite an injury riddled roster much like Chicago’s.
If the Bears can get to 12 wins, their playoff hopes are likely guaranteed. With 11 wins, things get a bit dicey. 10 wins will not get you in.
Final NFC Playoff Outlook Thoughts
Again, there exists a world where all three of Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago can make the playoffs that involves kicking San Francisco out of the playoff picture, ensuring only two NFC West teams make the postseason.
There are also several instances in which an 11 win Detroit, Chicago, or San Francisco team does not make the postseason and they all involve the head to head matchups remaining on their schedule.
Several playoff calculations exist and I encourage you to look at this site to do your own bit of playoff outlook.
