The NFL season is finally here, and Week 1 gives us a rematch of Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Seattle dominated that matchup 29-13 seven months ago, but both teams enter Wednesday night with new additions and plenty of expectations for 2026.
I broke down my five favorite picks for the matchup, including the spread and four player props I’m targeting for Seahawks vs. Patriots.
Seahawks ALT -2.5
Seattle -2.5 is my favorite way to play the side because it gets us under the key number of three.
Seattle was the best team in football last season, finishing 14-3 with the NFL’s best scoring differential at +191. More importantly, the Seahawks finished No. 1 in scoring defense at just 17.2 points allowed per game and ranked No. 1 in total defensive efficiency by several major metrics. They allowed just 4.6 yards per play, forced 25 turnovers, and held opponents to 3.7 yards per carry.
We also just saw this matchup seven months ago. Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, sacking Drake Maye six times, intercepting him twice and holding the Patriots scoreless through the first three quarters.
New England has improved its offense, but Seattle brings back most of the core of that championship defense and now gets the rematch at Lumen Field. Meanwhile, the Patriots will be without center Ben Brown, forcing Jared Wilson into the starting lineup against Leonard Williams and one of the best defensive fronts in football.
The market has moved toward New England, which makes the alternate -2.5 especially appealing. Instead of needing Seattle to win by four, we’re simply asking the defending champs to win at home by a field goal.
Pick: Seahawks ALT -2.5
Drake Maye OVER Rushing Yards
This is one of my favorite player props because we’ve already seen Maye’s scrambling ability become more important when he’s forced to deal with pressure.
Maye rushed for 450 yards during the 2025 regular season, averaging 26.5 rushing yards per game. That production jumped considerably during the postseason, when he ran 29 times for 178 yards across four games, an average of 44.5 rushing yards per game.
We also have the exact matchup sample we’re looking for. Seattle sacked Maye six times in Super Bowl LX, and Maye responded by scrambling five times for 37 rushing yards, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.
Now the Patriots have to face that same defensive front without starting center Ben Brown. Jared Wilson is expected to step into the lineup against a Seattle defense that consistently created pressure last season and brings back Leonard Williams and most of the core that just made Maye uncomfortable seven months ago.
That’s the matchup angle I care about. If Seattle forces Maye off his spot again, he has already shown he’s willing and capable of turning those broken passing plays into meaningful rushing production. Combine that with the massive increase in his rushing usage during last year’s postseason, and I’m comfortable going back to the Over.
Pick: Drake Maye OVER rushing yards
DeMario Douglas OVER Receiving Yards
DeMario Douglas is one of my favorite lower receiving lines to attack because he doesn’t need a massive target total to get there.
Douglas caught only 31 passes last season but turned them into 447 yards, averaging 14.4 yards per reception. That’s a massive jump from the 9.4 yards per reception he averaged in 2024. He also produced seven receptions of at least 20 yards and three of 40-plus yards, showing considerably more explosiveness than we had seen from him during his first two seasons.
That matters because we’re dealing with a relatively low receiving-yard line. At his 2025 average, three receptions would produce roughly 43 yards.
The other part I like is that Douglas still has a defined role despite New England adding A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Douglas remains the Patriots’ primary slot receiver, giving him a path to enough opportunities even in a much deeper receiving corps.
I’m not trying to predict where Seattle’s coverage forces the football. This is much simpler than that. We’re betting on a low line, an established slot role and a receiver who became dramatically more explosive last season.
Pick: DeMario Douglas OVER receiving yards
AJ Barner OVER Receiving Yards
AJ Barner quietly became one of the most reliable pieces of Seattle’s passing game last season.
Barner finished 2025 with 52 receptions for 519 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 30.5 receiving yards per game. He caught 76.5% of his targets and averaged exactly 10 yards per reception, while converting 26 of his catches into first downs.
A receiving line in the mid-20s is appealing for a player who averaged more than 30 yards per game, but what really pushes me toward the Over is what Barner did the last time these teams played.
In Super Bowl LX, Barner caught four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown against this exact Patriots defense. It was one of his best performances of the season, and he proved Seattle was willing to feature him in the biggest game of the year.
New England still has an excellent secondary with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, but Barner gives Sam Darnold an established option over the middle of the field behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He is also fully practicing after dealing with an oblique issue, so there currently isn’t a major workload concern entering Week 1.
We already watched Barner double a line in this range against New England seven months ago. I’m going back to it.
Pick: AJ Barner OVER receiving yards
Sam Darnold OVER 0.5 Interceptions
This is my favorite turnover prop, but the argument has much more to do with Darnold than New England’s interception total from last season.
Darnold threw 14 interceptions on 477 attempts in 2025, giving him a 2.9% interception rate. He averaged 0.82 interceptions per game and finished with a 25:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. We’re essentially being asked whether a quarterback who threw an interception almost once per game last season makes one mistake on Wednesday night.
The Patriots also added Kevin Byard to a secondary that already features Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis. Byard gives New England another experienced playmaker on the back end and has built his career around creating turnovers.
Darnold will also be operating Brian Fleury’s offense in a regular-season game for the first time. I’m not expecting him to suddenly become turnover-prone because of a new system, but it adds another variable in Week 1.
The thesis doesn’t need to be more complicated than that. Darnold threw 14 interceptions last season, and now he’s facing an upgraded New England secondary that added one of the more accomplished ball-hawking safeties of the last decade.
We don’t need a bad Darnold game. We need one mistake.
Pick: Sam Darnold OVER 0.5 interceptions
