One of the biggest factors that goes into fantasy rankings is how the player did last season. Sure, it’s not the end-all, be-all, but if a player performed well the previous season, they are likely to jump in the rankings and vice versa. But just because a player did well last year, it does not guarantee they will continue. We see guys regress all the time, and it’s best to keep these guys as far away from your roster as possible. Here are five regression candidates to stay away from.
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos RB
Going into last season, RJ Harvey was a rookie many thought could be a breakout star. With the lack of depth in the Denver Broncos running back room, the path was there for him to get a ton of carries. While he wasn’t a star, he still put in a very productive season. In 146 carries, he rushed for 540 yards and seven touchdowns. He also caught 47 passes on 58 targets for 356 yards and five touchdowns. With him being so versatile, it seemed like he was poised to take another step in fantasy production this season.
But with the moves that the Broncos made this offseason, that no longer seems to be the case. They brought back JK Dobbins and drafted Jonah Coleman in the fourth round. It looks like they are going to commit to a three-back system. Coleman also was used in the receiving game at Washington, catching 31 passes for 354 yards last season. It is very possible that Coleman takes the role of receiving back from Harvey. With that, a lot of his opportunity is gone. His stats should take a noticeable step back, which will hurt his fantasy production.
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals TE
Last season, McBride had the breakout everyone was expecting for years. He also had the catches and receiving yards to be the top fantasy tight end, but never had the touchdown numbers to get him over the hump. In fact, he had never finished with more than three touchdowns in a season. But last season he found the end zone 11 times, more than his previous three seasons combined. Couple this touchdown production with his 129 yards and 1,239 yards, and you understand why some have him as the first tight end off the board.
But it is very unlikely he can repeat that type of production. The Arizona Cardinals completely revamped their running back room, signing Tyler Allgier and drafting Jeremiyah Love. This should improve a run attack that averages the second fewest yards per game. We should see the Cardinals lean on them more, lowering the amount they throw the ball. Michael Wilson should also see an increase in volume with him getting the “Puka Nacua” role in Mike LaFleur’s offense. With the draft capital it would take to get McBride, there is better value out there.
Devante Adams, Los Angeles Rams WR
Adams had a renaissance last season and reminded us why he was once one of the best receivers in the league. In 14 games last season, he had 60 catches for 789 yards and an NFL-leading 14 touchdowns. It was the first time he had double-digit touchdowns since 2022. He also averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game, which was the eighth most among qualified receivers. These numbers have him going somewhere between the third and fourth round of drafts.
But Adams’ production came largely from touchdowns. He had a 35.6% target share in the red zone, and had a lot of touchdown passes caught from inside the ten-yard line. This is a number that is unlikely to repeat, causing a big dip in his touchdown production. This will be a massive hit to his fantasy production, as he averaged only 9.76 fantasy points in the five games he did not find the end zone. Adams will not come close to the production his ADP demands, as he is not getting the same touchdown opportunities.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles TE
Although the Philadelphia Eagles offense was terrible last year under Kevin Patullo, Dallas Goedert put in one of the best seasons of his career. He set new career highs with 60 receptions and 11 touchdowns, while also having 591 yards. A large reason for this was Goedert getting a lot of work in the red zone. With the Eagles “tush pushing” less, Goedert picked up the slack. He had a red zone target share of 30% and was their main weapon close to the goal line. It’s what allowed Goedert to be a top-five tight end in fantasy.
But with Sean Mannion taking over as offensive coordinator, it’s unlikely Goedert gets as many opportunities in the red zone as he does. Sure, we don’t know what it will look like, but to expect Goedert to get 30% of targets again would be silly. With a drop in tight ends, it’s unlikely Goedert can maintain the 12.3 fantasy points per game he averaged last season. The Eagles also drafted Eli Stowers in the second round this past draft. He will likely eat into some of Goedert’s volume, causing his fantasy production to dip even more.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints WR
Chris Olave put up the best fantasy season of his career last season. He had 100 receptions for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. This allowed him to average 16.8 fantasy points per game, which was seventh in the league. He and Tyler Shough found an immediate connection that allowed both of them to thrive down the stretch. Shough targeted Olave eight or more times in six of the ten games they played together. This relationship is why many are high on him entering the season.
But with the offseason the Saints had, it’s unlikely Olave will command the same target share. They spent the 8th overall pick on Jordyn Tyson, who should be the wide receiver two from day one. That alone should cut into his target share. They also gave Travis Etienne a four-year deal, giving them a one-two punch of him and Kamara. With that type of investment, it’s likely the Saints will implement more run plans into their offensive attack. Olave should see a dip in both targets and touchdowns, which will hurt his fantasy production.
