To recap last week, Alabama seems to enjoy spotting the other team with the lead. After falling behind 21-6, the Crimson Tide outscored Florida State 44-15 for the rest of the game. My score prediction of 38-13 would’ve been great if first quarters didn’t exist. Quarterback Keelon Russell had a true coming-out party, totaling 376 yards and 4 total TD’s. The Tide also turned back the clock with its running game, amounting to 247 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC. The Tide now moves on to week four, when it hosts the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL
Spread: Alabama (-12.5)
Over/Under: 54.5
Coordinator Matchup
On the offensive side of the ball, Alabama’s offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, has recently come under fire from the fanbase. Most fans are frustrated with Alabama’s inability to start games on a positive note, and they voiced that frustration loud and clear last week, as boos rained down from the seats after two empty drives to start the game against FSU. In fact, Alabama’s offense earned just 34 yards on 14 plays across its first three drives.
On Saturday, Ryan Grubb will face one of the SEC’s most respected defensive coordinators, Clayton White. Matrix Analytical Solutions recently rated White as the SEC’s 4th-best defensive play caller. Since Kalen DeBoer was hired at Alabama, he’s faced Clayton White twice. White’s defenses have held Alabama to 27 points in 2024 and 22 points in 2025 (Alabama finished with 29 points in 2025 thanks to a pick-six).
Needless to say, Alabama will likely start the game slowly again on Saturday. White’s defensive resume against the Tide is as good as anyone’s over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, Ryan Grubb’s resume of rocky starts keeps growing.
Impact of Injuries
Thursday’s injury report listed multiple players whose absence will have a major impact on this game. Alabama will be without LB Justin Hill and LB Desmond Umeozulu. Hill is perhaps Alabama’s best edge-setting run defender. Hill is a key defender in Alabama’s 3-4 defense, and he also enters the field in passing situations thanks to his ability to defend the flat. With South Carolina’s top four rushers averaging a combined 8.3 YPC, Hill is one of the last players Alabama wants to be without in this game.
Umeozulu recently earned the start at DE for Alabama’s game against Florida State. Previously, Umeozulu was used on obvious pass downs as a designated pass rusher. His recent breakthrough into the starting lineup was a positive sign for Alabama’s overall depth on a down-to-down basis. While his run defense can be a concern, his length and athleticism at 6’6″ will be missed when trying to keep LaNorris Sellers in the pocket.
For South Carolina, DT Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy has been ruled out for this game. Brownlow-Dindy was South Carolina’s highest-graded run defender among returning defensive linemen. He suffered an injury in South Carolina’s last game. His absence will be felt against an Alabama offense that has been one of the nation’s best at running the ball.
Several key players are returning from injury in this game. For South Carolina, DE Dylan Stewart and OT Jacarrius Peak will play after being on snap-count restrictions against Mississippi State. For Alabama, RB AK Dear and WR Noah Rogers are slated to make their season debuts. Dear ran as RB1 late in fall camp for Alabama, while Rogers ran as WR3.
What’s New?
These two teams have played a one-possession game in each of their last two meetings. So, is there anything new between these teams that suggests a different outcome? That’s where Alabama’s newfound rushing attack comes into play.
In the 2024 matchup, Alabama rushed for 104 yards on 2.7 YPC. In the 2025 matchup, Alabama rushed for 72 yards on 3.1 YPC. In the 2025 matchup, after going up 14-6 to start the second half, Alabama totaled just 13 rushing yards on its next 4 drives. The Tide had no way to put teams away in the last two seasons. The lack of a run game forced Alabama to pass to put away games, and that doesn’t work against good defenses.
Now, in 2026, Alabama is one of college football’s top rushing offenses in the second half and fourth quarter. South Carolina will have one half to gain the lead in this game. After that, Alabama will lean on a defense that needs quality depth.
Prediction
Alabama: 41
South Carolina: 23
Alabama has outperformed its projected point total in each game this season. Currently, Alabama is projected to score 33- 34 points in this game. South Carolina’s defense allowed Mississippi State’s offense to explode, giving up 41 points. Alabama is averaging 47.7 PPG, including two games against P4 competition in which the Tide scored 45 and 50. I believe South Carolina has the best defensive talent Alabama has faced so far, but I can’t see its secondary holding up against this offense for long.
I expect Alabama’s defense to rebound after an abysmal performance against Florida State. It was Alabama’s second time allowing 30+ points in its last 17 games. The other 30+ point performance came from the national champion Indiana Hoosiers. South Carolina has playmakers. LaNorris Sellers is inconsistent, but he’s a walking explosive play. Donovan Murph is averaging 27.2 yards per catch, and Nyck Harbor is the fastest player in football. The top-3 running backs are averaging 8.6 YPC combined, granted against inferior competition.
I believe South Carolina gets an easy touchdown off a forced turnover from Dylan Stewart. Whether it’s Stewart forcing an errant throw, a strip sack, or something else, I can see the Gamecocks starting an early possession inside the red zone thanks to a big play from Stewart.
