Key Matchups for Week 4 in the NFL
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Stat: The Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and are particularly vulnerable to slot production.
The Bears’ secondary has been a sweet spot for opposing offenses all season, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and struggling especially against slot production. Jakobi Meyers lines up in the slot quite often and should be set for a strong week.
Meyers has a 22.6% target share and ranks as WR22 in fantasy points per game, with efficiency numbers that jump even higher against two-high coverages — a look Chicago uses at the league’s third-highest rate. With Jaylon Johnson sidelined, the Bears have allowed the second-most points per target to slot receivers.
On the ground, Chicago’s defense has been equally vulnerable, allowing 5.5 yards per carry (31st). The Bears’ offense has also been far less effective on the road, averaging just 15.9 points per game with Caleb Williams as starter. Expect Brock Bowers to have a solid outing, 27% of all targets against the Bears have gone to tight ends which is the highest rate league wide.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Stat: Omarion Hampton finished with 25 touches and 24.9 fantasy points last week and could replicate that production against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Omarion Hampton’s workload has taken off since Najee Harris went down, playing 86% of the snaps and handling 14 of the team’s 16 carries last week.
The Giants have struggled against the run, giving up a league-high 43.8% of carries for more yards than expected even allowing 25.0 fantasy points to Javonte Williams in Week 2. Look for Hampton to play a vital role this Sunday even if he splits duties with a practice squad back.
Looking over at the Chargers‘ defense, opponents have been held to the ninth-fewest passing yards per game (182.0) and historically does well against inexperienced quarterbacks, with first-time starters going just 3-17 against them since 1967.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Stat: Trevor Lawrence, has thrown 13 interceptions when blitzed since 2021. tied for third most among qualified quarterbacks in that span.
With Nick Bosa sidelined, San Francisco has seen an increased blitz rate — jumping from 20% to nearly 32% when Bosa is out. That creates a clear pressure point in this matchup, especially with Lawrence already completing a career-low 55.8% of passes and hampered by a league-high 10 drops through three games.
Fantasy managers could take a look at Ricky Pearsall, who has posted 14+ points in two of his last three outings while benefiting from increased volume against banged-up defenses.
Jacksonville’s secondary has allowed the third-most receptions and sixth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts, positioning the 49ers’ receivers for steady production alongside Christian McCaffrey. The Niners also enter with the NFL’s third-toughest scoring defense (16.3 PPG allowed).
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Stat: Ravens are 1-5 versus Patrick Mahomes (including the playoffs), who has thrown 14 touchdowns and three interceptions against the Baltimore defense.
Patrick Mahomes’ history lines up well with a Baltimore defense that has already surrendered 96 points through three games — the most in franchise history — and is struggling with missed tackles and limited pass rush. There isn’t much to say that isn’t obvious when watching the Ravens so far this season.
It might be worth consideringTravis Kelce in this matchup, as Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most points to tight ends. Kelce has averaged 7.1 targets, six receptions, and 78.2 yards per game against the Ravens in his career. Be mindful that Kelce hasn’t looked as good this season as he has in the past but maybe this is the game to turn the Kansas City offense around.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson remains a strong road performer (31-15-2 ATS) with Baltimore’s offensive output failing to translate to wins despite scoring 111 points — the most ever by a losing team through three games.
