SEASON PULSE CHECK
Coming off the bye week at 2–2, the Bears are in a solid spot to build momentum. While early byes aren’t ideal, this one came at the right time—Chicago was banged up and needed the extra week to reset physically and mentally. The gritty win over the Raiders in Week 4 showed flashes of toughness and growth under Ben Johnson’s leadership. Back in August, I predicted a 10–7 finish and a playoff berth, and that path is still very much alive.
The Bears have already taken two of three from a tough opening stretch and now face a slate of winnable games against the Saints, Giants, Steelers, and Browns. Even more encouraging, matchups that once looked like automatic losses—like Week 8 at Baltimore and Week 9 at Cincinnati—now feel far more competitive. If they can split those two and clean up the missed opportunity from Week 1 against Minnesota, they’ll be right back in the mix.
PATH TO THE PLAYOFFS
The idea that the Bears can’t make the playoffs is outdated. This team is responding to Ben Johnson’s system with discipline, energy, and a clear sense of identity. ESPN currently gives them an 18% chance to make the postseason, but that number doesn’t reflect how favorable the schedule has become. Joe Burrow is expected to miss the Week 9 game, and the Ravens—once a juggernaut—are sitting at 1–4 with a defense that’s struggling to stop anyone.
The Bears need to take care of business against teams like the Saints and Giants, split their divisional games with Minnesota and Green Bay, and grab two wins from the Commanders, Ravens, and Bengals games. It’s all there. The key will be staying healthy, limiting penalties, and continuing to improve on both sides of the ball. A 10–7 finish isn’t just possible—it’s within reach. That journey starts Monday night in Washington.
INJURY REPORT
The Bears are getting healthier at the right time, and that could be a game-changer. Cornerback Kyler Gordon is set to make his season debut against Washington, bringing much-needed help to a secondary that’s been stretched thin. Linebacker T.J. Edwards and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are also expected back—two key pieces in stopping the run, which has been a major issue for Chicago (allowing 6.15 yards per carry, worst in the NFL).
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has made run defense a priority, and getting these veterans back should help stabilize the front seven. On offense, tight end Colston Loveland returns, giving Caleb Williams another reliable target in the short-to-intermediate game. The offensive line could also see the return of Darnell Wright, who’s quietly having a strong season, ranked 34th out of 113 tackles by PFF. Add in the potential debuts of Austin Booker and Travis Homer, and the Bears are getting reinforcements across the board—just in time for a critical stretch.
BEARS VS COMMANDERS PREVIEW: STORYLINES
Revenge Game: The Bears return to the Scene of the “Miracle in Maryland”
The Bears’ return to FedEx Field is more than a geographical revisit; it’s a confrontation with a psychological scar that reshaped the franchise’s trajectory. In the 2024 loss last season, Jayden Daniels threw a 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown as time expired, sealing an 18–15 win and triggering a 10-game losing streak for Chicago. That game led to the firing of Matt Eberflus (lord Voldemort) and ushered in the Ben Johnson era. The psychological residue of that moment—the “Miracle in Maryland”—extends beyond the scoreboard and into the organizational psyche of the Bears. It was not merely a loss, but a symbolic unraveling of structural inefficiencies in coaching, defensive communication, and late-game situational execution.
In the weeks that followed, the Bears’ defensive EPA per play ranked 31st league-wide, and their red zone stop rate plummeted to 38%, underscoring a systemic collapse in confidence and cohesion. That loss set off multiple losses in heartbreaking fashion during the 2024 season. Ben Johnson can right this ship come Monday night and finally rid the Bears of the Eberflus stink.
QB Showdown: Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels
The quarterback matchup between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels is one of the most intriguing storylines heading into Week 6, especially for fans who appreciate the nuances of offensive play. Williams is known for his ability to extend plays and make throws off-platform, often turning broken plays into explosive gains. He’s already thrown for over 900 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, and leads the league in tight-window completions, showing his confidence and arm talent.
Daniels, on the other hand, is a more calculated dual-threat quarterback who thrives in rhythm and structure. He’s yet to throw an interception this season and boasts one of the highest yards-per-attempt averages in the NFL, thanks to his quick decision-making and ability to read defenses pre-snap. While Williams brings volatility and highlight-reel potential, Daniels offers consistency and ball security. This game will be a fascinating contrast in styles—chaos versus control—and could come down to which quarterback better exploits the weaknesses in the opposing defense. It is worth noting that Daniels has only played in 3 games this season so far.
Playoff Stakes & Strategic Pressure in a Crucial NFC Matchup
This Week 6 game between the Bears and Commanders is more than just a midseason clash—it’s a major turning point for Chicago’s playoff hopes. Right now, the Bears have about a 21% chance to make the playoffs, but a win on Monday night could push that number up to around 40%, depending on how other NFC teams perform. That’s a huge swing for a team trying to stay in the hunt.
The betting odds favor Washington by 4.5 points (as of 10/9/25), with an expected total score of 50, suggesting a competitive, moderately high-scoring game. Washington has a stronger statistical profile so far, with a +3 turnover margin and the best rushing attack in the league at 5.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Bears have struggled in key areas like red zone efficiency (just 42.1%, ranked 28th) and run defense.
From a strategy standpoint, the Bears may need to take more risks—going for it on fourth down, pushing the tempo, and leaning into aggressive play-calling—to overcome their disadvantages. Washington, on the other hand, will likely try to control the clock and lean on their ground game to wear down Chicago’s defense. The outcome of this game won’t just affect the standings—it could reshape how both teams approach the rest of the season, especially with trade deadlines and playoff positioning coming into focus.
BEARS VS COMMANDERS PREVIEW: KEY MATCHUPS
Commanders’ Rushing Attack vs. Bears” Run Defense: This is arguably the most lopsided matchup heading into Monday night. Washington enters the game with the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and over 156 rushing yards per game. Rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been a breakout star, posting 283 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 43 carries (6.6 YPC). Add in Jayden Daniels’ mobility, and the Commanders present a multi-dimensional ground threat.
On the other side, the Bears have struggled mightily against the run, allowing 6.1 YPC—worst in the league—and ranking 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. Their front seven has been inconsistent, and missed tackles have plagued their linebacking corps. If Chicago can’t contain the run early, Washington will control the clock and limit Caleb Williams’ possessions, which will result in a big fat Bears loss.
Rome Odunze vs. Commanders Secondary: Wide receiver Rome Odunze has quickly become Caleb Williams’ go-to target, leading the Bears with 296 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns through four games. His combination of size, route precision, and contested catch ability makes him a mismatch against most secondaries.
Washington’s pass defense has been vulnerable, allowing 235 passing yards per game and 8 passing touchdowns so far. Their cornerbacks have struggled in man coverage, and Odunze’s ability to win on vertical routes and in the red zone could be a major factor. If Williams has time to throw, expect Odunze to be featured heavily, especially on third downs and in high-leverage situations. This matchup could swing momentum if Odunze breaks loose for a big play or draws coverage that opens up opportunities for other receivers.
Bears Offensive Line vs. Commanders Pass Rush: The trench battle will be critical, especially with the Bears’ offensive line still dealing with injuries and rotation. Chicago has allowed a 5.0% sack rate, which is middle of the pack, but they’ve struggled against teams with strong edge pressure. Washington’s defensive front, led by Dorance Armstrong (5 sacks) and a top-5 ranked unit in total sacks (15), will test the Bears’ protection schemes.
If Darnell Wright returns to stabilize the right side, it could help neutralize some of Washington’s pressure. However, if the Commanders can consistently collapse the pocket, it will force Williams into hurried throws and limit his ability to extend plays. This matchup will be a key indicator of whether Chicago can execute its vertical passing game or be forced into a conservative, quick-pass approach.
BEARS VS COMMANDERS PREVIEW: GAME PREDICTION
Conclusion: Bears Edge Commanders in a Statement Win
In a game loaded with emotional weight, quarterback intrigue, and playoff implications, the Chicago Bears rise to the occasion and deliver a narrow but meaningful victory over the Washington Commanders. The psychological baggage of last season’s Hail Mary loss is finally lifted as Ben Johnson’s squad shows resilience and tactical growth, especially in late-game execution. Caleb Williams outduels Jayden Daniels in a tightly contested quarterback showcase, using his improvisational skill set to generate two key scoring drives in the fourth quarter, including a clutch 27-yard touchdown to Rome Odunze.
The Bears’ defense, while still vulnerable against the run, manages to contain Washington’s ground game just enough to force third-and-long situations, where Daniels struggles to push the ball downfield. Chicago’s aggressive fourth-down play-calling and improved red zone efficiency (2-for-3 on the night) reflect a team embracing high-leverage decisions to overcome statistical disadvantages.
With the win, the Bears improve to 3–2 and see their playoff odds jump from 21% to nearly 40%, injecting new life into their postseason hopes and positioning them as a legitimate Wild Card contender in a volatile NFC. Final score prediction: Bears 27, Commanders 24.
