College football strikes again. Georgia avoids an upset by Florida down in Jacksonville. Georgia Tech goes down to unranked NC State despite 511 total yards from QB Haynes King. Texas holds off a late comeback by Vanderbilt, barely dodging an onside kick recovery. Miami suffers its second upset, virtually ending the Hurricanes’ chances of a college football playoff appearance. Oklahoma ends Tennessee’s playoff hopes, while keeping its own alive. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers fall to 3-5, and Hugh Freeze is fired from Auburn. There’s literally no telling what Week 11 will bring.
#20 Iowa vs. #9 Oregon
Location: Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa
Spread: Oregon (-6.5)
Over/Under: 40.5
ML: Oregon (-225), Iowa (+190)
The Key Downs
In one-possession ball games, the outcome is often decided on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the red zone. So, how do these teams stack up against each other in these areas? Let’s examine each team’s offensive and defensive rankings in each category.
Oregon Offense: Iowa Defense:
3rd Down Conversion Rate- #19 3rd Down Conversion Rate- #42
4th Down Conversion Rate- #34 4th Down Conversion Rate- #1
Redzone Scoring Rate- #73 Redzone Scoring Rate- #37
Iowa Offense: Oregon Defense:
3rd Down Conversion Rate- #48 3rd Down Conversion Rate- #11
4th Down Conversion Rate- #34 4th Down Conversion Rate- #119
Redzone Scoring Rate- #16 Redzone Scoring Rate- #134
Iowa enters this game with a statistical advantage in both 4th-down and red-zone situations. All of these scenarios now become even harder for Oregon due to playing on the road. Iowa is 27-7 in home games over the last five seasons, but Oregon is 16-2 in true road games under Dan Lanning.
QB Play
For both Dante Moore and Mark Gronowski, turnovers have been a problem during losses.
In Oregon’s loss to Indiana, Dante Moore threw 2 INTs. In Iowa’s two losses to Indiana and Iowa State, Mark Gronowski has thrown an INT in each game. If Saturday’s game is a one-possession game, we can likely determine the outcome by which QB has more turnovers.
Dante Moore will be making his 14th career start. It will be his 9th start for Oregon. The youngster will be playing in front of 70,000 Hawkeye fans. On the flip side, Mark Gronowski is making his 64th career start. This will be his 9th start for Iowa after making 55 starts for South Dakota State. Gronowski will be facing the most talented defense of his career.
#8 Texas Tech vs. #7 BYU
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX
Spread: Texas Tech (-10.5)
Over/Under: 52.5
ML: Texas Tech (-425), BYU (+320)
BYU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
The honest question going into this game is, “Can BYU’s offense find ways to score in this game consistently?” Given the similarity in strength of schedule metrics, the data suggests that Texas Tech’s defense should outclass BYU’s offense in this matchup.
BYU Offensive Rankings Texas Tech Defensive Rankings
Points Per Game: #36 Points Per Game: #5
Yards Per Game: #42 Yards Per Game: #10
Yards Per Carry: #37 Yards Per Carry: #3
Yards Per Pass: #34 Yards Per Pass: #10
3rd Down Conversion Rate: #75 3rd Down Conversion Rate: #16
Strength of Schedule: 47 Strength of Schedule: 58
So, how can we expect BYU to attack the Texas Tech Defense? Well, it’s gonna have to start with pass protection. Texas Tech’s edge rushing duo of David Bailey and Romello Height has combined for 17.5 sacks. BYU has managed to keep QB Bear Bachmeier off the ground, as he’s only been sacked 9 times. Next, BYU cannot put the ball at risk. Texas Tech averages 2.4 takeaways per game. That ranks #2 in college football. BYU needs to stay within its means.
Finally, BYU will have to challenge Texas Tech on the ground. I know Texas Tech only gives up 2.4 yards per carry, but if you want to hit explosives to get easy yards, you need to bring the safeties down. BYU’s OL averages 6’5.5 and 312 pounds; meanwhile, the Texas Tech front four averages 6’3.25 and 280 pounds.
Playoff Implications
Last year, the Big 12 had only one team in the College Football Playoff. If the committee views the conference in the same way again in 2025, then this game holds the utmost importance. A two-loss non-conference champion will be hard-pressed to reach the playoff.
For Texas Tech, a loss in this game would drop them to 8-2. At that point, only winning the Big 12 Championship puts you in the playoff.
For BYU, winning this game may provide some leniency. If the Cougars reach the Big 12 Championship at 12-0, you should stay in the top-12 with a loss. If you get to the conference championship at 11-1, a loss may knock you out of the top-12.
The college football playoff committee does not view this conference highly. Only one team reached the playoffs last season, and the conference currently has only three ranked teams.
Other Games to Monitor
These two teams currently rank 2nd and 4th in the AAC standings. The winner of the AAC will represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff. Currently, six teams in the AAC have one conference loss. The loser of this game would have two conference losses and likely fall out of contention for the conference championship.
Mississippi State vs. #5 Georgia
The spread on this game is Georgia (-9.5). Georgia QB Gunner Stockton will be starting his third true road game against a defense that has intercepted 11 passes and deflected 34 passes.
Georgia is averaging 31.2 PPG in SEC play, while Mississippi State is averaging 28 PPG in SEC play. The spread suggests a two-possession game, although both teams have played four one-possession games in conference play.
This game would’ve had a featured preview if Missouri starting QB Beau Pribula had not been hurt.
Missouri’s offense averages 238 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Texas A&M ranks #46 in yards per carry allowed. Missouri will need to limit true freshman QB Matt Zollers’ drop-backs against a defense that ranks #3 in sack percentage.
Texas A&M is averaging 36 PPG against SEC opponents and Notre Dame. Missouri’s defense, which ranks inside the top-20 in PPG Allowed, YPG Allowed, YPC Allowed, and YPP Allowed, will need to have a statement game.
These two teams have met 89 times since 1895. The Crimson Tide is favored by 9.5 points, but LSU is a wildcard coming into this game. LSU fired head coach Brian Kelly and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan.
Alabama’s kryptonite this season has been its rushing offense. If the Tide cannot run the ball effectively in this game, it will be forced to throw into a secondary that has recorded 10 interceptions and 35 pass deflections.
LSU’s strength on offense is QB Garrett Nussmeier. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks #17 in yards per pass allowed and #7 in passing yards per game allowed. It could be a long day for LSU if the run game doesn’t work.
