For years, Paul Skenes has been one of the biggest names in baseball. Ever since the Pittsburgh Pirates selected him first overall in the 2023 MLB draft, his stock has skyrocketed. He has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball, being selected for the All-Star Game in all three seasons. He also won the 2024 Rookie of the Year and the 2025 NL Cy Young Award. He has quickly become one of, if not the best pitchers in baseball, and is someone to build the franchise around.
However, things have not gone as expected. Over the past few months, Paul Skenes has not been his dominant self. In 25 starts this season, he has a 3.88 ERA in 134 2/3 innings with 166 strikeouts to 37 walks, a 1.121 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 112. But things reached a new low in his most recent start. After pitching average for five innings, he was pulled after throwing only 65 pitches. More concerning, he did not throw a single pitch over 96.5 mph, the first time this has happened in his career. With all of this, is it time to start being worried about Skenes?
Should the Pirates be Worried About Paul Skenes
His pitches having lower velocity have been a trend all season. Last season, Skenes’ four-seamer averaged out at 98.2 MPH. However, this season they have averaged 96.8 mph. That is nearly a one-and-a-half mph drop, which is very concerning. It is a sign of fatigue or worse, an injury. To make matters worse, it’s not just his four-seamer that has a lower velocity. While not as dramatic as the drop in his fastball, all of his pitches have seen some sort of drop in average velocity. This is normally a sign of injury or fatigue.
While the Pirates have come out and said that there are no injury concerns, the fatigue theory has some legs to it. He is coming off a 2025 season in which he threw 187 2/3 innings, the most he has thrown in a season. He also accelerated his offseason routine this past season, needing to ramp up for the World Baseball Classic. That is a heavy workload and can create a lot of stress on your arm. That leads to his velocity not being as high, making it easier for hitters to make good contact.
However, despite this drop in velocity, his four-seamer has been rather successful this season. It has produced a .204 opposing batting average and a 29.9 Whiff%. Both are slightly better than last season. What is really hurting Skenes is the difference between the actual stats and expected stats. He’s allowed opposing hitters to have a .228 average and a .375 slugging percentage. However, his expected average is .210, and his expected slugging is .341. His stuff hasn’t gotten worse; he’s just been getting lucky with the contact made.
The Pirates’ defense has also not done Skenes any favors. In games that Skenes starts, the Pirates have a Fielding Run Value of -6. That means that they are allowing six more runs than an average defense. This can explain why there is such a big gap between his actual and expected stats. If Skenes ‘ defense was playing average, his stats would be better. Not what we are used to, but it would be close enough to be written off as an off year and not a sign of bigger issues.
Although the drop in velocity and Skenes’ struggles are concerning, it does not mean he’s no longer a dominant pitcher. He just needs to regain his confidence and get better defense behind him. Once this happens, he should return to his dominant form.
