Thursday Night Football gives us an AFC North matchup between two 2-1 teams, but this isn’t necessarily a game where I want to force every fantasy-relevant player into my lineup. Cleveland enters Week 4 averaging only 18.0 points, 178.3 passing yards, and 87.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 24th, 28th, and 29th in those categories. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut either, but the Steelers finally broke out for more than 400 total yards in their 30-27 win over Cincinnati. Cleveland also runs only 55.7 offensive plays per game, 28th in the NFL, while both offenses rank in the bottom four in third-down conversion rate.
That creates a pretty straightforward approach for fantasy. I want the players whose usage can survive a lower-volume game, which puts Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, and Harold Fannin Jr. into my starting lineups. The more questionable pieces of these offenses are considerably harder to trust because we could be dealing with limited possessions and scoring opportunities Thursday night.
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren is easily my favorite fantasy start in this game after finally getting the type of workload we’ve wanted from him. With Rico Dowdle unavailable against Cincinnati, Warren played 56 offensive snaps and accounted for a 91.5% snap share, the second-highest single-game rate by any running back this season. He turned 17 carries into a career-high 127 rushing yards while catching all three of his targets for another 49 yards, giving him 176 scrimmage yards. Warren now leads Pittsburgh with 216 rushing yards on 38 carries, an excellent 5.7 yards per attempt. He’s also fifth in yards per carry after contact among backs with at least 30 carries. The Week 3 breakout wasn’t simply the result of getting more touches; Warren was creating yardage himself.
Cleveland is an excellent matchup for exactly what Warren does well. The Browns are allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game, rank 28th with 3.33 yards after contact allowed per attempt, and have surrendered 13 runs of at least 10 yards, the second-most in football. Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against them, while Warren just demonstrated how dangerous he can be when Pittsburgh’s offensive line gives him room to get started. Cleveland has enough defensive talent that I’m not expecting another 176-yard performance, but Warren doesn’t need one. The receiving role protects his floor, and the Browns’ issues containing explosive rushing plays give him another path toward a ceiling game. He’s a strong RB2 with legitimate RB1 upside Thursday.
DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf’s fantasy production has been frustrating, but this is exactly the type of situation where I want to separate results from opportunity. Metcalf has caught only 11 of 24 targets for 98 yards and one touchdown through three games. That’s an ugly 45.8% catch rate and only 4.1 yards per target, but he’s also running a route on essentially every Pittsburgh passing play and remains the team’s target leader. He played 59 snaps against Cincinnati and finally found the end zone, even though he finished with only three receptions for 31 yards. Pittsburgh has spread the football around enough that five different pass catchers sit between 92 and 114 receiving yards, but Metcalf remains the one receiver whose route participation essentially never comes off the field.
Cleveland’s coverage tendencies give me another reason to stay patient. The Browns are using Cover 1 or Cover 3 on 74.7% of their defensive snaps, creating one of the NFL’s heaviest single-high structures. They’re also allowing 224 passing yards per game and have been targeted deep on 14% of opposing attempts, the highest rate in football. That matters for a receiver whose best fantasy outcomes have historically come from winning vertically and creating explosive plays outside the numbers. Rodgers also attempted 15 passes of at least 10 air yards against Cincinnati, his most in a game with Pittsburgh. Metcalf hasn’t converted his enormous route involvement into the production we expected yet, but the role remains too strong and the matchup too compatible with his skill set for me to bench him. I’m treating him as a WR2 with obvious big-play upside.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. isn’t just a reaction to last week’s two-touchdown performance. He’s becoming increasingly difficult for Cleveland to take off the field. Fannin has caught 14 of 18 targets for 126 yards and two touchdowns through three games, averaging six targets and 42 receiving yards per game. His usage has increased every week: three targets in Week 1, six in Week 2 and nine in Week 3. He turned that latest opportunity into seven receptions for 51 yards and two scores while commanding a 30% target share. Fannin has now caught 12 passes over his past two games and has played approximately 85% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps this season.
The matchup is the counterargument here. Pittsburgh has allowed only 192.7 passing yards per game and just 3.3 receptions per game to tight ends, the third-fewest in football. I’m starting Fannin despite the matchup rather than because of it. Cleveland’s offense has generated only 178.3 passing yards per game, which makes concentrated volume extremely important, and Fannin, Denzel Boston, and KC Concepcion have accounted for 53 of Cleveland’s 82 targets. Fannin is also the one player of that group coming off a game where Cleveland successfully featured him around the end zone. I’m not projecting another two touchdowns, but an 85% snap share and a target count that has risen every week gives Fannin enough floor to overcome a difficult matchup. He’s a TE1 for me Thursday.
Sit ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns
Quinshon Judkins is coming off his best rushing performance of the season, but I’m not convinced that means we should immediately put him back into our lineups. Judkins carried 18 times for 70 yards against Carolina and added two receptions for nine yards, giving him season highs in carries and scrimmage yards. He also handled a season-high 62% of Cleveland’s rushing attempts. The workload is moving in the right direction, but the efficiency remains a major problem. Judkins hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in a game since Week 5 of last season and is averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt across his past 12 games. Cleveland as a team ranks 29th with 87.7 rushing yards per game and has produced one of the league’s worst rushing success rates.
Pittsburgh isn’t the defense I want to use to bet on an efficiency rebound. The Steelers are getting contact behind the line of scrimmage on 52.1% of designed runs, third-best in football, while Cleveland is generating only 0.6 yards before contact per rush, second-worst in the league. Pittsburgh has also allowed a league-low three red-zone possessions and owns the NFL’s fourth-best red-zone defense. That combination attacks both ways Judkins could realistically produce: rushing efficiency and touchdown volume. He still has enough workload to be used as a desperation flex, but I’m not treating 18 carries for 70 yards as evidence that the underlying problems have disappeared.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers finally delivered the fantasy performance managers were waiting for against Cincinnati, completing 19-of-34 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns. The problem is how different that performance looked from everything we had seen previously. Rodgers managed only 408 passing yards and one touchdown across his first two games combined. Through three weeks, he’s sitting at 700 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 66.2 PFF passing grade. He’s also contributed only 17 scramble yards, meaning essentially all of his fantasy ceiling has to come through passing yardage and touchdowns.
There are encouraging signs underneath Week 3. Rodgers attempted 15 passes of at least 10 air yards against Cincinnati and held the football for an average of 3.19 seconds, allowing Pittsburgh to attack farther downfield than it had during the opening two games. But I’m not ready to assume one aggressive passing performance becomes the new baseline, especially if Warren is having success against Cleveland’s vulnerable run defense. Cleveland is allowing 224 passing yards per game, so this isn’t an impossible matchup, but Pittsburgh may not need Rodgers to throw 34 times or chase points. Without rushing production to protect his floor, you’re essentially betting on multiple passing touchdowns. I’d rather stream a quarterback with more ways to score fantasy points.
Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland Browns
Denzel Boston is probably the Cleveland receiver I’d be most willing to start if I absolutely needed one, but I’d still prefer to leave him on the bench Thursday. Boston has nine receptions for 195 yards and two touchdowns through three games, and the underlying playing time is excellent. He owns a 91.1% snap rate for the season and played 62 snaps against Carolina. The concern is that the opportunities haven’t matched the playing time consistently enough. Boston has been targeted on only 17% of his routes, significantly behind Concepcion’s 26% rate, and Week 3 gave us the downside when he caught only two passes for 41 yards.
The broader Cleveland passing environment makes that particularly important. The Browns average only 178.3 passing yards per game, 28th in football, and Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing fewer than 200 yards per game. Boston, Concepcion, and Fannin are all competing for a passing pie that simply isn’t very large. Boston has been the most productive wide receiver of the group because his targets have generated considerably more yardage, but that also means his fantasy value becomes dependent on maintaining efficiency if the target count doesn’t rise. He’s a talented hold with legitimate rest-of-season upside, but against Pittsburgh I’m treating him as a volatile WR3/flex rather than someone I need in my lineup.
KC Concepcion, WR, Cleveland Browns
KC Concepcion presents almost the exact opposite fantasy profile from Boston. The opportunity is already there, but the production hasn’t followed. Concepcion has 20 targets through three games and owns a 24.4% target share, yet he’s turned those opportunities into only 12 receptions for 80 yards without a touchdown. That’s just 4.0 yards per target and 6.7 yards per reception. Week 3 was the clearest example of the problem: Concepcion tied Fannin for the team lead with nine targets and ran a team-high 34 routes, but caught only two passes for nine yards. His route participation has climbed from 65% to 74% to 95%, so this isn’t a playing-time issue whatsoever.
The way Cleveland is using him helps explain why the fantasy results haven’t arrived. Concepcion has run 62% of his routes from the slot and carries an average depth of target of only around five yards. That gives him a path toward eventually becoming a useful PPR option, but it also requires Cleveland to consistently complete passes and sustain drives for him to accumulate fantasy points through volume. That’s difficult to trust from an offense ranked 28th in passing yardage against a Pittsburgh defense allowing just 3.3 third-down conversions per game and possessing the league’s fourth-best red-zone defense. The targets make Concepcion an excellent player to keep rostered. They don’t make him someone I’m starting Thursday until those targets become more productive.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth has actually been reasonably productive through three games, catching 11 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. He’s also reached at least 30 receiving yards in every game, so the sit isn’t based on him disappearing from Pittsburgh’s passing attack. The concern is what is happening around him. Freiermuth caught five passes for 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, four for 32 in Week 2, and then only two for 30 against Cincinnati. Darnell Washington simultaneously ran a route on a season-high 58.3% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks in Week 3 and turned four targets into three receptions for 67 yards. Washington also out-snapped Freiermuth 47-37 in that game.
That makes Freiermuth much more touchdown-dependent than his respectable season totals initially suggest. He’s received 14 targets through three games, but his weekly target total has fallen from five to five to four while Washington’s involvement is increasing. Cleveland does allow 6.3 receptions per game to tight ends, sixth-most in the league, so the positional matchup itself isn’t bad. My issue is deciding which Pittsburgh tight end actually benefits. With Washington taking more routes and Metcalf, Warren, Pittman, and Wilson also involved, I’m not confident Freiermuth gets enough opportunities to capitalize. He’s a viable deeper-league streamer, but I’m sitting him in normal formats.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Michael Pittman Jr. is the easiest Pittsburgh receiver for me to leave out of lineups because we still don’t have enough evidence that he’s established a dependable role in this offense. Pittman has played two games for Pittsburgh after missing Week 2 and has caught five passes for 74 yards. He returned against Cincinnati to play 45 snaps but finished with only two receptions for 16 yards on five targets. Pittsburgh’s offense produced more than 400 yards, and Rodgers threw three touchdowns, yet Pittman still couldn’t turn that environment into a usable fantasy performance.
The target competition makes it difficult to project a sudden breakout. Pittsburgh has five different pass catchers sitting between 92 and 114 receiving yards despite Pittman missing a game, and Roman Wilson, DK Metcalf, Freiermuth, Washington, and Warren are all involved. Metcalf is the only receiver with a 100% route participation rate, leaving everyone behind him competing for a secondary role in an offense that hasn’t consistently supported multiple fantasy receivers. Pittman could absolutely become more important as he settles into Pittsburgh’s offense, but five catches across his first two games isn’t enough for me to put him into a fantasy lineup Thursday.
Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roman Wilson is considerably more interesting after Week 3, but I’m treating the breakout as something to monitor rather than chase. Wilson has 11 receptions for 114 yards and one touchdown through three games. He caught three passes for 60 yards against Cincinnati, including a 38-yard touchdown from Rodgers. That one play accounted for one-third of his entire season receiving yardage, which illustrates both the upside and the problem. Wilson can create a usable fantasy week with an explosive play, but we haven’t seen enough consistent production outside of those moments yet.
The playing time also became more complicated when Pittman returned. Wilson played only 24 snaps against Cincinnati, compared with 59 for Metcalf and 45 for Pittman, and 22 of Wilson’s 24 snaps came in the first half. He continues to earn targets when he’s on the field and has seen at least six targets in every game, which makes him an intriguing stash. But that’s different from trusting him in a starting lineup. Cleveland is allowing the highest deep-target rate in football, so there is certainly a path toward another big play, but betting on a receiver playing fewer than half the offensive snaps to hit a vertical shot is too fragile for me. Wilson belongs on fantasy benches rather than in starting lineups Thursday night.
