When evaluating the NFL offseason, it’s a widely held belief that the draft and free agency are the most impactful. This is not without merit. A good draft class is the most transformative thing a team can experience. We tend to overreact free agency’s impact on our teams. A “good” free agent is somewhat of a myth. If a player is good, they typically don’t make it to free agency. There are exceptions, of course, like Tyler Linderbaum this offseason, but most free agents don’t return value on their contracts. Where GMs can extract value is in trades.
Take a look at the moves made between March 1st and March 5th, 2025:
- Chicago Bears trade 2026 fourth-rounder to Kansas City Chiefs for guard Joe Thuney
- Chicago Bears trade 2025 Sixth-rounder (202) to Los Angeles Rams for guard Jonah Jackson
- Washington Commanders trade 2025 fifth rounder (147) to San Francisco 49ers for wide receiver Deebo Samuel
These are three seasons’ defining moves. The Bears added two starters to their offensive line, including Thuney, who won the protector of the year award. Thuney and Jackson spearheaded the third-ranked rushing attack, helped revitalize Caleb Williams’ career, and led the Bears to a division title and playoff win. The Chiefs? Had the 21st-ranked offense in terms of points per game and 25th in rushing. This was a season-defining move by each team, made in March.
So far, the Los Angeles Rams made the biggest splash of the offseason, trading away their first rounder (29), fifth rounder (168), sixth rounder (210), and a 2027 third rounder to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for all-pro corner Trent McDuffie. Not to be outdone, the Buffalo Bills have made the most recent splash, trading a second-round pick (60) to the Chicago Bears, in exchange for Wide Reciever DJ Moore and a fifth-round pick (164). We also got a smaller trade to begin the week, with the Houston Texans acquiring running back David Montgomery from the Detroit Lions for guard Juice Scruggs, a fourth-round pick (128), and a 2027 seventh-rounder. Which, if any, of these moves has the potential to alter the league going into 2026? Here’s my breakdown and grades for each trade:
- Chicago Bears acquire: Second-round pick (60)
- Buffalo Bills acquire: Wide Receiver DJ Moore and a fifth-round pick (164)
Buffalo Bills grade: D
Let’s start with the positive of this acquisition: Moore is an upgrade, a good fit, and has experience with head coach Joe Brady. Brady was the offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers in 2020/2021, which coincided with two of Moore’s best seasons as a pro. He averaged over 1100 yards per season in those two years and averaged a career high 18.1 yards per reception in 2020. Moore accomplished this with Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, and Cam Newton at quarterback. Josh Allen will be the best quarterback he’s played with. Moore also adds a serious deep threat element that the Bills are sorely lacking:
A receiving room of Moore, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox is much more solid and well-rounded than without Moore, plus the Bills still have their own first. Another move could be coming.
However, Moore turns 29 on April 14th. He’s owed this contract for the next four seasons:
The Bills also chose to do this:
Moore is a solid player, but he’ll be 29 when the season starts and generated 50 catches for 682 yards last season while playing a team high 86% of snaps. It’s fair to call him inefficient at this point in his career, and he’s trending downward. He certainly isn’t providing your team with surplus value at this stage of his career, and to make matters worse, Buffalo gave up a second-round pick. This is a team with immense cap struggles already, who muddied their future cap sheet and gave up a premium asset to do so. The Bills also have the second-most-expensive receiver room in the league, and it certainly isn’t the second-best.
Chicago Bears grade: A-
This is highway robbery for the Bears. Moore is a depreciating asset, and they turned him into cap relief and a second-rounder. This won’t necessarily hurt the Bears’ wideouts either, as now Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland are poised to take major leaps. The Bears have a major hole at center with Drew Dalman’s retirement, coupled with some holes in the secondary. These gaps can be filled with this pick, or the Bears can swing big:
Getting off of a player who could have been released, in exchange for a top 60 pick, is good business by Ryan Poles.
- Los Angeles Rams acquire corner Trent McDuffie
- Kansas City Chiefs acquire first rounder (29), fifth rounder (168), sixth rounder (210), and a 2027 third rounder
Los Angeles Rams grade: B+
The Rams are consistently aggressive, which you have to admire:
They’ll have a first-round selection this season, courtesy of the Atlanta Falcons, but they clearly have a methodology: first-round picks are perceived to be more valuable than they actually are. Capitalize on this discrepancy and acquire star players. Mcduffie is 25 years old, in the prime of his career. He’s a two-time AP team selection, and he has two rings. He’s performed on the biggest possible stage. He also fills the biggest need the Rams have, which is their secondary. This glaring issue was really showcased in the playoffs, with both the Panthers and Seattle Seahawks dominating them through the air. Mcduffie can help with the Jaxson Smith Njigba’s of the world.
The cost was substantial, though. The Rams gave up a first, third, fifth, and sixth. Four assets. Nothing to scoff at. Given their shorter, more win-now timeline as Matthew Stafford begins to enter his twilight years, this is a hefty price but worth paying.
Kansas City Chiefs grade: B
The Chiefs enter a weird stage of the Patrick Mahomes era. They’re coming off a 6-11 season. Andy Reid is nearing retirement age, and Rashee Rice has enormous off-the-field issues. Even Travis Kelce might not return at all. This team is clearly in a transitional period. Trading McDuffie for additional draft capital is a smart long-term play. It’s ironically similar to how they acquired McDuffie in the first place:
- Kansas City acquires: 2022 first-round pick (part of trade to select CB Trent McDuffie), 2022 second-round pick (part of trade to select WR Skyy Moore), 2022 fourth-round pick (CB Joshua Williams), 2023 fourth-round pick (traded to eventually draft CB Chamarri Conner in Round 4), 2023 sixth-round pick (traded to eventually draft DT Keondre Coburn in Round 6)
- Miami Dolphins acquire: Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill
The blueprint has been established, and it did lead to two Super Bowls the first time. The Chiefs also devalue the corner position, moving on from the likes of L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward in previous offseasons. There is clearly faith in the Chiefs’ building that they can turn pretty much anyone into a solid corner, and for good reason. Still, losing McDuffie is a tough pill to swallow, as evidenced by:
- Detroit Lions acquire guard Juice Scruggs, a fourth-round pick (128), and a 2027 seventh-rounder
- Houston Texans acquire: David Montgomery
Detroit Lions grade: B
Sonic and Knuckles are no more! Running back David Montgomery is a Texan. The disgruntled back got his wish of more opportunities in 2026, and figures to be a starter there. This is a fine move for the Lions. Montgomery’s touches have gone down the last three years, from 219 to 158. He’s turning 29 before the start of the season, and 30 is widely regarded as the age cliff for the position. Jahmyr Gibbs is widely regarded as one of the premier backs in the NFL, so an uptick in touches could be a good thing for the offense. It also won’t be too hard to acquire a power back to help lighten the load. Tyler Allgleier and Rico Dowdle highlight the free agent class, and there’s always the draft. Getting interior offensive line help and two picks for a middling back on the decline is good business by GM Brad Holmes.
Houston Texans grade: C
The Texans get a Nick Chubb replacement, but at a cost. Chubb was average from an efficiency perspective, averaging 4.1 yards per carry over 122 attempts. Montgomery should be able to handle more of a workload next season, but how much more efficient will he be? The Texans’ offensive line was extremely mediocre last season and has been for a while. Trading Scruggs and a mid-round pick, coupled with the Tytus Howard trade earlier this week, spells uncertainty up front. Is Montgomery enough of a difference maker at this point in his career to warrant sacrificing depth and picks for him? I think not. Won’t Montgomery struggle as much as Chubb behind a way worse offensive line as the primary back, as opposed to his role in Detroit? One would assume so.
