Patrick Mahomes has been known for his gaudy numbers and brilliant playoff performances throughout his career which has propelled him to two MVPs and three Super Bowls before the age of 30. Over the last two seasons, he has experienced a noticeable dip in his production on the field, resulting in two straight disappointing seasons in fantasy football. Now with his stock lower than ever, it begs the question of if he can rebound this season in fantasy football. Let’s break down if Patrick Mahomes will be worth the investment this year.
Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Struggles
Seasonal Averages
2018-2022: 4791 Passing Yards, 38.4 Passing Touchdowns, 9.6 Interceptions, 23.1 PPG
2023-2024: 4055 Passing Yards, 26.5 Passing Touchdowns, 12.5 Interceptions, 17.6 PPG
While the Chiefs have made it to the Super Bowl in both 2023 and 2024, their offense has not been clicking on all cylinders in the last two seasons. Mahomes’ production has taken a massive dip over the last two seasons due to changes in the offensive game plan, a lack of talent at key positions, and Mahomes not playing up this his standard. The notable dip in touchdowns is what has hurt Mahomes value the most with his limited rushing upside. The Chiefs have ranked 19th and 21st in red zone touchdown percentage in the last two seasons hurting those passing touchdown numbers.
As I mentioned above, the Chiefs’ offensive has suffered from a lack of talent at key positions in the last two seasons. In 2023 they suffered from one of the worst wide receiver cores in the league that wound up leading the league in drops that season. This past year, their biggest hole was at left tackle while having multiple key injuries that led to another down season. Patrick Mahomes himself is taking fewer deep shots ultimately leading to more check-downs resulting in fewer chunk plays.
2025 Preseason Quarterback Rankings
As a result of poor production in the last two seasons, Mahomes has slipped down draft boards for the first time in his career. Below is a current outlook of our top twelve quarterbacks for 2025 in fantasy football.
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Allen
- Jayden Daniels
- Jalen Hurts
- Joe Burrow
- Patrick Mahomes
- Baker Mayfield
- Drake Maye
- Bo Nix
- Brock Purdy
- Jared Goff
- Justin Herbert
In Mahomes career, here is where he has ranked in terms of preseason ADP since his first year as a starting quarterback: QB2, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB1, QB1. Mahomes’ ranking of QB6 would be the lowest since his first year as a starter when he was QB16 in drafts ahead of the season. The only player I can see Mahomes overtaking ahead of drafts is Joe Burrow if Tee Higgins is on a different team next season. There is no debate for Mahomes within the top four as all of those players have consistent rushing upside and have been better than him.
Are Better Days Ahead for Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes is still on a historical statistical pace and we can’t rule him out for a bounce-back season in fantasy football even if he has struggled over the last two seasons. Ultimately, the Chiefs’ general manager Brett Veach will find every way he can to address the glaring issues on the Chiefs’ offense. That starts with getting a good left tackle either through the draft or free agency. Two players to watch are Alaric Jackson from the Rams and Cameron Williams from Texas. As far as the receiver problems go, a full season of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice will be fun to watch in Kansas City. I would not be surprised if they add another running back as well.
The potential additions to the offense only generate more excitement for a Patrick Mahomes bounce-back season. He will see a positive regression in passing touchdowns and passing yards next season closer to his career averages if the Chiefs can clean up some of their weaknesses on offense. With Patrick Mahomes’ current ADP at QB6, I believe that is the perfect spot to take a flier on in him drafts in fantasy football. His mid-tier QB1 spot is the perfect spot to be ranked with his upside and accounting for the struggles in the last two seasons. Are you willing to gamble on Mahomes in 2025?