To recap last week, Alabama defeated Mississippi State 56-23. The 49-23 score prediction was almost spot on. Granted, Alabama pulled most of its offensive starters after a touchdown with 12 minutes left. Keelon Russell made yet another Heisman Trophy statement, while the Alabama defense showed out. The Crimson Tide defenders sacked Kamario Taylor 5 times, collected 9 TFLs, intercepted 2 passes, forced 2 fumbles, and held Mississippi State to 18 rushing yards on 0.6 YPC.
Alabama continues to outperform Vegas drastically, and it’s time to consider it the #1 team in college football. But who’s coming to Tuscaloosa on Saturday? The Georgia Bulldogs. Perhaps the two best teams in college football will square off Saturday night. Even a hurricane can’t stop this game. Despite possible heavy rain, strong winds, and a wet football field, the show must go on.
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL
Spread: Alabama (-2.5)
Over/Under: 51.5
The Weather
Let’s go ahead and get this section out of the way. As you all know, Hurricane Isaias is currently moving through the Gulf of America. It’s expected to make landfall on the southern coast late Friday night. By kickoff, Isaias will have passed through Tuscaloosa, but the storm’s remnants will still be around. Hopefully, the rain will be down to a drizzle, and the winds should die down by 6:30 p.m. Central Time.
Winds are expected to be just 5- 10 mph, but gusts are still TBD. The question we all need to address now is: How will the weather affect the game’s outcome?
You would expect these conditions to favor Georgia, the traditionally more power-based football team. At the same time, Alabama is known for its high-flying offense this year, led by Keelon Russell. But what if that expectation differs from reality? What if Alabama’s reinvented OL and DL give them the edge in these conditions?
I want to provide one last little-known fact about the field before we move on. A couple of years ago, the University of Alabama built a new drainage system for the stadium and playing field. It was designed to mimic the systems used at Augusta National for the Masters. This new system will have a massive impact on the field. While the field will still be wet during the game, it will not be as messy as you might picture.
Gunner Stockton
Since the start of the 2025 season, Stockton averages 207.5 passing YPG and 8.9 YPA. In his two games against Alabama, those numbers drop to 143 PYPG and 6.2 YPA.
Against Alabama in particular, Stockton has never led long touchdown drives through the air. In fact, despite Georgia running for 227 yards in their first matchup last season, Alabama won because Stockton couldn’t throw against Alabama’s defense. In the SEC Championship, Georgia scored 28 points against Alabama on drives of 21, 57, 40, and 12 yards. Because of mistakes like a missed block on a blocked punt, Georgia was given a short field against Alabama throughout the game.
So, we’re heading into a third matchup between Gunner Stockton and Alabama, and we’re not sure that Stockton can lead Georgia’s offense through the air. Why is that important? Because Alabama’s run defense is one of the country’s most improved units.
Alabama Run Defense
From a yards-per-carry allowed standpoint, Alabama currently ranks #7 in the country. That’s a far cry from ranking 94th in 2025. Against a top-25 strength of schedule so far, Alabama is allowing just 2.5 YPC, versus 4.7 YPC in 2025.
Georgia is allowing 2.3 YPC this season, and most people will argue that Georgia brings a better run defense to this game. But I want to counter this statement with some statistics. Alabama’s strength of schedule ranks #24, while Georgia’s ranks #98. To compare run defenses across such a large schedule discrepancy, we need to use relative performance statistics. Relative performance is determined by how Alabama’s run defense performed against Team A compared to Team A’s rushing averages against other opponents. These relative performance statistics are provided by College Football Nerds, who possess one of the country’s best college football scoring models.
Alabama currently ranks #2 in relative rushing YPC allowed. Georgia currently ranks #18. Total defense metrics punish Alabama for allowing 5.4 team YPC to South Carolina. Relative statistics actually reward Alabama because South Carolina was averaging 7+ YPC coming into the game. In comparison, total defense rewards Georgia for holding Oklahoma to 1.9 YPC. Meanwhile, relative statistics don’t reward Georgia for that performance, since New Mexico held Oklahoma to 1.9 YPC the week prior.
Another example: Alabama held Mississippi State to 0.6 YPC, while Mississippi State averaged 5.5 YPC going into the game. Relative performance stats treat that as one of the best run defense performances of the season. By comparison, Georgia held Vanderbilt to 3.3 YPC, but Vanderbilt was held to 2.6 YPC against Delaware and 2.7 YPC against Auburn. This supports my argument that, contrary to popular opinion, Alabama has the better run defense in this matchup.
Alabama OL/TE vs Georgia’s Front
Early-season data suggest Alabama has rebuilt its run game. After finishing the 2025 season ranked in the 100s in YPC, Alabama now ranks #35. By relative performance in YPC, Alabama ranks #23, while Georgia ranks #27. The nation is praising Alabama’s new OL coach, Adrian Klemm, while Alabama’s tight ends are making weekly highlight reels of pancake blocks. But it’s time for the new personnel to put up or shut up.
Just because I believe Alabama has the better run defense in this matchup doesn’t mean Georgia doesn’t have a top-5 to top-10 run defense. This will be the most talented defensive front Alabama’s new personnel has seen by far. Alabama’s rushing attack has made noise so far, but if it fails to produce in this game, then Keelon Russell will have an unbelievable amount of weight on his shoulders.
So far this season, Alabama has been the most multiple offense in college football. The offense is averaging 4.89 YPC on inside power, 5.6 YPC on outside zone/read, and 6.6 YPC on TE insert runs. This unit’s run scheme has shifted from strictly duo to a wide assortment of runs.
Alabama seems to have fallen in love with 12 personnel this season. The TE unit has allowed the Tide to run a wide variety of plays from this set. However, Georgia poses a strong challenge for a team that uses 12 personnel often. Currently, Georgia is ranked #3 in the SEC in success rate allowed against 12 personnel. If Alabama plays in 12 personnel throughout this game, it will need to grind out drives for four quarters.
Can Georgia Affect Keelon Russell?
There’s really only one way Georgia knows how to create pressure: a blitz. Georgia blitzes 42.4% of the time, the 3rd-highest rate in the SEC. The only issue with relying on the blitz is that it’s difficult to blitz an offense that is operating on schedule. For example, Alabama’s early down conversion percentage currently sits at 51.7%.
Georgia has struggled to pressure the QB without bringing linebackers to blitz. In 2025, Georgia’s DL/EDGE players totaled just 8.5 sacks. Currently, that number in 2026 is just 5.5. In comparison, Alabama’s DL/EDGE players already have 12.5 sacks.
Georgia’s DL/EDGE players have mustered just 27 pressures. In comparison, Alabama’s DL/EDGE players have created 66 pressures. 27 is the second-lowest number in the SEC, just ahead of Arkansas, which has 25. If you can’t create pressure, you can’t stop good QBs. Meanwhile, Keelon Russell ranks #1 in 20+ yard completions, #1 in 20+ throw yardage, and #3 in 20+ yard passer rating.
Blitzing Keelon Russell all game is not an option for Georgia, and the Bulldogs will have to find a way to create pressure with 4 or 5 guys. Over his last three games, Russell has been highly effective against the blitz. He’s completed 64% of his passes for 343 yards, 8.4 YPA, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs. Given Alabama’s more vertical passing attack, these numbers are phenomenal. In a more horizontal passing game, you generally see fewer turnovers against the blitz, which helps explain Gunner Stockton’s nation-leading efficiency against the blitz.
Prediction
Alabama: 34
Georgia: 24
As I keep stating in these previews, Alabama has outperformed its projected team point total in every game. Adding a run game to this DeBoer/Grubb offense has created a well-oiled machine. Georgia has everything it needs to slow this offense down, except a real pass rush. Kirby Smart’s defenses have always tried to slow down elite QBs by playing great coverage. I’ve seen that strategy disappoint too many times.
If you don’t pay much attention to who’s favored in a game, this is the first time Alabama has been favored over Georgia since their 2020 matchup. Vegas knows most people believe Georgia has been a better football team than Alabama for years. So for Vegas to favor Alabama in this game suggests they’re willing to let people get “value” on Georgia as the underdog. Vegas is risking a lot of money by making Alabama the favorite in this matchup, since a lot of money will likely go on Georgia.
For the first time in at least 5 years, I believe Alabama enters this game with the better defensive front. I expect Alabama to slow down Georgia’s running game, and if they do, I don’t think Gunner Stockton can push the ball downfield enough to keep up.
