The expiration of the current CBA has hung over the MLB like a black cloud for years. After the previous CBA negotiations in 2022 led to a lockout and pushed the season back by two weeks, many have worried about what this round of negotiations would be like. It has drawn many comparisons to the 1994 labor strike, which led to the cancellation of 948 games and the 1994 World Series. It was not until the federal government got involved that the strike ended.
After months of waiting, we got our first update on the negotiations, and it went exactly the way MLB fans feared. The MLB Owners proposed a hard salary cap, the first time they have since 1994. Under their proposal, there would be a salary floor of $171.2 million and a hard cap of $245.3 million. While everyone expected a salary cap to be proposed, it is the one thing most likely to cause a lockout. With news that MLB is officially implementing a salary cap, a lockout is all but guaranteed. This is the worst-case scenario for baseball.
A Lockout Is The Last Thing the MLB Needs Right Now
For years, the player association has said it will never accept a proposal that includes a salary cap. Regardless of who has been in charge of the MLBPA, the one constant has been zero tolerance towards a salary cap. It is what caused the 1994 strike and made negotiations so tense at the time. It’s also why it took the league more than 30 years to revisit the subject. Given how strongly the MLBPA opposes the salary cap, it’s all but a guarantee that the league is heading for some sort of lockout.
Currently, the MLB is in the best position it has been in years. It has seen a massive jump in popularity over the past five years. Last season, MLB drew 71.4 million, around 100,000 more than in 2024, marking the third straight year of growth. They have also seen a massive increase in interest from young people, something the sports struggled to do years ago. In 2023, the league saw an 11% increase in the number of people aged 18-24 viewing their games. Of all the growth the league has seen, this is the most important.
All of this has propelled baseball to the second most popular sport in the United States. The World Series has outdrew the NBA Finals by a considerable margin over the past couple of seasons. This shows people would rather watch baseball than basketball. All of this has culminated in record revenue for the league. In 2024, they made a record $12.1 billion, breaking the record that was set the year prior. These numbers put to bed the narrative that baseball is dying.
But a lockout would undo all of the great work the MLB has done to grow the game. We saw after the 94 strike, there was a lot less interest in baseball. Fans were not happy that the league stopped playing because they were fighting over money, and stopped watching. Attendances dropped by 20% in 1995, and it took years for the league to recover. It’s all but a guarantee that the same thing will happen in the 2026-27 lock out cancels games. All the new fans will leave, and it will also stop long-time fans from watching as well. It will set the league back years, and this time, they likely won’t be able to recover.
The MLB and MLBPA need to do everything in their power to avoid another strike. They need to put aside their differences and get a deal done that works for both and keeps America’s pastime growing.
