Super Bowl weekend is finally here, and this matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots sets up as a chess match between elite defenses, disciplined coaching, and quarterbacks under very different pressures. With the smallest Super Bowl total in nearly a decade and several exploitable player props on the board, this game offers value if you’re willing to lean into game script and matchup data.
Below are our favorite Super Bowl bets, broken down pick by pick.
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (+109)
The Seahawks have been the most complete team in football all season, covering the spread in nine of their last ten games. Sam Darnold’s career resurgence has been one of the NFL’s best stories, as he followed up his revival season in Minnesota with another 4,000-yard campaign in his first year in Seattle. He’s playing confident, decisive football, and he’s surrounded by elite talent.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the engine of this offense, leading the league with 1,793 receiving yards while ranking among the NFL’s best route runners. Even if New England prioritizes stopping him, Smith-Njigba has proven he can win through coverage, finishing top-10 in contested catch rate.
What truly separates Seattle, though, is balance. They boast the No. 2 scoring offense (29.2 PPG) and the No. 1 scoring defense (17.1 PPG). Their defense generates pressure without blitzing, ranking fourth in QB pressure rate while sitting just 22nd in blitz frequency. That’s a nightmare setup for a Patriots offensive line that has struggled all season.
Drake Maye has already been forced into scrambling more than almost any quarterback in the league, and against Seattle’s pass rush, that trend should continue. While New England’s defense is elite in its own right, Seattle has consistently proven they can win against top-tier units. This feels like the Seahawks’ moment, and Darnold finishes the story.
Under 47.5 Total Points (-146)
This is the lowest Super Bowl total since Super Bowl 50, and it’s fully justified. The Patriots are averaging just 18.0 points per game this postseason, the fewest by any Super Bowl team after three playoff wins. Meanwhile, Seattle owns the best scoring defense in football.
On the flip side, New England’s defense has been historically dominant in the playoffs, allowing just 8.7 points per game, a mark we haven’t seen since the 2000 Ravens. Both teams rank inside the top five in run rate, meaning clock-draining drives and limited possessions.
Explosive plays should be hard to come by. Seattle’s defense thrives against weak offensive lines, and Mike Vrabel’s defensive game plans are built to remove an opponent’s top weapon. With both teams leaning on the run and defense dictating pace, this game has a very real path to finishing in the low 40s or even lower.
Kayshon Boutte Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Boutte’s role has steadily diminished as the season has gone on. He’s played 62% of snaps or fewer in four of his last five games and is averaging fewer than four targets per game over his last ten.
Over that stretch, he’s produced just 27.4 air yards per game and 6.8 yards after the catch, and he’s surpassed this line in only 47% of games this season. He’s cleared 31 yards in just four of his last ten contests.
Seattle has done an excellent job limiting secondary receivers, and similar wideouts have consistently gone under this number against them. If Boutte doesn’t hit on a big play early, there’s a real chance he disappears entirely from the stat sheet.
Rashid Shaheed 15+ Receiving Yards (-180)
This one is simple: we’re betting on one splash play.
Seattle ranks first in EPA allowed per dropback on deep throws. Exactly the area where Rashid Shaheed operates. But Sam Darnold ranks second in catchable passes on throws of 20+ yards, and we’ve already seen this connection cash recently with a 51-yard reception.
While Shaheed has slumped over the last five weeks, with four games below 10 yards in his last five, the team has heavily relied on Kenneth Walker and the ground game. Expect the passing game of the Seahawks to be the story of Sunday’s game.
Kenneth Walker III Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Walker’s ceiling games tend to come against weaker run defenses, and New England is anything but that. The Patriots ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed during the regular season and have been even better in the playoffs, holding running backs to just 38.7 yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry.
Walker has struggled against top-10 run defenses all season, failing to reach 70 yards in five of seven such matchups. Even with volume, efficiency should be hard to come by against a Patriots front that’s dominated the trenches throughout the postseason.
AJ Barner 3+ Receptions (-166)
When the lights are brightest, quarterbacks lean on trusted targets, especially near the goal line. AJ Barner has quietly become one of Sam Darnold’s most reliable options, ranking sixth among tight ends in red-zone targets and second on the team overall.
New England sits middle of the pack against tight ends, and if they commit resources to stopping the run or rolling coverage toward Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Barner should find favorable matchups underneath. He’s recorded three or more catches in over half of his games and has cleared 25 yards in nearly two-thirds of his starts.
Hunter Henry 4+ Receptions (-126)
Seattle’s defense is elite overall, but tight ends have been a consistent weakness. They allowed the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most yards to the position during the regular season, and that trend has continued into the playoffs.
With Seattle likely shadowing Stefon Diggs, Drake Maye should lean heavily on Henry in short and intermediate areas. Henry owns one of the best receiving grades against zone coverage and has surpassed this catch total frequently when New England needs a reliable chain-mover.
Combined Parlay Odds: +5500
All seven picks combined come in at +5500 odds, offering massive upside for a game script built around defense, tight ends, and controlled offensive execution. Here is to a gritty, low-scoring Super Bowl to close the season.
