Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Wide Receivers to Start
Christian Watson GB
Christian Watson has emerged as Green Bay’s clear WR1 since Week 11 and has taken over the passing game following Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury. During that stretch, he leads the team with an 82.4% route share, a 28.2% target share, 58.3 receiving yards per game, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 36% first-read share. He has also produced 17 targets over his last two matchups with Minnesota and Detroit, including a strong 10-target performance against the Lions that resulted in four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving. Watson has now scored at least 18.3 PPR points in two of his last three games, showcasing the type of ceiling that aligns perfectly with late-season fantasy football needs. Over the past month, the usage, efficiency, and deep involvement all point toward Watson as a strong start in Week 14.
Watson’s matchup this week sets up extremely well, as Chicago has allowed the most receiving yards to outside receivers since Week 9. The Bears have also given up the second-most yards on deep targets to perimeter wide receivers in that same span, which plays directly into Watson’s strengths as a vertical playmaker. Chicago ranks ninth in most fantasy points allowed to receivers, with 14 different wideouts scoring at least 12.2 PPR points against them this season. Watson has historically performed well in this matchup, and the added motivation of facing the team he tore his ACL against may amplify his energy in this spot. With the Bears struggling to contain perimeter playmakers, Watson carries legitimate upside for fantasy football lineups. He should be confidently used as a WR2 across all formats.
Jakobi Meyers JAC
Jakobi Meyers has taken on a larger role in Jacksonville’s passing offense over the past month, highlighted by his strong Week 13 performance, where he posted a 22.2% target share, 90 receiving yards, and 3.10 yards per route. His performance resulted in the WR11 for the week. Since Week 11, Meyers has averaged 68 receiving yards per game and has a 27.8% first-read share. Over that three-game span, he has drawn four red zone targets and has at least 11.4 PPG in every game, which has been a nice bump from his usage on the Raiders. His chemistry with the offense is growing each week, and his overall usage paints him as a steady fantasy football option. With his recent involvement and efficiency, Meyers deserves start consideration in Week 14.
The matchup also works in his favor, as the Colts rank eighth in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Indianapolis has allowed the 15th-most PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, which aligns with where Meyers runs most of his routes. With Parker Washington trending toward missing this game and Sauce Gardner unavailable, Meyers could see a bump in target concentration. The Colts have also allowed 12 receivers to score at least 12.9 PPR points this season, giving him both a floor and a ceiling worth betting on. While Brian Thomas Jr. remains a complementary option, Meyers has been the more consistent performer and the safer fantasy football start. His route efficiency and red zone involvement provide a strong foundation for production in this matchup. Fantasy managers can trust him as a reliable WR2 or WR3 this week.
Adonai Mitchell NYJ
Adonai Mitchell finally delivered the breakout game his underlying usage had been hinting at for several weeks, finishing last week as the WR5 in fantasy football. He posted an impressive 36.4% target share, 102 receiving yards, 2.83 yards per route run, and a 50% first-read share. Mitchell also earned two red zone targets and two deep targets, showing involvement at all levels of the field. Since Week 11, he has operated as the Jets’ clear WR1 with a 28.4% target share, a 61.4% air-yard share, and a 41.8% first-read share. Across that span, he has also seen four red zone targets and seven deep targets, reinforcing his high-value opportunity role. Mitchell now has 25 targets in his three games with the Jets, highlighted by his eight-catch, 102-yard, one-touchdown performance on 12 targets against Atlanta. His efficiency, involvement, and role all point toward sustainable fantasy football value moving forward.
Mitchell draws a favorable matchup in Week 14, as the Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Miami has also surrendered six receivers with at least 11.4 PPR points and five touchdowns over their past four games. With Tyrod Taylor continuing to pepper Mitchell with targets, his volume should once again be strong in a game where New York may need to push the ball. The Dolphins’ aggressive coverage tendencies often lead to downfield opportunities, which plays directly into Mitchell’s high air-yard role. This matchup is also shaping up to be competitive, increasing the likelihood of sustained passing volume. Given his recent rise in usage and the defensive weaknesses he will face, Mitchell is a strong WR3 with upside. He belongs in the start conversation for Week 14.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Deebo Samuel WAS
Deebo Samuel has been productive at times this season, but his overall fantasy football consistency has taken a hit with the return of Terry McLaurin. He posted 11.1 PPR points in Week 13 with five catches for 64 yards on seven targets, but McLaurin overshadowed him with a 14-target, 22.6-point performance. Samuel has now scored 11.1 PPR points or fewer in three straight games alongside McLaurin, making his weekly reliability harder to trust. On the season, Samuel remains the WR15 in fantasy points per game and has accumulated six deep targets and ten red zone targets. In his last two outings, he finished as the WR5 and WR32, showing the volatility that comes with his role. Despite the talent and efficiency, Samuel’s weekly volume remains inconsistent enough to lean toward sit territory.
This matchup presents additional challenges, as Minnesota ranks second in fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. No receiver has scored a touchdown against Minnesota in the past four games, and no receiver has hit double-digit PPR points in the past three weeks. They have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 9, but the overall matchup remains extremely tough. With McLaurin absorbing a large portion of the passing volume, Samuel becomes a risky fantasy football start. His efficiency helps, but the combination of teammate competition and a difficult defense lowers his ceiling and floor. He is best suited as a WR3 in deeper formats this week, making him a sit in most standard leagues.
Brian Thomas Jr JAC
Brian Thomas Jr. is an easy bench this week after another quiet performance that showed no signs of a breakout. Despite returning to a strong 78% route share, he earned just a 3-target day and finished with only 28 yards, his third straight game under 10 fantasy points and part of a larger trend where he’s produced a combined 5-83-0 since returning. He’s clearly playing behind Jakobi Meyers, who has taken over as the preferred secondary option, leaving Thomas as an inconsistent, low-volume WR who hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in any week but one. At some point, a slow stretch becomes a bad season, and Thomas has hit that point.
His matchup only makes things worse. Indianapolis has quietly been one of the toughest defenses against wide receivers since Week 9, allowing the eighth-fewest yards, just one touchdown, and ranking top-10 in nearly every deep-passing metric, including the 13th-lowest deep completion rate and third-fewest deep passing scores. That directly caps Thomas’ only real path to upside, considering he posted a 16.0 aDOT last week and needed a deep heave to pay off. Could he connect on one? Sure. but there’s nothing in his usage, efficiency, or matchup that makes that a bet worth taking. Until he proves he can earn meaningful targets and produce, he belongs on the bench.
DK Metcalf PIT
DK Metcalf has fallen well short of expectations this season, entering Week 14 as the WR32 in fantasy points per game. He still holds an impressive 21% target share, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 26.9% first-read share. Metcalf has nine red zone targets and 13 deep targets on the year, but his recent production has been disappointing. With Aaron Rodgers struggling through injuries, Metcalf has not topped 50 receiving yards since Week 8. Over the last seven games, he has scored single-digit fantasy points in five of them and has only two touchdowns in that span. His deep involvement has dried up, with just one deep target catch and only three end-zone targets during that stretch. With declining usage and efficiency, Metcalf has become a far less reliable fantasy football option.
This week’s matchup against Baltimore is a challenging one despite the Ravens’ reputation for giving up occasional big games. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to outside receivers and the second-fewest PPR points per target. With Metcalf running 84% of his routes from the perimeter, he will be facing the most restrictive area of the Ravens’ defense. Coming off a three-catch, 32-yard outing and with Rodgers continuing to struggle, his ceiling remains limited. Metcalf is best viewed as a low-end WR3, making him a sit in most fantasy football lineups.
