At one point in time, Hunter Greene was seen as the next face of baseball. At just 16 years old, he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated with a story praising his ability as a two-way player. Many comparisons were made to Bryce Harper, who was also on the SI Cover at that age. When the Cincinnati Reds drafted him second overall in 2017, he was looked at as the next ace of their staff. While injuries have slowed down his development, he has shown flashes of being able to take that next step.
But his career just suffered a major setback, as on August 12th he underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2027 season. This is the second time in his career he will undergo this procedure, having had it in 2018 while still in the minors. This is a big blow not just for Greene, but for the Reds as well. But can Greene ever live up to his hype, and how will the Reds replace Greene?
Where do Hunter Greene and the Reds Go From Here?
Coming back from Tommy John surgery is hard enough alone. It is a year-to-year-and-a-half-long recovery where you basically learn how to throw again. But a second surgery is harder to perform and come back from. This is because of the scar tissue and weaker tissue in the area. Only 65% of pitchers who have two surgeries are able to make it back to the majors. Even the ones who make it back are not able to go as deep into games, and see a big jump in the number of batters they walk. There have also been drops in pitcher velocity.
All of this does not bode well for Greene. A big reason why he’s had glimpses of success has been his ability to blow pitches by batters. His four-seamer and sinker sit around 98 mph while his slider and split-finger sit in the high 80s. A drop in that speed can make those pitches much easier to hit. This will hurt his ability to be the ace pitcher we all imagine him being. Sure, he can rebound and be a solid pitcher, but it is unlikely we will ever see him become a superstar.
This injury also makes the Reds’ decisions at the deadline even worse. Many have been critical of the Reds because they are far out of a playoff spot and have six expiring contracts; they should have been sellers. But instead they held back and did basically nothing. With such a weak farm system and an ownership group that has been a huge spender, if they want to compete in 2027, they need guys on the roster to step up. The hope was that Greene could take that next step and live up to expectations. Thus making the roster better.
But now that Greene is out, the hopes of contending in 2027 just decrease dramatically. Sure, they have Chase Burns, who is having a breakout and can easily be the ace of the staff. But outside of him, the rotation has serious question marks. You can not expect to win games in the majors when you have only one starter you can trust. The Reds are very dangerous to be stuck in baseball purgatory with a bad team and farm system. A place that can hold you back for years.
