Well, it took a while, but the score prediction eventually came to life. After a slow start and a 17-13 halftime lead for Kentucky, Alabama stormed back in the second half to win 45-17. It was a little higher-scoring than my 34-13 prediction, but each team also earned a defensive touchdown. Nevertheless, that’s two straight covers for Alabama. The Tide roll on to a home game against Florida State on Saturday.
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL
Spread: Alabama (-19.5)
Over/Under: 48.5
Coordinator Matchup
Calling the plays for Florida State will be offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. He’s somewhat of a fast riser in the coaching industry, as he was coaching high school football just 12 years ago. However, fast risers still meet speed bumps along the way. Harris Jr. will be calling just his 7th game as a college coordinator. He was named OC at FIU and UCF, but he never called plays at FIU and called just 4 games for UCF. He’s now called 2 games for FSU, scoring 31 against New Mexico State and 24 against SMU.
Across from Harris Jr. will be Alabama DC Kane Wommack. Wommack is quickly becoming one of the hottest DC names in college football. Wommack is now in his third season as Alabama’s defensive play caller and his 9th season as a defensive play caller overall. Wommack’s defense has grown more complex each year, using a mix of pre-snap/post-snap coverage variance, front-four stunts, and exotic blitzes. His extensive experience in the secondary and defensive front has allowed Alabama to use a mix of coverages that were previously unavailable to him.
This will be a complete coordinator mismatch on Saturday. Wommack will be introducing Harris Jr. to defensive looks that Harris Jr. hasn’t seen in his young play-calling career. It’s no fault of Harris Jr.; it’s just how growth works in this sport.
Size Mismatch?
The FSU front seven has multiple NFL talents, including Mandrell Desir, Daniel Lyons, and Chris Jones. However, the size of the FSU defensive line is something to monitor in this game. The front four consists of 259, 292, 270, and 251 pounds. Including the backups, FSU will have just one lineman weighing 300+ pounds. Mandrell Desir, the starting DT, weighs just 270 pounds despite playing in the interior. While a force in pass rush, Desir can be pushed off the spot by stronger interior offensive linemen.
The Alabama offensive line averages 6’5 318, with the LT and RG at 6’7 326, and 6’6 324. If the second half of the Kentucky game is a clue as to what’s to come, FSU can expect a solid dose of the Alabama run game on Saturday. Will FSU be able to handle the size and length of Alabama’s OL over a full game? The answer depends on the game plan of Alabama OC Ryan Grubb.
FSU Secondary vs Keelon Russell
To be straightforward, the Florida State pass defense has been terrible. The Seminoles defense currently ranks #96 in completion % allowed, #107 in yards per pass allowed, #124 in passing yards per game allowed, and #90 in sack %. Despite the FSU starting secondary logging a combined 3,152 career snaps, it has looked out of place through two games. Just last week, SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings passed for 430 yards on 11.9 YPA.
Alabama QB Keelon Russell is still looking for his breakout game. The star-studded redshirt freshman had his fair share of struggles on the road at Kentucky last week, throwing 2 INTs and fumbling 1. The path to beating the young QB will consist of mixed coverages and heavy pressure. Florida State has struggled to find a pass rush early in the season, and I’m not sure it will improve when facing the likes of Jackson Lloyd and Michael Carroll, but the Noles need to get after the QB to protect their lackluster secondary.
Statistically, this should be the game where Keelon Russell really finds his footing. But the FSU defense has plenty of experience, along with a defensive coordinator who has called defenses since 2019. The Seminoles defense will likely come out guns blazing against the youngster. We’ll see how Russell and OC Ryan Grubb respond.
Prediction
Alabama: 38
Florida State: 13
Alabama has outperformed the spread in its first two games. I think they’ll do it again in their third game. Florida State managed just 24 points on 12 possessions, even with SMU turning the ball over four times. The entire Seminole offense seems dependent on RB Ousmane Kromah breaking tackles and hitting long runs after contact. I can’t see that working in this game, especially with the previously mentioned mismatch between Tim Harris Jr. and Kane Wommack.
The lack of pass rush and a disappointing secondary create the perfect opportunity for Keelon Russell to get comfortable in this game. The return of RG Michael Carroll should further improve Alabama’s running game efficiency from last week.
