Every year, you need to mitigate risk with each of your picks in fantasy football, choosing between safer choices or riskier players with higher upside. There are always a few players every year that provide a safe floor and high ceiling, making them a safe pick at their current ADP.
Now, I’m not guaranteeing that these players are immune to injury or freak events. But based on their current situations, usage projections, and history, I don’t see many scenarios where they fail to meet expectations. Let’s get into the list.
Kaleb Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers RB
Kaleb Johnson might just be the safest running back value in fantasy football right now. Coming off a monster college season at Iowa with 1,537 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, he now lands in a Steelers backfield vacated by Najee Harris’ departure. Najee, who finished as an RB2 nearly every year in Pittsburgh, leaves behind 263 touches.
Johnson enters as the presumed early-down back under Arthur Smith, one of the league’s most run-heavy play callers. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell will rotate in passing-down work, but Johnson has a clear shot at 200+ touches with neither of those players exceeding 120 touches in their career. With his 131 elusive grade coming out of college, Johnson brings RB2 security like Najee Harris did, but is currently priced as an RB3 right now. Draft Johnson wherever you can right now!
Second-Year WR Trio: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey
This group of second-year wide receivers is being drafted toward the end of the first or early second round in some leagues, and each brings a combination of volume, opportunity, and WR1 overall potential
- Malik Nabers is the Giants’ entire offense. As a rookie, he set the NFL record for receptions with 109, totaling 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns. His 34.9% target share and elite route participation make him a weekly lock. Regardless of whether it’s Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or Jaxson Dart throwing him the ball, the scheme runs through Nabers.
- Brian Thomas Jr. came alive late in the 2024 season and enters 2025 as Trevor Lawrence’s clear No. 1 target in Liam Coen’s WR-friendly system. With 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, his rapport with Lawrence should continue to build.
- Ladd McConkey quickly became Justin Herbert’s top weapon in LA. He had 1,149 yards on 82 catches and 7 scores, including a monster playoff game. With minimal target competition, he is set up for another high-volume season.
All three receivers offer WR1 ceilings and safe WR2 floors. They are the focal points of their offenses and should be weekly PPR machines.
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills QB
The fantasy QB1 of 2024 and quite possibly the most consistent quarterback asset in fantasy football. Allen finished top two in QB points per game for three straight seasons and consistently combines elite passing numbers with unmatched rushing volume.
He posted 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground last season while throwing for over 4,200 yards. His Expected Points Added (EPX) metrics are among the highest in the NFL. Buffalo’s offense also runs the tush-push at one of the highest rates in the league, giving Allen plenty of red zone value.
Allen can win you weeks on his own, and his rushing floor ensures you never have a bust week. If you want a foundation piece at quarterback, he’s as safe as it gets.
Trey McBride – Arizona Cardinals TE
McBride finished as the TE2 in PPR formats last year, averaging 15.6 points per game. He led all tight ends in targets (147), receptions (111), and air yards (902). He operated with a 6.2 average depth of target, showing he’s not just a safety blanket but also a primary read in many concepts.
With Drew Petzing returning as offensive coordinator and Marvin Harrison Jr. commanding some attention, McBride should still see elite volume. He only scored three touchdowns last year, meaning there’s positive TD regression coming. He’s one of the few tight ends you can confidently draft in the early-to-mid rounds and lock into your lineup every week.
Jakobi Meyers – Las Vegas Raiders WR
Jakobi Meyers continues to be undervalued. He’s coming off a career-best season with 87 catches, 1,027 yards, and four touchdowns. His 24.5% target share and 75.4 receiving yards per game ranked 13th among all WRs. Yet, he’s being drafted right now among WR3s and too late in drafts.
With Geno Smith now at QB and a Raiders offense expected to improve, Meyers is a lock for 85+ catches and 1,000+ yards. He may not be flashy, but he’s incredibly consistent, ascending every year of his career, and faces little competition for targets. You can lock him in as a FLEX with WR2 upside this season.
