On Saturday, the No. 23 Tennessee Volunteers (7–3) head into the Swamp to take on the Florida Gators (3–7), hoping to finally snap their 22-year losing streak in Gainesville.
It has been an uphill battle for the Volunteers to win on the road against the Gators. Since 1971, they have only won three games in the Swamp (1971, 2001, 2003). To put this into perspective, the Vols have only won three road games against Florida in the past 52 years.
If the Vols don’t win on Saturday, they’ll have to wait until 2029 to have another opportunity at defeating the Gators on the road. So that means if you were born in 1999, you might have to wait until you are 30 years old to watch Tennessee secure a victory in Gainesville. That is, if they don’t get the job done on Saturday.
So, long story short, this is a must-win game for the Volunteers.
How Tennessee Matches Up
Tennessee has one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 43.4 points per game, ranking No. 2 in the FBS. They are led by their star quarterback, Joey Aguilar, who is No. 7 in the nation in passing yards, throwing for 2,941 yards, including 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Although Aguilar has been spectacular for most of the year, since November, he has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. During the month, he has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions for a total of 597 yards.
The Volunteers also have an elite trio of wide receivers: Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley, and Mike Matthews. Each of these receivers ranks in the top 11 of the SEC in terms of receiving yards. Brazzell not only leads the SEC with 873 receiving yards, but he is also tied for 10th in the country in receiving touchdowns with eight scores.
Although Tennessee showcases an elite offensive unit, its defense has been lackluster at best. Currently, the Vols give up an average of 390.3 yards per game, ranking them No. 86 in the FBS. Their defense has been a liability against the run and the pass; however, there are two defensive categories in which the Vols have fared well. Tennessee’s defense has scored six touchdowns this season, which is the second-best total among college football programs. In addition, they have forced 33 sacks this year, averaging 3.3 per game, ranking them No. 4 in the nation.
Overview
Although Florida has struggled to win on the road, it has lost only one game at home, to South Florida in its second game of the season. Additionally, it lost to Ole Miss by only 10 points last week and to Georgia by only four points a few weeks before. Both of those schools are in the top six in the current College Football Playoff poll. So, the Gators shouldn’t be overlooked solely due to their record.
Luckily for the Vols, Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns this season. He currently has 1,980 passing yards for 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Considering that Tennessee ranks No. 2 in defensive touchdowns, maybe it can score off some interceptions on Saturday.
However, the Volunteers will have to keep an eye on Florida running back Jadan Baugh, who is fifth in the SEC in rushing yards with 808 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. If Tennessee can effectively stop the run and capitalize on turnovers, then it should have an excellent chance at winning on Saturday, but winning in the Swamp is easier said than done. Although the Gators have only won three games this year, they still sold out their tickets for this game. So, Florida’s crowd will play a factor in this game.
On paper, Tennessee should win this game by multiple scores, but things rarely go right when the Vols travel to Gainesville. Considering the Gators are not going to a bowl game and have nothing to lose, a shocking upset could be brewing on Saturday. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Tennessee a 65% chance of beating Florida; however, most Vols fans know how dangerous the Gators can be, even if their record does not seem imposing.
Final Prediction: Florida 34, Tennessee 31
