Thanksgiving football is back with a three-game NFL triple-header — Packers at Lions, Chiefs at Cowboys, and Bengals at Ravens — so fantasy managers need to be ready for a busy holiday slate. Below, I’ll explain who you can trust in your lineups, who should stay on the bench, and which players fall into that tricky gray area for Thursday night.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Patrick Mahomes QB (KC)
- Lamar Jackson QB (BAL)
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB (DET)
- Derrick Henry RB (BAL)
- Javonte Williams RB (DAL)
- Josh Jacobs RB (GB)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR (DET)
- Rashee Rice WR (KC)
- Ja’Marr Chase WR (CIN)
- George Pickens WR (DAL)
- CeeDee Lamb WR (DAL)
- Travis Kelce TE (KC)
Quarterbacks to Start
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Dak Prescott enters Week 13 as a clear start in fantasy football thanks to his elite production and consistency over the past several weeks. He is coming off a 354-yard, three-touchdown performance against Philadelphia, where he led Dallas back from a 21-0 deficit and once again demonstrated top-tier efficiency. With seven total touchdowns over his last two games and ranking as the QB5 on the season, Prescott remains one of the safest and highest-upside quarterbacks available. He also ranks third among quarterbacks in passing yards this year, while also ranking top 5 in passing attempts. The volume paired with the weapons at his disposal has resulted in a strong 2025 season.
This week’s matchup against Kansas City is far more favorable than it appears, as the Chiefs have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate, while also having the 11th-lowest pressure rate since Week 7. Dallas should be forced to remain aggressive in what projects to be a competitive, high-scoring game. Given his combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup stability, he should be confidently started in all formats.
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Joe Burrow returns in Week 13 and immediately steps into start consideration for fantasy football despite the long layoff. While rust is possible after missing time with a significant turf toe injury, Burrow himself made it clear he will not sit if healthy, and Cincinnati is treating this matchup as a must-win scenario. Baltimore’s defense looks intimidating on paper, but context is essential: since Week 8, the Ravens have largely faced subpar quarterbacks and benefited from game script advantages. They have allowed the sixth-most passing yards over that span, and injuries in the secondary could create additional openings. Burrow shredded this defense last season with 820 yards and nine touchdowns across two meetings, demonstrating a ceiling few quarterbacks can match.
Even in his lone full game earlier this season, Burrow showed functional accuracy despite an anemic offensive output, and Cincinnati’s system historically improves each week as he settles in. If this game plays out as expected, the Bengals will need Burrow to throw aggressively to keep pace, which supports both volume and fantasy scoring opportunity. Tee Higgins’ absence removes a high-end weapon, but Burrow has repeatedly elevated receivers in his career. The outcome may range widely, but the ceiling remains too high to justify sitting him. Start Burrow with cautious optimism in a matchup that could turn into another AFC North fireworks show. He carries legitimate QB1 potential in Week 13.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Jordan Love (GB)
Jordan Love enters Week 13 as a sit despite a favorable matchup on paper against Detroit. The Lions rank seventh in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but Love’s recent production has been extremely volatile, with three of his last four games falling below 10 fantasy points. His sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder further complicates matters, as Green Bay appears motivated to protect him and reduce unnecessary exposure to hits. Without Tucker Kraft, Love has failed to reach 200 passing yards in all three games, and the Packers have noticeably shifted toward a more conservative offensive approach.
While he managed 19.9 points against Detroit in Week 1, the current state of Green Bay’s offense lacks the explosiveness needed to trust him. Green Bay’s offense is simply not designed to elevate his passing numbers unless the game script forces their hand, which has been rare. He is best suited for Superflex formats only and remains a risky play in traditional one-QB leagues.
Jared Goff (DET)
Jared Goff is a recommended sit in Week 13 as he enters a tough matchup against a disciplined Packers defense. While he reached 279 yards and two touchdowns last week through sheer volume, his efficiency has begun to fade with consecutive weeks under seven yards per attempt. Detroit’s offense has shown signs of disjointed play recently, and Goff’s fantasy reliability has taken a noticeable hit as a result, despite Goff ranking 9th in passing yards, and his TD numbers are respectable. Goff has also been sacked 14 times in his last five games, a troubling trend against a Green Bay defense that excels at disrupting passing rhythm. Detroit’s offense has shown signs of disjointed play recently, and Goff’s fantasy reliability has taken a noticeable hit as a result.
The Packers have allowed just 13 passing touchdowns all season, tied for seventh-fewest in the league, and they limited Goff to a single garbage-time score in Week 1. Green Bay’s pass defense has been elite since Week 8, ranking second in passing yards allowed, sixth in yards per attempt allowed, and fifth in passer rating allowed. The Packers also force opposing offenses into methodical, low-scoring scripts, which caps touchdown upside. While Detroit could be forced to throw more if the run game stalls, the matchup metrics still point overwhelmingly to risk. Goff profiles as a low-end QB2 with limited upside, making him a clear sit for Week 13 fantasy football lineups.
Running Backs to Start
Chase Brown (CIN)
Chase Brown has emerged as one of the hottest running backs in fantasy football and remains a must-start option in Week 13. Since Week 9, he has essentially operated as one of the most utilized backs in fantasy since Samaje Perine got hurt, posting an 88.9% snap share, a 79.2% route share, and a 20% target share. Over that stretch, he has averaged 21.3 touches and 123 total yards per game while ranking as the RB9 in fantasy points per game—despite not scoring a single touchdown. His underlying metrics are just as impressive, ranking fourth in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt since Week 7.
The matchup is particularly appealing as Baltimore has quietly become vulnerable on the ground, giving up the third-highest explosive run rate and ninth-highest missed tackle rate since Week 8. Brown’s consistency in scrimmage yard production—five straight games over 100 total yards—makes him one of the highest-floor options available. Even with Samaje Perine returning to the mix, Brown’s role remains secure given Cincinnati’s commitment to featuring him in both phases of the offense. With Joe Burrow returning and the Bengals likely leaning on the run to control tempo, Brown is positioned for another standout fantasy performance.
Running Backs to Sit
David Montgomery (DET)
David Montgomery enters Week 13 as a sit as he continues to fade into a secondary role behind Jahmyr Gibbs. He has scored 8.1 PPR points or fewer in four of his last six games and has only one touchdown during that stretch, making him highly touchdown-dependent. Over his past two outings, he has combined for just 11 carries for 45 yards and four catches for 29 yards while playing 34% or fewer of snaps in three of his last four games. Montgomery’s usage has dropped significantly since Detroit’s Week 8 bye, with Gibbs taking over in red-zone opportunities, passing downs, and overall touch volume. Since Week 11, he has averaged just 7.5 touches and 37 total yards per game in his limited amount of snaps.
His Week 1 matchup against Green Bay resulted in only 43 total yards, and the Packers remain one of the league’s strongest run defenses, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. With declining volume and decreasing efficiency, Montgomery is barely a flex option heading into the Thanksgiving slate. Fantasy managers relying on him are betting solely on a touchdown, which has not arrived in five of his past six games. Montgomery should remain on the bench in all but the deepest formats this week.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (KC)
The Chiefs’ backfield is one to avoid in Week 13 as Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco now project to split work with Pacheco returning from injury. Since Week 9, Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s lead back, playing 75.7% of the snaps with 19.7 touches per game and 82.4 total yards per game, producing RB14 numbers during that span. Even so, he hasn’t been overly efficient, ranking just 39th in missed tackle rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt among 54 qualifying running backs. Meanwhile, Pacheco is returning from an MCL sprain after finally building momentum with three straight 50-yard rushing games earlier in the season. The Chiefs went 3-0 during Pacheco’s productive stretch/ With both backs now healthy, this backfield becomes unpredictable just as the matchup turns ugly.
Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate over the last three weeks and ranks 22nd in points allowed to running backs, but over the past two weeks—after adding new defensive pieces—they’ve quietly improved and given up just 90 total rushing yards, holding opponents under 2.8 yards per carry. The Chiefs will also be without their best run blocker in Trey Smith, which directly correlated with Hunt’s lack of efficiency in the second half last week. With unclear usage and a difficult opponent, both Chiefs running backs are better left on the bench in Week 13.
Wide Receivers to Start
Zay Flowers (BAL)
Zay Flowers has been a steady fantasy contributor all season, but his production has hovered in the 10–13 PPR point range without a true breakout game since the start of the season. Flowers’ underlying metrics, however, remain strong with a 26.7% target share, 69.2 receiving yards per game, and 2.45 yards per route run. Flowers has one of the best dominator ratings at the receiver position, but his limited production as of late has been directly correlated with Lamar Jackson’s struggles since returning. He enters Week 13 with a strong opportunity to finally deliver one against a Bengals defense that allows the most passing yards per game in the NFL.
Cincinnati has limited opposing WR1s recently, holding their last three top receivers to just six combined catches for 69 yards, including completely blanking Rome Odunze. He could see shadow coverage from DJ Turner, who has been effective but not unbeatable in primary matchups. Lamar Jackson should look to him early and often, especially with Cincinnati ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA. This matchup profiles as the perfect spot for a ceiling game if Baltimore leans into Flowers’ explosiveness. A long-awaited 20-point outing is very much in play.
Christian Watson (GB)
Christian Watson has reemerged as the Packers’ WR1 over the last two weeks, leading the team in targets, air yards, and overall receiving involvement. He scored twice against the Giants in Week 11 and followed that with a team-leading seven targets and 49 yards against Minnesota. Watson has also dominated Green Bay’s deep work, showing Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love’s clear intent to feature him downfield. Statistically, Watson has taken over this passing game with an 83% route share, 25% target share, and 36.2% air-yard share over the last two weeks. Most importantly, Watson is averaging over 20 yards a target while having over a 20% 1st read share, which will directly correlate to high-value fantasy production.
With Detroit allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to receivers and recently getting shredded by Wan’Dale Robinson, Watson carries high-end WR3 upside with WR2 potential. Detroit also sits near the bottom of the league in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, further boosting his scoring chances, while Detroit has also allowed the seventh-most yards per game to perimeter receivers over the last 6 weeks. Given his recent usage spike, he’s one of the best upside plays of the week.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Jameson Williams (DET)
Jameson Williams enters Week 13 coming off a complete dud, posting zero catches on three targets after three straight games of 66+ yards and a touchdown. Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling, Williams’ usage has improved but is still inconsistent, holding a 14% target share and 69 yards per game in that stretch. His role has grown with Sam LaPorta on IR, but his weekly floor remains extremely volatile. Williams already has three games under 10 receiving yards and two games without a single catch this season. It is also concerning that he has only seen 1 deep target over his last three games.
He draws a difficult matchup against a Packers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Green Bay also held Williams to just 23 yards on four catches in Week 1. With Jared Goff leaning heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown when pressured or trailing, Williams’ involvement could be limited. Green Bay’s defense has ranked in the top half of the league in limiting perimeter receivers since Week 7. Williams can still be used as a risky boom-or-bust flex, but the matchup and volume concerns make him a clear sit. Unless your lineup is desperate for upside, he’s better left on the bench.
Xavier Worthy (KC)
Xavier Worthy enters Week 13 healthy and coming off a 59-yard outing, but his fantasy outlook remains shaky with Rashee Rice back in the lineup. While Dallas allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, Worthy’s role has not been secure enough to trust. Since Rice returned, Worthy ranks as the WR60 in fantasy points per game while holding only a 16% target share. His efficiency has dipped as well, producing just 1.17 yards per route run during that span. Dallas may focus on slowing Rice, but that doesn’t guarantee enough volume for Worthy to take advantage. His big-play ability keeps him on the radar, but trusting it this week is risky.
Over his last five games, Worthy has just three red zone targets and five deep targets, leaving him reliant on low-probability splash plays. Dallas has also used two-high safeties at one of the highest rates in the league, which limits Worthy’s volume as he holds just an 11.7% target share against that coverage this season. While the Cowboys have allowed the most receiving yards to perimeter receivers in that span, Worthy’s usage simply isn’t aligning with that weakness. The matchup looks great on paper, but doesn’t match the actual volume indicators. He’s a talented player and the usage last week was encouraging, but he’s a sit this week.
Andrei Iosiavas (CIN)
Andrei Iosivas has flashed strong production when elevated into a larger role, including last week’s four-catch, 61-yard performance as Cincinnati’s WR2. Iosivas has been efficient this year, producing three top-36 fantasy finishes and earning five red zone targets and five deep targets. With Tee Higgins in concussion protocol and on a short week, Iosivas is positioned for another expanded role on Thursday night. However, the matchup becomes much tougher against a Ravens defense that has tightened significantly over the last three games.
Baltimore has allowed just 182.7 passing yards per game during that stretch, ranking eighth in fewest yards allowed. Their improved coverage has also stifled opposing WR2s, who have combined for only eight catches and zero touchdowns across their last three games. Baltimore ranks fourth in fewest PPR points per target allowed over the last 5 weeks, while being tough against slot receivers the entire year. His usage makes him a viable desperation flex in deeper leagues, but the floor is low. He’s better viewed as a sit unless you’re dealing with byes or injuries.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Romeo Doubs has been reliable most of the season, but his usage has dipped noticeably over the last three weeks. After a 91-yard performance in Week 9, he has totaled just seven catches for 81 yards since then. He also left early in Week 10 and has seen his route share decline since returning. In Week 12, he ran fewer routes than Dontayvion Wicks for the first time all year, and Christian Watson has clearly become the top option. Detroit is a favorable matchup on paper, but Doubs’ recent decline in usage makes him difficult to trust. With Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden potentially returning, his volume could shrink even further.
Doubs ranks as the WR40 in fantasy points per game with a 19% target share and 43.2 yards per game since Week 8. Against single-high looks—which Detroit runs heavily—he has been inefficient with only 0.42 yards per route run. Detroit has struggled against perimeter receivers, but Doubs has not shown the consistency needed to take advantage lately. His role has simply become too unstable to treat him as anything more than a risky flex. Another down week wouldn’t be a surprise based on how the offense is trending. Unless you’re short on options, Doubs is best left on the bench.
Matthew Golden (GB)
Matthew Golden may return from injury this week, but he has yet to establish meaningful fantasy value even when healthy. Before his wrist and shoulder issues, he had been reduced to a part-time role with a snap share under 36% in Weeks 9 and 11. He has averaged only three targets and 16.5 receiving yards per game this season. Despite preseason hype and first-round expectations, Golden has not been integrated into the offense as many hoped. With Green Bay’s receiver room getting healthier, his opportunities are likely to shrink further.
Golden’s rookie season has been slowed by injuries, but the bigger concern has been usage and lack of trust from the coaching staff. He has yet to score his first NFL touchdown, and his limited role makes it difficult to project meaningful production. The potential return of Reed and the rise of Watson only push him further down the pecking order. Detroit’s defense has been vulnerable in coverage, but Golden’s playing time is too uncertain to exploit that matchup. Unless something drastically changes, his role will remain limited in this offense. He is an easy sit and does not belong in starting lineups.
Tight Ends to Start
Mark Andrews (BAL)
Mark Andrews draws the best possible matchup this week, facing a Bengals defense that has been shredded by tight ends all season. Cincinnati has allowed the most receiving yards, most touchdowns, and most fantasy PPG to the position, while also giving up the second-most catches. The Bengals have surrendered 13 receiving touchdowns to tight ends—six more than any other team—and just allowed Hunter Henry to score twice. Andrews himself has scored four touchdowns in his last four games with Lamar Jackson and has a long history of success in this rivalry, finding the end zone in seven of 13 career meetings. While his season averages are modest at 3 catches for 25.9 yards per game, the matchup provides an ideal bounce-back spot after last week’s dud. Ten different tight ends have reached double-digit fantasy points against Cincinnati, with four surpassing 20 since Week 5.
Andrews could also be in line for one of his best yardage outputs of the year, as the Bengals have given up 163 more receiving yards to tight ends than the next-closest team. Lamar Jackson has passed for at least 290 yards and four touchdowns in each of his last two outings vs. Cincinnati, and the same script could unfold here as a high-scoring affair. Everything statistically points to a ceiling game on Thanksgiving. Andrews should be started confidently as a top-five tight end this week.
Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Jake Ferguson continues to be one of fantasy’s most reliable tight ends, ranking as the TE4 in fantasy points per game with an 18.9% target share and 41.8 receiving yards per contest. He has been heavily involved in Dallas’ passing attack, recording 65 receptions for 460 yards and seven touchdowns through 11 games. Ferguson ranks second among all tight ends in red zone targets, trailing only Trey McBride, and has seen consistent usage with a 22.1% first-read share. His recent stretch includes 14 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown across his last three games, which has been the downward trend since CeeDee Lamb returned from injury.
Kansas City presents a neutral matchup—they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest targets to tight ends but the 13th-highest yards per reception. Kansas City’s defense has allowed tight ends to produce chunk plays due to their coverage tendencies, boosting his yardage outlook. Projections land him around 4–5 receptions, 35–40 yards, and a solid chance at a touchdown. I think he likely goes beyond that with the focus being to slow down Lamb and George Pickens. You can start him confidently as a locked-in TE1 this week.
Tight Ends to Sit
Isaiah Likely (BAL)
Isaiah Likely has flashed talent throughout his career but has been largely unproductive this season, failing to top 17 receiving yards or 3.7 PPR points in all but one game. Since Week 6, he has posted a 57.3% route share with just an 11.5% target share and 19.3 receiving yards per game. His efficiency has also dipped, producing just 1.09 yards per route run and a 10.3% first-read share. Over his last six games, Likely has seen only three red zone targets and one deep target. He is a touchdown-dependent dart throw, and even in a favorable matchup, his usage does not support reliable fantasy value.
The Bengals have been the best matchup for tight ends all year, giving up the most yards, most touchdowns, and most fantasy points to the position—but that still doesn’t make Likely trustworthy. Mark Andrews dominates the tight end target share in Baltimore, and Likely has not shown standalone usability outside of games Andrews has missed. Ten tight ends have reached double digits against Cincinnati, including four with 20+ since Week 5, but Likely’s snap share and opportunities remain too inconsistent to project meaningful production. His advanced metrics reflect the same issues—low separation, minimal efficiency, and a poor dominator rating. While many will be tempted because Cincinnati bleeds points to tight ends, his role simply isn’t secure enough. He’s a desperation streamer only if you’re completely out of options. In most formats, he should be left on the bench this week.
Noah Fant (CIN)
Noah Fant’s role in Cincinnati has diminished with the return of Mike Gesicki, and Fant’s snap share has dropped sharply, making him a sit in most formats heading into Week 13. His limited targets and reduced involvement, just one target last week, kill both floor and upside, and there’s little reason to expect a usage reversal on a short week. With Burrow’s return shifting the offense and Gesicki reclaiming snaps, Fant is now a low-priority piece better suited to deep-league stash lists than active lineups.
Fant’s efficiency when targeted is fine, but fantasy football is primarily about volume, and that’s where he’s currently lacking. Managers should consider dropping him in shallow formats or relegating him to IR/bench spots in deeper leagues without expectations of near-term starts. Fant is only in deep league consideration and has a small chance to turn in a strong performance against a tough Ravens defense.
