Wide receiver might be deeper than ever in fantasy football, but that doesn’t mean every player is being drafted at the right price. With so many viable options available throughout the middle rounds, reaching for a receiver whose ADP already assumes his best-case outcome can be just as costly as completely missing on a player.
That’s what separates my targets and avoids this season. Ladd McConkey, Parker Washington, and Wan’Dale Robinson are being drafted at prices that leave considerable room for them to outperform expectations. Drake London, George Pickens, and Tetairoa McMillan are all talented receivers who could have productive seasons, but their current ADPs require outcomes I’m not willing to pay for. Here are three wide receivers I’m targeting and three I’m avoiding in 2026.
TARGET: Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers – ADP WR20
Ladd McConkey’s sophomore season was disappointing, but I’m willing to bet much more heavily on what he showed as a rookie than what we saw in Greg Roman’s offense last year. McConkey averaged an elite 2.6 yards per route run during his rookie season and finished as the WR13 in fantasy points per game before falling to WR34 last year. Even during that down season, there was a massive difference in his efficiency whenever Los Angeles put him in motion. McConkey’s yards per route run increased 93% when used in motion, while his first downs per route run jumped 150% and his fantasy points per route increased 75%. Those splits make the Chargers’ decision to replace Roman with Mike McDaniel one of my favorite coaching changes for fantasy football this offseason.
McDaniel used pre-snap motion 19% more frequently than the league average, and his offenses have consistently been designed around manufacturing space for their best receivers. His WR1 has averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, which would put McConkey firmly back into the range he reached as a rookie. Keenan Allen’s departure also creates an opportunity for McConkey to establish himself as Justin Herbert’s clear top target. We already know McConkey can produce borderline WR1 numbers without an offense being specifically designed around his strengths. Now he gets a playcaller whose system emphasizes exactly what made him so efficient. At WR20, I’m buying the bounce-back with legitimate top-10 upside.
AVOID: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – ADP WR7
Drake London has developed into one of the better young receivers in football, but there’s a difference between liking the player and liking his price. London remained excellent when healthy last season, catching 68 passes for 919 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing five games. He ranked eighth among receivers in yards per route run, fifth in target share, and third in red-zone target share. The concern is that some of his other metrics weren’t nearly as dominant. London finished 57th in average depth of target and 70th in separation, leaving him heavily dependent on maintaining one of the largest target shares in football to produce like an elite fantasy receiver.
That’s a difficult projection to make at WR7 with Kevin Stefanski taking over the offense. Stefanski has never produced a receiver with a target share above 28%, and Atlanta also enters the season with uncertainty at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa have already dealt with injuries, creating the possibility that London once again has to overcome inconsistent quarterback play. Kyle Pitts is also coming off a career season and gives Atlanta another proven target earner alongside Bijan Robinson. London can overcome all of that and still have another strong year, but that’s not enough at this price. Fantasy managers are drafting him to produce like an elite WR1, and I don’t see enough separation between his median projection and the receivers available several picks later to justify the cost.
TARGET: Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP WR30
Few receivers were better for fantasy managers down the stretch last season than Parker Washington. Over Jacksonville’s final four regular-season games, Washington averaged 22.3 fantasy points and 113 receiving yards per game while commanding a 28.9% target share. His underlying efficiency was just as impressive, as he averaged 3.78 yards per route run while drawing 13 deep targets and six red-zone opportunities during that stretch. Washington then carried that production into the postseason, catching seven passes for 107 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo. This wasn’t simply a receiver compiling short receptions because injuries forced Jacksonville to throw him the football. Washington was creating explosive plays at every level of the field.
There is obvious target competition with Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter all in Jacksonville, but that’s also why Washington remains available around WR30. He finished last season eighth among wide receivers in deep targets and 16th in yards per route run while emerging as Trevor Lawrence’s most productive target when the Jaguars’ offense was playing its best football. His role as Jacksonville’s primary slot receiver is especially intriguing in Liam Coen’s offense, and the Jaguars have the fifth-easiest projected schedule for fantasy receivers. Washington doesn’t need to maintain the ridiculous pace we saw over the final month to beat this price. If that stretch represented the beginning of a legitimate breakout, he’s being drafted considerably closer to his floor than his ceiling.
AVOID: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys – ADP WR10
George Pickens was one of the biggest hits of the 2025 fantasy season, catching 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns while establishing himself as one of the NFL’s premier vertical threats. His skill set paired perfectly with Dak Prescott, and Dallas’ defensive struggles consistently created game environments that allowed Pickens to pile up opportunities downfield. It was easily the best season of his career and exactly the type of breakout fantasy managers had been waiting for. The problem is that his new WR10 price assumes much of that career season will immediately happen again.
Pickens’ production was noticeably different when CeeDee Lamb was available. With Lamb healthy, Pickens averaged approximately 15.5 fantasy points per game while commanding only a 20.4% target share. That’s still strong production, but it’s much closer to WR2 territory than what fantasy managers are currently paying for. Lamb remains the focal point of Dallas’ passing attack and should lead the team in targets, designed opportunities, and red-zone usage. The Cowboys also enter the year with the second-toughest projected schedule for fantasy receivers. Pickens doesn’t have to suddenly become a bad player for this selection to disappoint. Some regression in his yards per reception or touchdowns could be enough to turn him into a solid WR2 after fantasy managers drafted him as a borderline WR1.
TARGET: Wan’Dale Robinson – ADP WR40
Wan’Dale Robinson quietly produced one of the biggest wide receiver breakouts of 2025. He finished as the WR14 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 26.8% target share, which ranked 11th among qualified receivers. Robinson also ranked 11th in first-read share and averaged 63.4 receiving yards per game. More importantly, his role finally expanded beyond the underneath usage that defined the beginning of his career. Robinson’s average depth of target climbed to a career-high 8.7 yards, and he finished 21st among qualified receivers in deep targets while producing 1.94 yards per route run. He wasn’t simply piling up empty PPR receptions anymore.
His move to Tennessee introduces more target competition, but it also keeps Robinson paired with Brian Daboll, the coach who helped unlock that breakout. The Titans committed to Robinson with a four-year contract and should utilize him as one of their primary receivers alongside fourth-overall pick Carnell Tate and Calvin Ridley. That probably makes another 26% target share unrealistic, but Robinson doesn’t need to repeat last year’s volume to beat a WR40 price. Cam Ward also showed significant improvement down the stretch last season, throwing for more than 1,300 yards with 10 touchdowns and only one interception over his final seven full games. If Ward takes another step under the new coaching staff, Robinson has a realistic path to weekly WR2/3 production. Getting last year’s WR14 in fantasy points per game around WR40 is a discount I’m willing to take.
AVOID: Tetairoa McMillan – ADP WR16
Tetairoa McMillan’s rookie season confirmed that Carolina found its No. 1 receiver. He immediately commanded a 22.5% target share and an enormous 42.4% share of the Panthers’ air yards while accounting for 28.5% of the team’s first-read opportunities. McMillan turned that volume into more than 1,000 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Those are impressive numbers for any rookie, and there’s every reason to believe McMillan will continue developing into one of the NFL’s better receivers. The question for fantasy managers isn’t whether he’s good. It’s whether his situation allows him to make the leap already being priced into his WR16 ADP.
McMillan’s rookie production required massive opportunity, yet he still ranked only 49th in fantasy points per target. Bryce Young also ranked 66th in quarterback rating when targeting him, while Carolina remains one of the slower and more run-heavy offenses in football under Dave Canales. There are also reasons to believe McMillan won’t completely dominate opportunities. Jalen Coker finished only one percentage point behind him in target share when both were healthy, and McMillan’s target share dipped below 20% over Carolina’s final five games. Add the 22nd-ranked schedule for fantasy receivers, and I’m struggling to find the path where McMillan significantly beats this price without Young and the entire Panthers passing attack taking a substantial step forward. McMillan could become a star and still be overvalued at WR16 in 2026.
