Full slate tonight on DK starting with the 7:10PMest games. Let’s get to it!
OAK @ BAL
The weather will be one to watch here. Right now winds are projected to be blowing hard left to right, which has a negative impact on home runs in this ballpark. But if we see these winds shift out, I think we’ll get some decent hitting weather here against a struggling pitcher.
Lopez really struggles against RHBs. This trend has continued from last year. Low K rate at 14.4%, high walk rate at 14.4%, high wOBA at .411, fly ball tendencies and giving up 2.14 HR/9 on the season to righties.
Again, this will really depend on weather for me as we get closer to gametime. On my shortlist if this game ends up in play: Ward, O’Neill, Jackson.
Bradish has been struggling this year but his underlying numbers really don’t look bad. Ground ball tendencies, he just has really fallen off in the strikeout department. I’m unsure how to play this here. Oakland is hitting well, but I wouldn’t know where to start with their lineup. I’m fading both the pitcher and the hitters on this side, but I could see getting to Oakland hitters, especially if we see that wind shift.
LAA @ TOR
I like both these pitchers a lot here. Both have been stellar so far this year. It’ll be tough deciding on which one I roll out. Both have high K potential. Cease will be facing an offense that strikes out more, but better overall imo. Detmers will be facing an offense that doesn’t strike out much, but not as dangerous overall. Your call.
WSH @ MIA
Might have already found my second pitcher here with 2 rookies battling in Miami. Foster has had a solid season with Washington so far. Nothing really jumps off the page negative or positive. He’s fine in this spot.
On the other side, Miami’s #2 prospect is making his major league debut. Snelling is a lefty and has dominated the minors so far. Fast-tracked to the majors, he’s making his first start. He will be in my mix tonight for pitchers.
TB @ BOS
This game is a fade for me. Decent hitting weather in Boston but I don’t really want to pick on either of these pitchers. Neither have huge K potential either, so I wouldn’t use them in lineups.
MIN @ CLE
Not a lot of interest here either. Hitting weather isn’t great. I don’t want to pick on Prielipp yet as his stats have been solid so far.
Messick will be in my pitcher pool.
DET @ KC
2 more pitchers I’m not looking to target hitters against. Bubic will be in the pitcher pool. Very solid overall numbers this year and K numbers are on the rise compared to last season.
SEA @ CWS
Hancock has looked much better this season but is still struggling against lefty power. Love Murakami in this spot and would be open to taking a flyer on Antonacci at the top of the lineup. Montgomery also firmly in play.
Burke has looked great this season and I won’t be using Seattle hitters against him. He has a high K rate against righties but it drops off against lefties. There are too many lefties in this Seattle lineup for me to consider taking him as a pitcher tonight.
NYY @ MIL
I love both these pitchers but it’d be hard to convince me to take anyone against this Yankees lineup with how their offense is currently clicking.
Love Fried in this matchup against a MIL lineup that strikes out at a high rate against lefties.
CHC @ TEX
Unfortunately, another game I’m avoiding altogether. Nothing jumps out to me as completely negative, or completely positive. Hoping we get to some good hitter spots soon…
NYM @ ARI
Mets look great here in this matchup. McLean has continued to pitch lights out this year and Mets bats look to be in a good spot here.
Nelson has really given it up to both sides of the plate here and has given up a ton of fly ball power. This park favors RHBs over LHBs but I’ll have interest in Mets from both sides of the plate.
My favorite Mets play here to lead the stack is unsurprisingly Soto. He’s yet to hit a HR off RHP this year and he’s due. MJ & Alvarez would be my 2 & 3. Take your pick from the rest of this Mets lineup, all stats included below.
ATL @ LAD
Should be a fun playoff preview for us. Atlanta has the pitching edge here with Sale going. I could get after Sale here if you think he’s going to be underowned. He will be in my pitching pool.
On the other side, Sheehan has struggled against LHBs this year. Giving up a .417 wOBA and 3 HR/9 to that side of the plate. These Braves have some lefties that can hit and I wouldn’t be surprised if they go underowned. Braves lefty stack: high risk, high reward in this spot.
Baldwin, Harris, Albies, Olson, in that order for me. The first 3 have low K rates against RHPs and they’ll need that here against Sheehan.
PIT @ SF
Tough ballpark to go after hitters in, but with what has so far been a pretty underwhelming slate for hitters, I could get to Pittsburgh righties here.
Robbie Ray has continued with his struggles against RHBs this year. Extreme fly ball splits to that side of the plate and giving up 2+ HR/9 to RHBs. This is a tough park to hit it out on so I’ll be looking for high wOBA righties from Pittsburgh, not necessarily HR-dependent.
Carmen Mlodzinski has had solid numbers this year and I’ll be in on him. Higher K rates to both sides of the plate, 23.6% to lefties and 39.2% to righties. In this ballpark, I like him.
Recap
Spots I’m attacking on tonight’s slate:
Pitchers: Cease, Detmers, Snelling, Messick, Bubic, Fried, Mlodzinski. Sale if you think he’s underowned.
Stacks and hitters:
- CWS lefties vs Hancock — Murakami, Antonacci, Montgomery.
- Mets stack vs Nelson — Soto leading, then MJ and Alvarez. Take your pick from the rest of the lineup.
- Braves lefty stack vs Sheehan — Baldwin, Harris, Albies, Olson in that order.
- PIT righties as one-offs vs Ray, looking for high wOBA bats.
- Conditional: OAK hitters (Ward, O’Neill, Jackson) if the wind shifts in Baltimore.
Good luck tonight.
