Finding league-winning value late in fantasy football drafts is often what separates championship rosters from average ones. While the early rounds are all about minimizing risk, the later rounds should be used to chase players capable of dramatically outperforming their draft position. Every season, a handful of players drafted outside the top 100 emerge as weekly starters, and in some cases, league winners thanks to expanded roles, improved situations, or simply being overlooked by the fantasy football community. These are 5 players I expect to outperform their ADP in 2026
Tyler Shough QB (NO) – ADP: 117
Tyler Shough quietly finished his rookie season playing some of the best football of any quarterback in the league, yet his fantasy football ADP still sits outside the top 100 picks. From Weeks 12-18, Shough averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, ranking as the QB5 over that stretch while showcasing legitimate dual-threat upside. His rushing ability became an increasingly important part of his game, averaging 25 rushing yards per game while adding 3 TDs. As a passer, Shough also showed significant growth during the second half of the season, finishing among the league leaders in highly accurate throw rate while ranking ninth in hero throw rate and 12th in yards per attempt among qualifying quarterbacks. (Fantasy Points Data). His 333-yard, two-touchdown performance against Tennessee late in the season demonstrated the type of ceiling he possesses when everything is clicking.
The situation surrounding Shough has only improved entering 2026. New Orleans also made a significant investment in surrounding Shough with better weapons by adding Travis Etienne, Jordyn Tyson, Oscar Delp, and Bryce Lance this offseason, giving him considerably more talent than he had during his rookie campaign. Year-two quarterbacks often make their biggest leap once the game begins to slow down, and Shough already showed enough during the second half of last season to suggest that jump is well within reach. Considering he already flashed QB1 production over an extended stretch and now enters a more explosive offensive environment, he has a legitimate opportunity to finish well above his current ADP and become one of the biggest quarterback values in fantasy football.
Kyler Murray QB (MIN) – ADP: 113
Kyler Murray enters 2026 as one of the easiest late-round quarterbacks to bet on simply because his fantasy football ceiling has not disappeared despite his ADP suggesting otherwise. Every fully healthy season of Murray’s career has resulted in a QB10 finish or better, largely because of the rushing production that few quarterbacks can replicate. He has now averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in seven consecutive seasons, providing one of the safest fantasy floors at the position whenever he is on the field. Injuries limited him to just five games last season, and his efficiency as a passer left plenty to be desired, but those struggles are exactly why his price has fallen outside the top 100 picks. Fantasy managers are essentially drafting Murray at his floor while receiving all of the upside that comes with a quarterback who has consistently produced QB1 numbers throughout his career.
His move to Minnesota gives him arguably the best supporting cast he has ever played with. Justin Jefferson remains the premier wide receiver in football, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings provide other explosive weapons on the outside, and Kevin O’Connell has consistently built one of the league’s most quarterback-friendly passing attacks. Minnesota also projects to have the second-easiest strength of schedule for quarterbacks this season, further boosting Murray’s outlook. While there will naturally be questions following last year’s injuries, the offensive environment is a massive upgrade from what he experienced in Arizona. If Murray simply returns to the level of play he displayed throughout the majority of his career, he’ll easily outperform his current ADP. Add in the possibility that Minnesota unlocks another level of efficiency as a passer, and Murray suddenly becomes one of the highest-upside quarterback selections available in the double-digit rounds.
Jonathon Brooks RB (CAR) – ADP: 102
Jonathon Brooks finally enters a season healthy after spending much of last year working his way back from a torn ACL, and the opportunity sitting in front of him makes him one of the most intriguing running back sleepers in fantasy football. Carolina lost Rico Dowdle this offseason, leaving behind more than 250 touches that now have to be redistributed throughout the backfield. While Chuba Hubbard is expected to open the season as the starter, there are legitimate questions about whether he can hold onto that role for an entire season. Among all qualified running backs last year, Hubbard was the only one who failed to record a single explosive run, highlighting the lack of big-play ability that has limited his ceiling. Brooks, meanwhile, entered the league as one of the most talented running backs in his draft class and offers considerably more explosiveness both as a runner and receiver. Even if Carolina opens the season with a committee approach, Brooks possesses the type of skill set capable of earning a larger workload as the season progresses.
Perhaps the biggest reason to target Brooks is Dave Canales’ coaching history. Throughout his time as both an offensive coordinator and head coach, Canales has consistently shown a willingness to feature one running back once that player earns his trust. Rachaad White finished fourth among running backs in snap share while playing under Canales in Tampa Bay before Chuba Hubbard himself handled nearly 80% of Carolina’s snaps the following season. When Canales identifies his lead back, he has no problem feeding him workhorse-level volume. Brooks has a realistic path to becoming that player if his talent quickly separates him from Hubbard. At an ADP barely inside the top 100, fantasy managers should invest with a thin RB sleeper class. If he claims the featured role at any point this season, he has the upside to emerge as one of the biggest steals at the running back position.
Josh Downs WR (IND) – ADP: 101
Josh Downs finds himself in one of the better breakout situations among wide receivers being drafted outside the top 100 picks. Michael Pittman’s departure leaves behind 111 vacated targets, creating a significant opportunity for Downs to take on a much larger role in Indianapolis’ passing attack. While he averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game in 2024, his overall production took a slight step back last season despite continuing to flash the same efficiency that made him an intriguing young receiver entering the league. Downs ranked 20th among qualifying wide receivers in separation while also finishing inside the top 25 in PFF receiving grade, reinforcing what has consistently shown up on film. He is one of the Colts’ best route runners and creates separation at a high level. He also caught nearly 70% of his targets while converting 36 of his 58 receptions into first downs, proving he can consistently move the chains when given opportunities. His current ADP assumes he’ll remain a complementary option, but the available volume suggests his role could look much different in 2026.
General manager Chris Ballard has already made it clear the organization wants to expand Downs’ workload, and there simply aren’t many established pass catchers left who can absorb Pittman’s targets. The Colts also enter the season with one of the easier schedules for opposing secondaries, giving Downs multiple favorable matchups throughout the year. He may never become a high-volume touchdown scorer, but his ability to consistently separate and earn targets provides an extremely stable fantasy profile in PPR formats. If his target share increases the way many expect, Downs has a realistic path to finishing as a weekly WR3 while being drafted well outside that range, making him one of the better values available after Pick 100.
Greg Dulcich TE (MIA) – ADP: 183
Finding upside at tight end in the final rounds of fantasy football drafts is difficult, but Greg Dulcich offers one of the clearest paths to dramatically outperforming his draft position. Through four NFL seasons, injuries and inconsistent opportunities have prevented him from fully breaking out, totaling just 799 receiving yards and three touchdowns during his career. Despite that underwhelming production, Dulcich walks into one of the best opportunity situations of his career in Miami. The Dolphins enter 2026 with arguably the least proven group of pass catchers in football, as no returning receiver on the roster has eclipsed 610 career receiving yards. Early reports from training camp have also been encouraging, with Dulcich reportedly emerging as the most heavily targeted pass catcher throughout offseason practices. At an ADP outside the top 180 picks, fantasy managers are paying virtually nothing for a player who could realistically finish second on his team in targets.
While Miami’s offense still carries plenty of question marks, someone has to emerge as Malik Willis’ security blanket, and Dulcich fits that profile perfectly. Jeff Hafley arrives after spending time in Green Bay, where tight ends consistently played an important role within the offense, and Dulcich’s athletic profile gives him considerably more upside than most of the late-round tight ends being selected around him. He also benefits from the easiest projected strength of schedule among fantasy tight ends, which, at the end of the day, will play a major role in a potential breakout season. There is certainly risk attached to Miami’s passing game, and Dulcich is far from a guaranteed breakout, but that’s exactly the type of profile fantasy managers should be targeting this late in drafts. If he simply establishes himself as the Dolphins’ primary receiving option, he’ll have little trouble outperforming his TE23 price tag and could emerge as one of the better waiver-wire values that savvy managers draft before the rest of their league catches on.
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