The Thursday Night Football showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers brings plenty of intrigue for fantasy managers in Week 15. The Bucs are looking to rebound after a tough stretch and maintain pace in the NFC South before their key matchups against the Carolina Panthers ahead. Below, I’ll explain who you can trust in your lineups, who should stay on the bench, and which players fall into that tricky gray area for Thursday night.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Bjian Robinson RB (ATL)
- Bucky Irving RB (TB)
Strong Starts
Baker Mayfield QB (TB)
Baker Mayfield has struggled in recent weeks, failing to surpass 18.8 fantasy points in four straight games and posting under 200 passing yards each outing. Injuries and inefficiencies, particularly from rookie Emeka Egbuka and an inconsistent offensive line, have contributed to the slump. Week 15 presents a much more favorable matchup against Atlanta, a team Mayfield has historically dominated. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in his last four games versus the Falcons, including a 22.6-point performance in Week 1. Atlanta has also allowed three of the last four quarterbacks to score at least 18 points, highlighting the upside for Mayfield. The return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan gives him a near-complete receiving corps for the first time all season, boosting his ceiling. This combination of the matchup and reinforcements makes Mayfield a strong start for fantasy football managers looking for a Week 15 rebound.
Even with a recent string of subpar performances, Mayfield’s skill set and favorable history against Atlanta make him a prime fantasy start. His connection with targets like Egbuka may have been inconsistent, but the Falcons’ league-worst perimeter coverage increases the likelihood of positive outcomes. Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled to score, totaling just 59 points over the last 14 quarters, and Mayfield must find his rhythm to keep playoff hopes alive. Historical performance against this defense suggests a high ceiling, and the floor is safer than recent results imply. Fantasy managers can view him as a QB1 this week. The return of Evans and McMillan further legitimizes starting Mayfield, as he now has weapons capable of breaking games open. Week 15 may serve as the perfect opportunity for Mayfield to shake off his slump.
Kyle Pitts TE (ATL)
Kyle Pitts has emerged as the primary receiving option for the Falcons in the absence of Drake London, averaging eight targets and six receptions over the last four games. Over the last three contests, he has 13 catches for 172 yards, showing that the tight end position remains viable in fantasy football despite general season-wide depletion. His volume, rather than touchdowns, drives fantasy relevance, as he has only one score this year. Pitts’ knee injury left him questionable for Thursday night, but he is expected to suit up this week. London’s confirmed absence ensures Pitts will continue to see top-target status if active. Tampa Bay has been middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, making Pitts a mid-range TE1 option for fantasy managers. His ability to move the chains and produce yardage consistently keeps him relevant even without scoring opportunities. Fantasy football owners should consider him a start at tight end, particularly in PPR formats, given his role in the Falcons’ offense.
With London sidelined, Pitts is the Falcons’ top pass-catcher and a reliable option for consistent yardage production. He has shown strong chemistry with quarterback Kirk Cousins, receiving 26 targets across Cousins’ four starts, and continues to convert targets into receptions and first downs. Tampa Bay’s defense limits explosive plays for tight ends, but Pitts’ usage ensures a floor for fantasy points. While touchdowns are not a guarantee, his chain-moving capability and target volume make him a must-start for TE-needy lineups. Week 15 against the Bucs carries potential for steady fantasy output, particularly in PPR leagues. Riding the hot hand in terms of volume ensures Pitts remains a viable start in the playoff push.
Emeka Egbuka WR (TB)
Emeka Egbuka has been inefficient in recent weeks, catching just nine passes for 89 yards on 26 targets over the last three games. Despite a high target share, his catch rate has hovered just above 30%, and drops have limited his fantasy production. Still, Egbuka’s overall usage and role as Baker Mayfield’s primary target in certain situations maintain his fantasy relevance. Atlanta ranks worst in points allowed to perimeter receivers, suggesting a rebound is possible this week. In Week 14, Egbuka drew 11 targets and 173 air yards against the Saints despite producing only 15 yards, illustrating that opportunity remains high even if results have lagged. Over the season, he ranks fourth in air yards and first in deep targets, providing clear upside in the right matchup. For fantasy football managers, Egbuka remains a strong start in Week 15 based on volume and matchup alone.
The law of averages favors Egbuka breaking out after an inefficient stretch, particularly against a Falcons secondary that has struggled with perimeter receivers. The Falcons have allowed the most points per game to perimeter receivers this season, boding well for a bounce-back game. Mayfield continues to target him heavily, averaging nearly nine targets per game over the last seven contests. While recent production has been frustrating, Egbuka remains a consistent option in Tampa Bay’s passing attack, even with the return of Mike Evans this week. Fantasy managers should not shy away from starting him despite the recent cold streak. Week 15 is an opportune matchup for Egbuka to return to top-10 wide receiver form.
Players to Sit
Kirk Cousins QB (ATL)
Kirk Cousins has been highly inconsistent since taking over for Michael Penix Jr., averaging a modest 10 points per game. He has thrown for three touchdowns and three interceptions over that span, resulting in an unreliable fantasy floor. Cousins has also been without his top target in Drake London, who is also expected to miss this week’s game, creating that unstable floor in the passing game. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled against quarterbacks this season, and Kirk is in play for many teams, banking on his historical success against them.
Even with Tampa Bay ranking fifth in points allowed to quarterbacks, Cousins’ recent performances do not inspire confidence. His lack of mobility and decision-making issues have led to inconsistent results, particularly in high-pressure or must-win situations. Fantasy managers should be wary of relying on him in Week 15, as the Falcons face a defense that can still apply pressure despite injuries. Only those in deep leagues or two-quarterback formats should consider starting Cousins, and even then, risk remains high. He has not shown the ability to produce reliably in recent games, making his upside limited. In standard leagues, the safest play is to explore alternative quarterback options with more stable production. Cousins is a high-risk, low-floor option for fantasy football managers.
Darnell Mooney WR (ATL)
Darnell Mooney has been largely ineffective this season, recording just 12 catches over the last seven games despite Drake London’s absence. His role as the temporary WR1 has not translated into meaningful fantasy production, as he tallied only one reception for six yards against Seattle in Week 14. Over the last three games, Mooney has amassed only six receptions for 105 yards, highlighting his struggles as a fantasy option. As I mentioned before, Kyle Pitts has taken on the role of the most consistent pass catcher since London’s injury. Mooney has also struggled analytically this year, ranking 228th in EPA, 98th in points per route run, and 69th in target separation. The one silver lining is his 9th-ranked average depth of target this year.
The Buccaneers have been middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers, limiting potential upside even in a favorable matchup. Fantasy managers should be cautious about starting Mooney, as his usage has not been consistent or productive enough to rely on in Week 15. While he may get some opportunities for deep passes in this one, the lack of volume will likely prevent him from having a strong day in the fantasy playoffs. He may serve as a risky WR4 or Flex only if no better options are available. He represents a high-risk, low-reward option heading into Thursday night football. Darnell Mooney remains a clear sit for fantasy football managers this week.
Chris Godwin WR (TB)
Chris Godwin has seen increased usage in recent weeks, playing at least 66% of snaps over the last two games and combining for eight catches on 13 targets. Despite this, his matchup against Atlanta may cap upside, as Falcons WR2s have produced only 22.6 receiving yards per game over their last three contests. While Godwin is expected to play, the return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could reduce his target share. He posted a season-high five catches for 55 yards in Week 14, showing he can be productive in the short term, but volume may fluctuate in Week 15.
Atlanta’s defense ranks middle of the pack against slot receivers overall, providing some floor but limiting ceiling. For fantasy football managers, Godwin is likely a mid-range WR4, depending on roster construction. He is not a must-start this week, but he offers occasional scoring potential as the team’s third option in the passing game. With the lack of guaranteed volume in a healthy Bucs receiving core, don’t play Godwin until we see who comes out on top in the pecking order.
The Handcuff RBs
Tyler Allgeier, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker are all risky options heading into Week 15 and should be considered sits in fantasy football lineups. Allgeier has been heavily touchdown-dependent, finding the end zone four times in his last five games but failing to produce consistent fantasy points otherwise. White, despite seeing a decent role with 49% of snaps and 12 touches in Week 14, remains inefficient and unlikely to provide a reliable floor for fantasy managers. Tucker’s limited snaps and usage behind Irving make him strictly a touchdown-dependent option with little weekly upside. With Tampa Bay likely to control the game script against Atlanta, none of these backs offer a safe or high-floor fantasy contribution. Managers should avoid rostering these players in startable spots and look to alternative running backs with more consistent volume. All three exemplify how red-zone reliance and limited touches can cap fantasy potential, making them clear sits this week.
On the Fence
Mike Evans WR (TB)
Mike Evans is expected to return from a broken collarbone in Week 15, giving Tampa Bay a full complement of pass-catchers for the first time in months. His historical production when active is strong, but a long layoff and potential snap restrictions limit his fantasy ceiling. Evans could see four to six targets, potentially catching one or two for a touchdown, placing him in WR2 territory. Atlanta has struggled against perimeter receivers, which increases his upside if fully healthy. Before his injury, he ranked 8th in the NFL in 1st read target share, 14th in ADOT, and 4th in 1st read target share vs man coverage, where the Falcons rank in the middle of the NFL.
As mentioned before, Evans will also have a great matchup on the perimeter against this Falcons secondary. The biggest concern for him this week is what his role will be. His role in the offense may be phased in, particularly in the passing game, which makes him a risky option, potentially with less volume. The concerns with his usage place him directly in the “on the fence” section. I would lean more towards playing Evans if you have notable struggles at the position, but if you have some other strong matchups this week, it may be best to avoid him in case of a smaller role. Expect Mike Evans this week to have a wide range of outcomes, making him one of the most volatile options in Week 15.
