The NFL wastes no time delivering must-watch primetime football in Week 1. On Thursday night, we get an NFC East clash as the Cowboys travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles, a rivalry game loaded with fantasy implications on both sides. Then on Friday, Justin Herbert and the Chargers square off with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. With star power everywhere, fantasy managers will need to make some tough calls on who to trust in their lineups. Here’s my start/sit breakdown for both matchups to help you set the tone early for Week 1.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Jalen Hurts QB (PHI)
- Saquon Barkley RB (PHI)
- AJ Brown WR (PHI)
- Ceedee Lamb WR (DAL)
- Patrick Mahomes QB (KC)
- Ladd McConkey WR (LAC)
Strong Starts
DeVonta Smith WR (PHI)
Smith continues to be one of the most underrated fantasy assets, finishing inside the top 20 WRs in fantasy points per game each of the last three years. This matchup sets up nicely against Dallas’ new-look defense under Matt Eberflus, who leans heavily on single-high coverages. Against single-high last season, Smith excelled, commanding over 30% of first-read targets. Dallas also allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter receivers. Smith is a good start on opening night against a weaker Cowboys defense.
Dallas Goedert TE (PHI)
Goedert has been steady when on the field, but battled injuries last season, leading to a down year. When on the field last year, he averaged 11.8 PPG, which put him right at TE8 in PPG, which is impressive. Week 1 sets up nicely against Dallas’ defense under Matt Eberflus, who deploys single-high coverages at a high rate. Goedert thrived against that look last season with a 28% target per route run. With the Cowboys also ranking bottom 10 in yards per reception and touchdowns allowed to tight ends, Goedert has strong TE1 appeal in the opener.
Justin Herbert QB (LAC)
While the Chiefs’ defense was dominant against running backs in fantasy last year, they were in the middle of the pack against quarterbacks. Justin Herbert had a tale of two halves last year, ranking 27th in PPG through 6 weeks before jumping to QB11 the rest of the season in PPG. Herbert’s weapons heading into the season saw a solid boost, and while this team primarily focuses on running the ball, they will need to throw the ball late to beat the Chiefs. I believe the volume will be good enough this week for Herbert to cash in on a QB1 performance to start the season.
Xavier Worthy WR (KC)
With Rashee Rice suspended, Worthy steps into an immediate high-volume role in Kansas City’s passing attack. Worthy broke out towards the end of last season with three performances over 19.6 PPR points over the last three weeks of his 2024 season. Worthy’s matchup isn’t ideal against a Chargers defense that plays a high rate of two-high coverages and limited production to perimeter receivers last year. Still, his red-zone usage and designed targets in this offense make him a viable start. Even if efficiency isn’t there, volume should keep him in the WR2 range this week.
Travis Kelce TE (KC)
Kelce may no longer be the league-winning cheat code he once was, but he’s still a must-start TE. Even at age 35 and despite a career-low yardage output last year, he finished TE6 in points per game and led all TEs in red-zone targets. His Week 1 matchup is tough; the Chargers allowed only 7.6 half-PPG to the position last season. That said, his target share in Andy Reid’s offense makes him nearly impossible to bench, while Kelce himself has dominated the Chargers over the course of his career.
Isiah Pacheco RB (KC)
Pacheco enters Week 1 healthy, which is the biggest factor after an injury-plagued 2024 season. When at full strength in 2023, he ranked top 20 in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. His role may be slightly diluted with Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith in the mix, but he should still lead the Chiefs’ backfield in touches. The Chargers’ run defense struggled towards the end of last year, allowing one of the league’s highest explosive run rates and 11th in yards allowed over the final 8 weeks of the season. If the game script favors Kansas City, Pacheco is in line for a strong outing.
Players to Sit
Javonte Williams RB (DAL)
Williams’ role is murky entering Week 1 after not logging a single preseason snap. While he’s expected to open as the Cowboys’ lead back, we don’t know how long or how big a workload he can handle after his struggles with production and injuries over the last few seasons. The Eagles have one of the better run defenses in the NFL going into the season, and it is tough to gamble on Williams in week 1.
Najee Harris RB (LAC)
Harris is suiting up in Week 1, but his role is uncertain, with him having limited work over the last two months and Omarion Hampton’s role within the offense. This is not the spot to gamble, as Kansas City’s defense was one of the best in the NFL last season against the run. Without clarity on his workload, Harris is a sit candidate against a tough matchup.
Marquise Brown WR (KC)
Brown looks likely to play despite battling an ankle injury, but his fantasy outlook is bleak. Limited to just two regular-season games in 2024, he showed diminished explosiveness and struggled badly in the postseason with poor efficiency metrics across the board. Even if he sees routes in Week 1, his health and role remain question marks. He’s best left on the bench until we see proof that his role within the Chiefs offense can make him a consistent player over the course of the season.
Quentin Johnston WR (LAC)
Johnston is buried behind Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey in the pecking order, with Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith also pushing for snaps. His volatility makes him an unreliable flex play, especially against a Kansas City secondary that had a lot of success against perimeter receivers last season. While he flashed in a late-season matchup vs. the Chiefs last year, his path to consistent targets in 2025 is unclear. Until his role stabilizes, he’s a sit.
On the Fence
George Pickens WR (DAL)
Pickens is set up for a breakout season with Dak Prescott, but Week 1 is a tricky draw. The Eagles smothered perimeter wideouts last year, and Pickens struggled against two-high looks, which Philly deploys at one of the league’s highest rates. While his season-long outlook is exciting, expectations should be tempered this week. He’s a risky opening day play with his matchups on the outside.
Omarion Hampton RB (LAC)
The rookie should see the bulk of early-down work for the Chargers, but it comes in a brutal opening matchup. Kansas City was one of the best run defenses last year, particularly at limiting yards after contact. The Chiefs’ defense also finished inside the top three last season in points allowed to the RB position. Hampton’s workload gives him a safe floor, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a breakout performance in Week 1 against a tough opening matchup.
Jake Ferguson TE (DAL)
Ferguson was a steady producer with Dak Prescott early last year, ranking TE12 before Prescott’s injury with a 19.8% target share. He gets his QB back, but Philly’s defense was one of the best at limiting tight ends, allowing the lowest yards per reception to the position in 2024. Ferguson is a solid sleeper at the TE position in 2025, but a tough opening matchup makes him a risky play. Best-case scenario, the volume in the passing game prevents him from being a dud this week.
Keenan Allen WR (LAC)
Allen is back with the Chargers, and while Chicago’s QB struggles tanked last season’s efficiency, he still commanded volume at a top-25 rate. His return to the slot role is key, as Kansas City was destroyed by slot receivers in 2024, as they allowed the 11th most points to the position last season. Allen’s separation numbers decreased last season, but he should be a steady flex play depending on the matchup. This week, I am a bit hesitant with him only being in camp for a few weeks despite the solid matchup.
Dak Prescott QB (DAL)
Prescott is coming off a down 2024 season and is returning from injury, but looks poised for a bounce-back season with a healthier roster and George Pickens added to the mix. Philly was one of the league’s best pass defenses last year, but their lack of pass rush could leave Prescott with clean pockets. The volume for Prescott will be there, with a lack of a running game and weak defense this week. Will the volume be enough to start him against a tough Eagles defense? I am not sure if I am buying into that in week 1.
