Every fantasy football season has players who fail to live up to their draft position, and avoiding those landmines can be just as important as finding late-round sleepers. While it’s tempting to chase last year’s production, fantasy managers need to identify when circumstances have changed or when underlying metrics suggest regression is coming. Opportunity, efficiency, offensive environment, and competition all play major roles in determining whether a player can return value at their current ADP. These are three busts I am avoiding at their current ADPs.
Bucky Irving RB (TB)
Bucky Irving enters 2026 with one of the wider ranges of outcomes among running backs, but his current draft cost assumes a bounce-back season that is far from guaranteed. Injuries derailed much of his sophomore campaign, and when he was on the field, the efficiency that made him so exciting as a rookie largely disappeared. Irving finished as the RB36 after averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, the third-lowest mark among qualifying running backs, while scoring only one rushing touchdown all season. His advanced metrics were equally concerning, ranking 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackle rate, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt among qualified backs. Some of that decline can certainly be attributed to the shoulder injury that lingered throughout the season, but durability is beginning to become part of the conversation after Irving also dealt with multiple lower-body injuries during his rookie year. Betting on a complete return to his 2024 efficiency requires a leap of faith that I’m simply not willing to make at his current price.
The bigger concern is that Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has shown little interest in making Irving a true workhorse. Todd Bowles has already described the backfield as a 1A and 1B situation with Kenneth Gainwell, while Sean Tucker also remains a candidate to steal early-down and goal-line opportunities. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from Atlanta, where Tyler Allgeier consistently siphoned valuable touches away from Bijan Robinson near the goal line. Even if Irving is healthier this season, there’s no guarantee he receives the high-value touches necessary to justify his ADP. The talent is undeniable, but the combination of declining efficiency, recurring injuries, and increasing backfield competition makes Irving one of the riskier running backs to draft this year. If he falls multiple rounds below his current ADP, I’d gladly reconsider, but at cost, he’s a player I’m fading.
Chuba Hubbard RB (CAR)
Chuba Hubbard’s breakout 2024 season now feels more like the exception than the expectation after a disastrous follow-up campaign in 2025. Hubbard finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game and eventually lost his starting role to Rico Dowdle despite signing a contract extension before the season. While injuries played a role in his decline, they don’t explain away just how ineffective he was whenever he touched the football. Among qualifying running backs, Hubbard finished dead last in both explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while ranking near the bottom of the league in yards after contact per attempt. Incredibly, he failed to record a single explosive run all season despite handling a significant workload, an almost unheard-of accomplishment for a running back receiving over 140 carries. His inability to create chunk plays or force missed tackles made Carolina’s rushing attack incredibly predictable, and the coaching staff eventually responded by giving Dowdle more opportunities.
Now Hubbard enters 2026 facing an even steeper uphill battle. Jonathon Brooks is finally healthy after spending last season recovering from a torn ACL, and Carolina has every incentive to get the former second-round pick heavily involved. More importantly, Dave Canales has consistently shown throughout his coaching career that he is willing to feature one running back once that player proves deserving of the role. If Brooks flashes the explosiveness that made him one of the top prospects in his draft class, Hubbard could quickly find himself operating as the complementary back rather than the starter. Carolina also faces one of the toughest schedules for opposing running backs this season, making it even more difficult for Hubbard to bounce back. At his current ADP, you’re paying for a player who may not even lead his own backfield by the middle of the season, making him an easy fade in 2026 drafts.
Courtland Sutton WR (DEN)
Courtland Sutton quietly put together another productive fantasy season in 2025, but his overall finish masks several warning signs that make him an easy fade at his current draft cost. Despite operating as Bo Nix’s unquestioned top receiver over the last two seasons, Sutton has still failed to finish higher than WR18 in fantasy points per game. His fantasy value has been driven more by volume than elite efficiency, and that’s a dangerous profile to bet on entering 2026. Last season, Sutton ranked just 40th in fantasy points per target while finishing 85th in separation among qualifying receivers. He remained productive because Denver consistently threw the football at one of the highest rates in the NFL, but he wasn’t creating the kind of efficiency that typically supports another top-20 fantasy finish. With his yards per route run declining for three consecutive seasons and his ability to separate continuing to trend downward, Sutton’s margin for error has become increasingly thin.
That margin shrank even further after Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle this offseason. Waddle immediately becomes the most dynamic receiver on the roster and is likely to command a significant portion of the passing game that previously flowed through Sutton. Unlike previous seasons, there are virtually no vacated targets available within Denver’s offense, meaning Sutton isn’t positioned for additional volume to offset the arrival of another high-end receiver. The Broncos also draw one of the league’s toughest schedules for wide receivers, making weekly consistency even harder to find. Sutton should still have productive games in Denver’s aggressive passing attack, but expecting him to return value at his current ADP requires betting that his target share remains largely intact despite Waddle’s arrival. That’s a gamble I’m not interested in making when there are similarly priced receivers with considerably more upside.
