College football is finally back.
After months of projections, roster breakdowns, transfer portal analysis and preseason predictions, Week 0 gives us something we have been waiting for since January: actual football games to bet on and break down.
Using the LFTG Performance Index, matchup data and additional information from Punt & Rally, here is where I landed on every game.
One important note: these are the numbers available during the show. College football lines move quickly, and several already have. Getting the right number matters just as much as getting the right side.
Reed’s Week 0 Picks
NC State at Virginia: NC State +5.5
Pick: NC State +5.5
Straight-Up Prediction: Virginia 28, NC State 26
This is probably the Week 0 game I am most excited to watch, especially with Love For The Game heading to Charlottesville to cover it in person.
Virginia was laying 5.5 points during the show, but neither my model nor the outside numbers justified that large of a gap. The LFTG Performance Index made Virginia closer to a four-point favorite, which immediately created some value on the Wolfpack.
Punt & Rally has since moved even closer to that opinion. It’s current projection makes Virginia roughly a 3.5-point favorite and projects a 29-26 Cavaliers victory with a 62% Virginia win probability.
That is almost exactly the type of game I envision.
The biggest question for NC State is whether C.J. Bailey can overcome some of the turnover around him offensively. Virginia has its own questions surrounding the weapons around Beau Pribula, which is why I would not be shocked if this game starts slowly before both offenses settle in.
Virginia has the home-field advantage and enough defensively for me to give the Cavaliers the outright edge. I simply don’t see enough separation between these teams to confidently expect Virginia to win by a touchdown.
At the time of +5.5, give me the Wolfpack.
North Carolina vs. TCU: Under 47.5
Best Bet: Under 47.5
Secondary Look: First-Half Under 24.5
Straight-Up Pick: TCU
The Ireland game has become one of my favorite situational betting spots, and I am going right back to the under.
North Carolina and TCU were sitting at 47.5 during the show after the total had already been bet down. Even at that reduced number, I still prefer the under.
Part of the handicap is environmental. Overseas games introduce travel, routine changes and potentially difficult weather conditions. The other part is simply how I expect this matchup to unfold.
North Carolina is still trying to establish its offensive identity with Billy Edwards Jr. and Bobby Petrino coming in as Offensive Coordinator, while TCU enters with what I believe is the more trustworthy overall roster and coaching infrastructure. I expect both teams to spend the early portion of the game figuring out what works rather than immediately playing at a track-meet pace.
TCU is also the side I trust more if this turns into an ugly, physical game.
Punt & Rally currently has TCU as roughly an eight-point favorite and projects a 28-20 Horned Frogs victory. Its power ratings have TCU No. 30 nationally compared with North Carolina at No. 78.
My stronger opinion, however, remains the total. I also like the first-half under, and there is potential value in attacking shorter first-quarter or first-half unders if the numbers are available.
TCU wins, but the under is the best bet.
San Jose State at USC: USC Team Total Over 49.5
Best Bet: USC Team Total Over 49.5
Lean: Full-Game Over 60.5
This was arguably my favorite play on the entire Week 0 board during the show.
Rather than laying nearly 40 points with USC, I would rather bet on one simple outcome:
The Trojans score 50.
The LFTG Performance Index actually made USC closer to a 35.5-point favorite compared with the 38.5-point market number during the show. Punt & Rally is similarly hesitant to lay the inflated spread; its current matchup projection makes USC approximately a 32.5-point favorite even with the market approaching 40.
That does not necessarily mean I am betting against USC.
It means I would rather isolate the part of the matchup I trust most.
Lincoln Riley has never been shy about scoring points against overmatched competition. Add Jayden Maiava, an extremely talented receiving corps and a USC program looking to establish itself as a legitimate playoff contender, and there is a clear path to another massive offensive day.
Punt & Rally ranks USC’s offense seventh nationally in its power-rating system while San Jose State’s defense sits near the bottom of the FBS. It also shows a huge overall power-rating gap between USC and the Spartans.
The concern with -38.5 or -39.5 is simple: USC could lead 42-7, pull its starters and allow a meaningless fourth-quarter touchdown.
The team total eliminates some of that concern.
I could see something in the neighborhood of 52-10. If that happens, USC’s team total gets there without needing to sweat whether the Trojans cover nearly six touchdowns.
Jacksonville State at North Dakota State: NDSU -7
Pick: North Dakota State -7
Score Prediction: North Dakota State 27, Jacksonville State 17
Welcome to the FBS, North Dakota State.
There may not be a better environment for a program to make its FBS debut than a packed Fargodome, and I believe the Bison make an immediate statement.
My model was even more bullish than the market during the show, making North Dakota State approximately a nine-point favorite compared with the available -7.
Jacksonville State is not some helpless opponent. The Gamecocks should once again be competitive in Conference USA. But North Dakota State’s identity translates anywhere: physical football, efficiency, line-of-scrimmage play and an environment that gives opponents problems.
Punt & Rally currently agrees almost perfectly with the market, making NDSU a seven-point favorite with approximately a 70% win probability and a projected 22-15 score.
Punt & Rally also has North Dakota State ranked ahead of Jacksonville State in its preseason power ratings, with the Bison at No. 73 and Jacksonville State at No. 87.
The quarterback transition to Nathan Hayes is the biggest unknown for NDSU, but I trust the infrastructure around him.
Seven is an important football number. I like this considerably more at -7 than -7.5.
At the touchdown, I am laying it with the Bison.
Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan: EMU -10
Pick: Eastern Michigan -10
Aggressive Look: EMU alternate spread up to -13.5
This might not be the most glamorous game on the slate, but it is one of my favorite matchup spots.
Sacramento State makes its FBS debut by traveling nearly 2,000 miles to play an established Eastern Michigan program. The Hornets are also entering their first game under head coach Alonzo Carter, while Chris Creighton is entering another season with more than a decade of experience running the Eastern Michigan program.
That difference matters.
So does the quarterback situation. Eastern Michigan has an experienced option in Noah Kim, while Sacramento State is still trying to establish what it looks like at the FBS level.
The LFTG Performance Index lined this game exactly with the market at Eastern Michigan -10 during the show.
Punt & Rally is even more aggressive. Its current projection makes the Eagles approximately a 12.5-point favorite, projects a 30-18 Eastern Michigan victory and gives EMU a 77% win probability.
That supports my interest in alternate spreads.
I am comfortable with the baseline EMU -10, but for anyone looking for a plus-money angle, -11.5, -12.5 and even -13.5 are numbers I would consider.
The travel, experience and coaching advantages all point in the same direction.
New Mexico State at Florida State: Pass the Spread, Look at Ousmane Kromah
Official Side: Pass
Player Prop Look: Ousmane Kromah up to 100+ Rushing Yards
Straight-Up Prediction: Florida State comfortably
Florida State should win this game. The question is whether there is any reason to lay more than 30 points to find out.
For me, there isn’t.
This is the type of enormous spread where almost everything has to go correctly for the favorite. Florida State can dominate the game, win by four touchdowns and still fail to cover.
Punt & Rally illustrates that problem. The market currently has Florida State around -31, but Punt & Rally’s projection is closer to FSU -24, with a projected 39-15 final.
So instead of laying the points, I am more interested in the Florida State backfield.
Ousmane Kromah flashed efficiency as a freshman, rushing for 408 yards on just 72 attempts — 5.7 yards per carry — while also contributing in the passing game.
During the show, his rushing ladders were the angle that caught my attention, particularly 100+ rushing yards at close to +200.
Florida State should have a significant physical advantage up front and should spend much of the second half running the football if this game follows expectations.
I am not interested in forcing a side simply because Florida State is clearly better.
Give me the Kromah rushing market instead.
Hawai’i at Stanford: Over 48.5
Pick: Over 48.5
This is one of the strangest games on the Week 0 board because I can make a reasonable case for either side.
That is exactly why I am staying away from the spread.
Stanford was around a four-point favorite during the show, and the LFTG model was in essentially the same range. Hawai’i, however, has the quarterback I trust more in Micah Alejado, and the Rainbow Warriors already proved last season that they can beat Stanford.
Punt & Rally currently makes Stanford only a two-point favorite and projects a 26-24 Cardinal win — 50 total points.
That is enough for me to attack the total.
Alejado threw for 3,106 yards with 24 touchdowns last season, and even with questions surrounding the Hawai’i receiving corps, I trust him to generate offense.
On the other side, Stanford should be able to establish some physicality on the ground and put Davis Warren in manageable situations.
Neither side is attractive enough for me to bet.
But can both teams reach the mid-20s?
Absolutely.
Give me Over 48.5.
Memphis at UNLV: UNLV -4.5
Pick: UNLV -4.5
Player Prop Look: Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas 80+ Rushing Yards
Save one of the best games for last.
Memphis-UNLV has legitimate implications in the race to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff, and both programs enter the season believing they can win their respective conferences.
The LFTG Performance Index made UNLV around a six-point favorite. Once I could get the Rebels at -4.5, that became my side.
There are quarterback questions on both sides. UNLV could use both Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji, while Memphis enters a new era under Charles Huff. In an early-season matchup with uncertainty at quarterback, I am going to trust the home team, the established offensive system and one of the best running backs in the Group of Six.
That running back is Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas.
Thomas rushed for 1,036 yards and 12 touchdowns last season while averaging an incredible 7.0 yards per carry. He enters 2026 with 2,457 career rushing yards and nine career 100-yard performances.
That makes his rushing ladder another angle I like. During the show, his standard number was around 89.5, but dropping down to 80+ rushing yards provided a price I preferred.
Punt & Rally also likes UNLV. Its current projection makes the Rebels approximately a five-point favorite, gives them a 67% win probability and projects a 32-27 final.
That is almost exactly where I land.
UNLV gets a major early-season victory at Allegiant Stadium and covers anything below five.
Reed’s Week 0 Card
Here is the card I am taking into the opening weekend:
- NC State +5.5 vs. Virginia
- North Carolina-TCU Under 47.5
- North Carolina-TCU First-Half Under
- USC Team Total Over 49.5
- North Dakota State -7 vs. Jacksonville State
- Eastern Michigan -10 vs. Sacramento State
- Ousmane Kromah 100+ rushing yards
- Hawai’i-Stanford Over 48.5
- UNLV -4.5 vs. Memphis
- Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas 80+ rushing yards
If I had to narrow the slate down to my favorite positions, USC’s team total, the TCU-UNC under, North Dakota State -7 and UNLV -4.5 would be near the top.
More than anything, though, Week 0 means the speculation is over.
We finally get to see which preseason evaluations were right, which teams were overrated and which players are ready to become household names.
College football is back. Let’s enjoy it.
