Quarterback is deeper than it has ever been entering the 2026 fantasy football season, making it easier than ever to wait on the position and still land a difference-maker. Because of that depth, paying a premium for quarterbacks who carry legitimate question marks becomes much riskier than in previous seasons. Every player on this list has the talent to finish as a fantasy QB1, but their current ADP assumes too much goes right while overlooking several warning signs that could prevent them from returning value.
Fading these quarterbacks doesn’t mean avoiding them entirely. It simply means letting someone else draft them at their current cost while you capitalize on the incredible depth available later in drafts. Here are five quarterbacks I’m avoiding at their current fantasy football ADP.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has been one of fantasy football’s biggest cheat codes throughout his career, but 2025 showed the first real signs that his elite rushing advantage may be starting to fade. Prior to last season, Jackson had finished as the QB3 or better in fantasy points per game three different times while routinely carrying fantasy managers with his legs. Last year was a completely different story. From Weeks 9-18, Jackson averaged just 26.8 rushing yards per game, the lowest mark of his career, while producing only 5.2 rushing attempts per contest after averaging nearly double that workload throughout much of his prime. During that same stretch, he fell all the way to QB20 in fantasy points per game as Baltimore’s offense became far less explosive. The passing efficiency also dipped considerably. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks during that span, Jackson ranked 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in hero throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and posted some of the worst efficiency numbers of his career according to Fantasy Points Data. Those aren’t the underlying metrics you expect from someone being drafted as the QB2.
Some of Jackson’s struggles can certainly be explained by injuries, as he dealt with multiple lower-body issues throughout the season, but fantasy managers have to acknowledge the risk attached to paying such a premium price. Baltimore enters 2026 with a new offensive play-caller, a reworked offensive line, and questions surrounding the receiving corps beyond Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Derrick Henry also remains the centerpiece of the rushing attack, reducing the necessity for Baltimore to expose Jackson to as many designed runs. Could Jackson bounce back and finish as an elite fantasy quarterback again? Absolutely. But at his current ADP, you’re drafting him much closer to his ceiling than his floor. With quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Tyler Shough available several rounds later, I’ll gladly pass on Jackson’s price tag this season.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels enters 2026 carrying one of the widest ranges of outcomes at the quarterback position, which makes his QB5 price tag difficult to justify. Daniels burst onto the fantasy scene as a rookie thanks to his elite rushing ability and aggressive downfield play, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game while looking like one of the league’s next superstar quarterbacks. That momentum completely stalled during his sophomore campaign. Daniels dealt with multiple injuries throughout the season, including knee, hamstring, and elbow issues, causing his completion percentage to drop nearly nine percent while his fantasy production fell to just 16.8 points per game. Although his rushing ability continued to create weekly upside, he simply wasn’t the same dynamic player once the injuries began piling up. When fantasy managers draft Daniels as a top-five quarterback, they’re assuming he immediately returns to his rookie-year production despite coming off a significantly worse season.
The situation around Daniels also isn’t nearly as favorable as it was entering last year. Kliff Kingsbury is gone, forcing Daniels to learn another offensive system, while Washington still lacks proven weapons outside of Terry McLaurin despite adding Stefon Diggs. The offensive line also remains a concern after struggling throughout much of last season, and the Commanders draw the 26th-ranked schedule for fantasy quarterbacks. Daniels unquestionably possesses league-winning upside because of his rushing ability, but quarterback is simply too deep this year to draft someone with this much volatility inside the top five at the position. I’d much rather let another manager pay for Daniels’ ceiling while targeting similarly talented quarterbacks several rounds later at a much better value.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts has been one of fantasy football’s safest quarterbacks for several years, but his current QB6 price tag assumes he’ll continue producing elite rushing numbers while maintaining efficiency as a passer. The problem is both of those trends have started moving in the wrong direction. Hurts has now failed to eclipse 3,300 passing yards in back-to-back seasons, continuing to operate more as a game manager than a high-volume passer within Philadelphia’s offense. While that hasn’t mattered much historically because of his rushing production, even that has begun to decline. His rushing EPA and overall rushing efficiency both fell noticeably last season, and his success rate on short-yardage runs has steadily dropped over the last three years. In 2023, Hurts converted 86.4% of his rushing attempts needing fewer than three yards for a first down or touchdown. That number fell to 77.1% in 2024 before dropping again to just 67.9% last season. Those are meaningful declines for a quarterback whose fantasy ceiling has always relied heavily on his legs.
Philadelphia also enters 2026 looking considerably different offensively after moving on from A.J. Brown. While the Eagles still have talented young playmakers, replacing one of the league’s most dominant receivers isn’t something that happens overnight. Hurts now enters another season needing to develop chemistry with a younger supporting cast while continuing to operate in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses. Yes, Philadelphia owns the easiest quarterback schedule in football this year, which certainly raises Hurts’ floor, but fantasy managers drafting him at QB6 are paying for a player whose fantasy profile is becoming increasingly touchdown-dependent. Quarterback is simply too deep this season to invest a premium pick into someone whose rushing production has already started trending downward. Hurts can absolutely finish as a QB1 again, but I’d much rather draft a quarterback later with similar upside at a significantly cheaper cost.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix finished as a fantasy QB1 last season, but his overall finish hides just how concerning many of his underlying metrics actually were. Denver led the NFL in passing attempts, allowing Nix to accumulate fantasy production almost entirely through volume rather than efficiency. Among qualified quarterbacks, he ranked 31st in catchable target rate, 32nd in true passer rating, and averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt despite throwing more passes than anyone else in football. His success rate also remained among the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, continuing a trend that began during his rookie season. While fantasy managers often point toward his final ranking as evidence of a breakout, the advanced metrics suggest his production was built on one of the league’s most pass-heavy offensive environments rather than elite quarterback play. If Denver’s passing volume even slightly regresses in 2026, it’s difficult to envision Nix maintaining QB1 production.
The bigger concern is what happens if his rushing ability takes a step back following the significant ankle injury he suffered during the postseason. Nix has quietly relied on his legs to stabilize his fantasy value over the last two seasons, totaling more than 750 rushing yards while scoring several key rushing touchdowns. If that mobility is even slightly diminished, his fantasy profile becomes far less attractive because his passing efficiency simply hasn’t been good enough to compensate. Denver certainly upgraded the receiving corps by acquiring Jaylen Waddle, but adding another weapon doesn’t suddenly erase the accuracy concerns that have followed Nix since entering the league. With so many proven quarterbacks available later in drafts, I have very little interest in paying QB15 prices for someone whose fantasy production depended heavily on volume and rushing touchdowns last season. The quarterback position is too deep this year to bet on that profile repeating itself.
Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis is one of the most fascinating quarterback values in fantasy football because his rushing upside gives him legitimate league-winning potential, but his current ADP has climbed high enough that the risk is beginning to outweigh the reward. Willis flashed exciting fantasy upside whenever he saw extended playing time over the last two seasons, averaging over 10 yards per attempt while consistently creating explosive plays outside of structure. His athleticism remains among the best at the position, and rushing quarterbacks will always possess elevated fantasy ceilings. However, projecting that upside over an entire season requires a significant leap of faith given how little sustained success Willis has shown as a full-time NFL starter. Fantasy managers are now drafting him closer to his ceiling rather than acknowledging just how volatile his weekly floor could become.
The surrounding situation in Miami also creates far more questions than answers. Following the departures of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins arguably possess the weakest receiving corps in football. Greg Dulcich has generated positive buzz throughout training camp and could become Willis’ favorite target, but beyond him, Miami lacks proven pass catchers capable of consistently separating against NFL defenses. That puts enormous pressure on Willis to create offense on his own, something few quarterbacks can sustain over an entire season. His rushing production will certainly produce spike weeks, but relying on those splash plays every Sunday is an incredibly volatile fantasy strategy. At his current ADP, I’d much rather invest in quarterbacks playing within more stable offensive environments than bet on Willis overcoming one of the league’s weakest supporting casts.
Fantasy Football Busts
| RK | Player | Pos | PPR | Half PPR | Standard | Bye | Value | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey |
RB | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 88.85 | |
| 2 | Drake London |
WR | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 83.37 | |
| 3 | De’Von Achane |
RB | 13 | 14 | 20 | 6 | 79.82 | |
| 4 | George Pickens |
WR | 16 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 74.74 | |
| 5 | Trey McBride |
TE | 17 | 22 | 21 | 14 | 73.12 | |
| 6 | Tetairoa McMillan |
WR | 25 | 28 | 29 | 5 | 61.63 | |
| 7 | Breece Hall |
RB | 40 | 37 | 43 | 13 | 46.07 | |
| 8 | Travis Etienne Jr. |
RB | 47 | 43 | 47 | 8 | 40.80 | |
| 9 | Jameson Williams |
WR | 51 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 38.21 | |
| 10 | DJ Moore |
WR | 52 | 62 | 62 | 7 | 37.61 | |
| 11 | Jayden Daniels |
QB | 54 | 58 | 55 | 7 | 36.44 | |
| 12 | Bucky Irving |
RB | 58 | 54 | 52 | 10 | 34.28 | |
| 13 | TreVeyon Henderson |
RB | 59 | 55 | 61 | 11 | 33.77 | |
| 14 | Marvin Harrison Jr. |
WR | 67 | 72 | 71 | 14 | 30.12 | |
| 15 | Courtland Sutton |
WR | 72 | 77 | 77 | 10 | 28.16 | |
| 16 | RJ Harvey |
RB | 77 | 85 | 88 | 10 | 26.41 | |
| 17 | Chuba Hubbard |
RB | 78 | 74 | 78 | 5 | 26.08 | |
| 18 | Makai Lemon |
WR | 93 | 91 | 91 | 10 | 21.87 | |
| 19 | Jake Ferguson |
TE | 104 | 114 | 120 | 14 | 19.47 | |
| 20 | Jordan Addison |
WR | 107 | 105 | 96 | 6 | 18.89 | |
| 21 | Dalton Kincaid |
TE | 109 | 107 | 97 | 7 | 18.52 | |
| 22 | Jayden Reed |
WR | 112 | 111 | 114 | 11 | 17.99 |
